Is the New Golden Age Possible? We Do the Math. [Podcast]

The Wall Street Journal released its latest economic forecast survey.

This is where they ask leading economists what they think inflation and economic growth will be in 2025 and beyond.

The results were pretty incredible. Between the last survey, in October before the election, and this month’s survey, the predictions for US economic growth have increased dramatically.

Optimism is clearly everywhere, not just in the economic forecasts but also the labor market, stock market, etc.

One of the reasons for that, obviously, is that Americans were just promised a New Golden Age of prosperity.

We’ve written before, many times, that America’s gargantuan fiscal challenges are still fixable.

But a Golden Age? Is that really feasible?

Well, above everything else at this organization, we are intellectually honest, and we let the math be our guide. And in today’s podcast, we actually do the math at a high level and discuss whether that Golden Age actually is possible.

Spoiler alert: it is!

But it’s gong to require what I believe are modest budget cuts— roughly $300 billion— and significantly higher economic growth.

When you think about it, it’s really something to be said that the US, i.e. the most advanced economy in the world, only clocks around 2% “real” GDP growth each year.

Given America’s population growth, the literally tens of trillions of dollars of investable capital, the massive pool of talent, and innovation, 2% growth is utterly pathetic. Talk about under-achieving your potential.

It’s deregulation, ease of doing business, and tax policy that can really move the needle on that growth.

And these are all completely realistic goals.

At the same time, there are so many forces and entrenched special interests that will battle against reform. So while there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic, it’s not a forgone conclusion.

That’s why it makes so much sense to have a Plan B.

We talk about all this and more in today’s podcast, as we walk through the math on the New Golden Age.

To your freedom,

James Hickman
Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

The Wall Street Journal released its latest economic forecast survey.

This is where they ask leading economists what they think inflation and economic growth will be in 2025 and beyond.

The results were pretty incredible. Between the last survey, in October before the election, and this month’s survey, the predictions for US economic growth have increased dramatically.

Optimism is clearly everywhere, not just in the economic forecasts but also the labor market, stock market, etc.

One of the reasons for that, obviously, is that Americans were just promised a New Golden Age of prosperity.

We’ve written before, many times, that America’s gargantuan fiscal challenges are still fixable.

But a Golden Age? Is that really feasible?

Spoiler alert: it is!

But it’s gong to require what I believe are modest budget cuts— roughly $300 billion— and significantly higher economic growth.

When you think about it, it’s really something to be said that the US, i.e. the most advanced economy in the world, only clocks around 2% “real” GDP growth each year.

It’s deregulation, ease of doing business, and tax policy that can really move the needle on that growth.

And these are all completely realistic goals.

At the same time, there are so many forces and entrenched special interests that will battle against reform. So while there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic, it’s not a forgone conclusion.

That’s why it makes so much sense to have a Plan B.

We talk about all this and more in today’s podcast, as we walk through the math on the New Golden Age.

To your freedom,

James Hickman
Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC

The Nasdaq logged its fourth straight down week, pulled lower by the “SaaSpocalypse” in software.

Goldman Sachs’ Software Basket fell 16% for the week. Hedge fund exposure to software shrank sharply, according to Prime Book data.

Lou Miller, Goldman’s global head of Equity Custom Baskets, told clients that buyers remained scarce even as the group entered oversold territory.

In the late 1990s, telecom infrastructure outpaced demand, pricing compressed, and equity valuations adjusted long before usage caught up.

Today’s AI buildout carries healthier balance sheets and real utility, yet capital intensity remains high, and patience wears thin when returns depend on perfect adoption curves.

The week’s trading revealed that a rotation out of high-flying tech into defensive names is well underway. The Dow, which includes broader, non-tech-related stocks, is starting the week above 50,000 for the first time in its history.

The most important moment in finance this week didn’t happen in a committee room or on cable television. It took place over coffee last week in Davos.

Brian Armstrong, the founder and CEO of Coinbase, was mid-conversation with former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair when Jamie Dimon stepped in, pointed a finger, and said, “You are full of s—.”

Dimon wasn’t debating crypto theory. He was defending deposits.

Armstrong had spent the week accusing large banks of leaning on lawmakers to kneecap digital-asset legislation that threatens their core franchise. Dimon, whose firm sits atop the U.S. deposit pile, heard enough. According to people familiar with the exchange, he told Armstrong to stop lying on television.

Bitcoin is now selling off at a pace last seen at bear-market bottoms in 2018 and 2022.

Our trading channel was buzzing yesterday. Traders are actively seeking the bottom and trying to plot a way back in!

Indeed, bitcoin is rebounding and back up to $68,000 in today’s trading. Nail-biting stuff.