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Ripple Effect

It’s All About that Monetary Base

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

August 19, 2025 • 1 minute, 36 second read


goldHousingvaluation

It’s All About that Monetary Base

Despite a frozen real estate market, home prices remain near record highs. Your local market may vary, but affordability is still out of reach for many.

Fortune noted over the weekend that homebuyers in their 70s now outnumber those in their 30s. It’s part of a demographic trend.

By this age, Baby Boomers owned 21% of the nation’s wealth. Generation X, a little less at 14%. But, Millennials, the first of whom are now turning 40, own just 4.3% of the national bounty.

That stat alone should raise eyebrows.

But the bigger issue isn’t demographics — it’s the system we’ve lived under since August 15, 1971.

Once the dollar was removed from gold, asset prices — homes, stocks, everything — have been driven higher not by productivity gains but by the steady erosion of purchasing power.

Turn Your Images On

Priced in gold, not dollars, homes roughly what they were in the 50s and 80s.  (Source: X/Twitter)

Homes priced in gold:

  • In 1950, the middle-class home cost about $8,000—or 150 ounces of gold.
  • Today, 150 ounces of gold equals roughly $510,000. That’s more than the national average home price of $421,000.

Gold continues to hold purchasing power across decades and currencies. Whether measured in houses or in stocks, the message is the same: the dollar loses ground, gold does not.

Yesterday, for the first time, we saw an independent gold survey suggesting that gold would match the trend we see in gold prices, sending prices still higher from here.

~ Addison

P.S. Still, the Fed is expected to cut rates in September. With lower rates, mortgages would trend lower and the housing market may thaw—but only because debt gets cheaper, not because the economy is stronger.

Such a move risks kicking off a “most terrifying bull market” in stocks, which sends those valuations into the stratosphere before they come crashing down to earth.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


The Debasement “Trade”

November 18, 2025 • Mark Jeftovic

Bitcoin isn’t a trade and trying to time it with chart patterns generally does not work.

I’ve never really felt like technical analysis carried much real predictive edge in general and when it comes to BTC, I’ve seen too many failed “death crosses” to change my opinion.

The one that just triggered in mid-November as bitcoin flirted with $90,000 is just the latest.

What really matters? It’s a monetary regime change – if market participants are trading anything it’s getting rid of a currency (“it’s the denominator, stupid”) for a store of value – and we’re seeing it in spades with Bitcoin and gold.

The Debasement “Trade”
The Cult of Stock Market Riches

November 18, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

White-collar hiring is, in fact, slowing. Engel’s Pause is taking hold of the jobs picture.

In the meantime, everyday Americans are rediscovering an ancient truth: there is wisdom in wearing steel-toed boots.

Jobs that struggle to attract bodies in boom times are now seeing stampedes of applicants.

– Georgia’s Department of Corrections: applications up 40%.

– The U.S. military: reached 2025 recruiting goals early.

– Waste management staffing: applications up 50%.

For now, economists call this “labor market tightness.” Anyone who has ever scrubbed a grease trap knows it by another name: fear.

The Cult of Stock Market Riches
Whales Buy the Bitcoin Dip

November 18, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Bitcoin has historically weathered 30%+ corrections while still in a bull market. 

Global liquidity fears and lower odds of a Fed rate cut in December are driving bitcoin and other cryptos lower at present. 

As Andrew Zatlin described on Thursday’s Live! we can expect a series of stimulus efforts next year, ahead of the midterms, driving new liquidity. The $2,000 “tariff rebate” checks President Trump has been touting are but one example.

When higher liquidity hits the market – in whatever form it takes – today’s bitcoin buyers will be waiting.

Make like the whales, and use market selloffs and stimulus to your advantage.

Whales Buy the Bitcoin Dip
Private Credit’s Creditanstalt Moment

November 17, 2025 • Andrew Packer

The market seems to know something about private credit that we don’t. And in a big enough liquidity event for private credit, investors will have to sell off more liquid assets if they want capital.

That’s the danger private credit poses today, exactly at a time when rules are being eased to make it easier for retail investors like us to buy into this asset class.

I’m in the camp that this smells like a way to keep the party going by providing another source of liquidity – the passive investment flows from your regular 401(k) contributions. The smell takes on a sour note as this sector starts to falter.

Perhaps today’s selloff is simply a reaction to declining interest rates, the growth of private credit, and a few inevitable deals that have gone sour recently.

Private Credit’s Creditanstalt Moment