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Ripple Effect

It’s All About that Monetary Base

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

August 19, 2025 • 1 minute, 36 second read


goldHousingvaluation

It’s All About that Monetary Base

Despite a frozen real estate market, home prices remain near record highs. Your local market may vary, but affordability is still out of reach for many.

Fortune noted over the weekend that homebuyers in their 70s now outnumber those in their 30s. It’s part of a demographic trend.

By this age, Baby Boomers owned 21% of the nation’s wealth. Generation X, a little less at 14%. But, Millennials, the first of whom are now turning 40, own just 4.3% of the national bounty.

That stat alone should raise eyebrows.

But the bigger issue isn’t demographics — it’s the system we’ve lived under since August 15, 1971.

Once the dollar was removed from gold, asset prices — homes, stocks, everything — have been driven higher not by productivity gains but by the steady erosion of purchasing power.

Turn Your Images On

Priced in gold, not dollars, homes roughly what they were in the 50s and 80s.  (Source: X/Twitter)

Homes priced in gold:

  • In 1950, the middle-class home cost about $8,000—or 150 ounces of gold.
  • Today, 150 ounces of gold equals roughly $510,000. That’s more than the national average home price of $421,000.

Gold continues to hold purchasing power across decades and currencies. Whether measured in houses or in stocks, the message is the same: the dollar loses ground, gold does not.

Yesterday, for the first time, we saw an independent gold survey suggesting that gold would match the trend we see in gold prices, sending prices still higher from here.

~ Addison

P.S. Still, the Fed is expected to cut rates in September. With lower rates, mortgages would trend lower and the housing market may thaw—but only because debt gets cheaper, not because the economy is stronger.

Such a move risks kicking off a “most terrifying bull market” in stocks, which sends those valuations into the stratosphere before they come crashing down to earth.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


The Hindenburg Five

February 24, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The Hindenburg Five
Piercing The Veil

February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time.   That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Piercing The Veil
Oh. Canada

February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

Oh. Canada
Matt Milner: SpaceX + xAI: What It Means for You

February 20, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!

Matt Milner: SpaceX + xAI: What It Means for You