Is the New Golden Age Possible? We Do the Math. [Podcast]

The Wall Street Journal released its latest economic forecast survey.

This is where they ask leading economists what they think inflation and economic growth will be in 2025 and beyond.

The results were pretty incredible. Between the last survey, in October before the election, and this month’s survey, the predictions for US economic growth have increased dramatically.

Optimism is clearly everywhere, not just in the economic forecasts but also the labor market, stock market, etc.

One of the reasons for that, obviously, is that Americans were just promised a New Golden Age of prosperity.

We’ve written before, many times, that America’s gargantuan fiscal challenges are still fixable.

But a Golden Age? Is that really feasible?

Well, above everything else at this organization, we are intellectually honest, and we let the math be our guide. And in today’s podcast, we actually do the math at a high level and discuss whether that Golden Age actually is possible.

Spoiler alert: it is!

But it’s gong to require what I believe are modest budget cuts— roughly $300 billion— and significantly higher economic growth.

When you think about it, it’s really something to be said that the US, i.e. the most advanced economy in the world, only clocks around 2% “real” GDP growth each year.

Given America’s population growth, the literally tens of trillions of dollars of investable capital, the massive pool of talent, and innovation, 2% growth is utterly pathetic. Talk about under-achieving your potential.

It’s deregulation, ease of doing business, and tax policy that can really move the needle on that growth.

And these are all completely realistic goals.

At the same time, there are so many forces and entrenched special interests that will battle against reform. So while there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic, it’s not a forgone conclusion.

That’s why it makes so much sense to have a Plan B.

We talk about all this and more in today’s podcast, as we walk through the math on the New Golden Age.

To your freedom,

James Hickman
Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

The Wall Street Journal released its latest economic forecast survey.

This is where they ask leading economists what they think inflation and economic growth will be in 2025 and beyond.

The results were pretty incredible. Between the last survey, in October before the election, and this month’s survey, the predictions for US economic growth have increased dramatically.

Optimism is clearly everywhere, not just in the economic forecasts but also the labor market, stock market, etc.

One of the reasons for that, obviously, is that Americans were just promised a New Golden Age of prosperity.

We’ve written before, many times, that America’s gargantuan fiscal challenges are still fixable.

But a Golden Age? Is that really feasible?

Spoiler alert: it is!

But it’s gong to require what I believe are modest budget cuts— roughly $300 billion— and significantly higher economic growth.

When you think about it, it’s really something to be said that the US, i.e. the most advanced economy in the world, only clocks around 2% “real” GDP growth each year.

It’s deregulation, ease of doing business, and tax policy that can really move the needle on that growth.

And these are all completely realistic goals.

At the same time, there are so many forces and entrenched special interests that will battle against reform. So while there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic, it’s not a forgone conclusion.

That’s why it makes so much sense to have a Plan B.

We talk about all this and more in today’s podcast, as we walk through the math on the New Golden Age.

To your freedom,

James Hickman
Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

the BLS claims the healthcare and social assistance sector added +58,000 jobs per month over the past three months.

Meanwhile, ADP shows the same sector losing an average of -33,300 jobs per month. That’s a 91,300 job gap — after years when the two data services have tracked closely.

Worse, the Labor Department just revised down -911,000 jobs from the past 12 months — the largest revision in U.S. history, bigger even than 2009.

Private hiring was overstated by -880,000 jobs.

Trade, transport, leisure, hospitality — all quietly cut back. Excluding healthcare, the U.S. economy has actually lost 142,200 jobs over the past four months.

The revisions are so large they now rival the global financial crisis.

If June’s downward revision of -27,000 is counted, that’s -285,000 over two months, the worst outside of 2020.

The housing market has been effectively frozen for three years.

That’s because, following record-low interest rates, homeowners refinanced with mortgages under 3%. Today, standing over 6%, the same home would have more than double the amount of interest each month.

Unsurprisingly, then, home prices have started to weaken as rates have remained high.

Every 50% tariff WILL make dollar alternatives more attractive.

Every threat WILL push BRICS members closer together.

Every sanctions regime WILL prove why they need payment systems that don’t run through New York.

You can take that to the bank.

The irony is that Trump’s sarcastic quips about “losing” India and Russia to China are starting to look less like jokes and more like forecasts. Treat countries like enemies long enough, and eventually they’ll start acting like it.

Money-market funds sit at a record ~$7.4 trillion.

That’s yield-seeking capital refusing duration or equity risk — classic post-bust behavior we saw after 2000, 2008, and in 2020–21.

If the Fed trims 25 or 50 bps on September 17, front-end yields will start to drift down. No stampede, but the carry edge erodes and rotation begins: first into Treasuries for safety and liquidity, then — if confidence holds —into risk assets.

Scale is the wildcard.