Is the New Golden Age Possible? We Do the Math. [Podcast]

The Wall Street Journal released its latest economic forecast survey.

This is where they ask leading economists what they think inflation and economic growth will be in 2025 and beyond.

The results were pretty incredible. Between the last survey, in October before the election, and this month’s survey, the predictions for US economic growth have increased dramatically.

Optimism is clearly everywhere, not just in the economic forecasts but also the labor market, stock market, etc.

One of the reasons for that, obviously, is that Americans were just promised a New Golden Age of prosperity.

We’ve written before, many times, that America’s gargantuan fiscal challenges are still fixable.

But a Golden Age? Is that really feasible?

Well, above everything else at this organization, we are intellectually honest, and we let the math be our guide. And in today’s podcast, we actually do the math at a high level and discuss whether that Golden Age actually is possible.

Spoiler alert: it is!

But it’s gong to require what I believe are modest budget cuts— roughly $300 billion— and significantly higher economic growth.

When you think about it, it’s really something to be said that the US, i.e. the most advanced economy in the world, only clocks around 2% “real” GDP growth each year.

Given America’s population growth, the literally tens of trillions of dollars of investable capital, the massive pool of talent, and innovation, 2% growth is utterly pathetic. Talk about under-achieving your potential.

It’s deregulation, ease of doing business, and tax policy that can really move the needle on that growth.

And these are all completely realistic goals.

At the same time, there are so many forces and entrenched special interests that will battle against reform. So while there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic, it’s not a forgone conclusion.

That’s why it makes so much sense to have a Plan B.

We talk about all this and more in today’s podcast, as we walk through the math on the New Golden Age.

To your freedom,

James Hickman
Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

The Wall Street Journal released its latest economic forecast survey.

This is where they ask leading economists what they think inflation and economic growth will be in 2025 and beyond.

The results were pretty incredible. Between the last survey, in October before the election, and this month’s survey, the predictions for US economic growth have increased dramatically.

Optimism is clearly everywhere, not just in the economic forecasts but also the labor market, stock market, etc.

One of the reasons for that, obviously, is that Americans were just promised a New Golden Age of prosperity.

We’ve written before, many times, that America’s gargantuan fiscal challenges are still fixable.

But a Golden Age? Is that really feasible?

Spoiler alert: it is!

But it’s gong to require what I believe are modest budget cuts— roughly $300 billion— and significantly higher economic growth.

When you think about it, it’s really something to be said that the US, i.e. the most advanced economy in the world, only clocks around 2% “real” GDP growth each year.

It’s deregulation, ease of doing business, and tax policy that can really move the needle on that growth.

And these are all completely realistic goals.

At the same time, there are so many forces and entrenched special interests that will battle against reform. So while there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic, it’s not a forgone conclusion.

That’s why it makes so much sense to have a Plan B.

We talk about all this and more in today’s podcast, as we walk through the math on the New Golden Age.

To your freedom,

James Hickman
Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

Silver is now up 54% year-to, err, month-to-date. And up over 280% since the start of 2025.

While we don’t know how much further upside is left, prior parabolic moves like these tend to lead to big pullbacks when they end.

“If you’re tempted to take a screenshot of your portfolio, it’s a good idea to take some profits while you’re doing that,” suggests our Portfolio Director, Andrew Packer.

We’d do so to grab some of those silver profits, simply because even though we started dollar-cost-averaging (DCA) into gold and silver in 2018 – silver was $16.47 – no assets can go parabolic, like silver has, indefinitely.

Gold and silver are making new highs. Gold knocked on the door of $5,100 in overnight trading in Shanghai this morning. Silver, not to be outdone, is driving resource traders wild, cracking $116 up 15% today alone.

A year ago, one bitcoin bought roughly 40 ounces of gold. Today it buys 18.

Bitcoin was marketed as digital gold. Instead, Wall Street wrapped it in ETFs, margin accounts, and structured products.

We’ve entered a new territory on Wall Street: for the first time in recorded history, zero strategists are predicting a down year.

Not “most are bullish.”

Not “nearly all expect gains.”

Zero bearish calls for 2026.

Unanimity so complete it resembles a vote in a collapsing authoritarian state.

The Bank of Japan’s holdings of its own government’s bonds are now near a 10-year low.

The yen carry trade has been a constant in global finance for 3 decades. Currently, the unwind is throwing the Japanese government into a crisis of historic proportions.

Americans take note. Not only are Japanese bonds undermining the AI rally on Wall Street. The crisis is a cautionary tale for the U.S. efforts to finance its own historic debt load.