GSI Banner
  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Grey Swan Forecasts
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • My Account
  • Sign In
  • Join Now

  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Grey Swan Forecasts
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • Contact

© 2026 Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

  • Cookie Policy
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information
  • Whitelist Us
Swan Dive

Insiders Ring the Bell, Again

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

February 2, 2026 • 1 minute, 12 second read


Insiders

Insiders Ring the Bell, Again

When corporate insiders sell their own shares, it’s a good signal that the markets are overvalued. This month, the insider sale-to-buy ratio has jumped to its highest level since late 2024:

Turn Your Images On

Insider sales have spiked to a level last seen in late 2024. (Source: The Washington Service)

Corporate insiders began ringing the cash register just as the S&P 500 touched 7,000. Given that the market is up over 40% from last April’s “Liberation Day” lows, a modicum of profit-taking is wise.

~ Addison

P.S.  “If it ain’t broke,” is how Andrew Packer kicked off the review of the Grey Swan Model Portfolio on Friday. The high market valuation was only part of the conversation during our quarterly review. Catch the replay in the members section of the Grey Swan website.

Turn Your Images On

Precious metals also figured prominently during the review with a 10-sigma move in silver, which tanked 32%. Peak-to-trough, gold also fell 9%, under $5,000.

Markets appear concerned about Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s pick for the next Fed Chair. Warsh is a sound money advocate who would like to see the central bank’s balance sheet reduced. A great goal, but it would also require a more austere fiscal policy.

Expect some market whiplash – but the reasons for holding gold and silver (especially in physical form) remain intact.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!,  or have any questions for our guests, send them here.


Gold Shivers, Wear A Coat

February 2, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

For months, speculation swirled like chimney smoke in a snowstorm. Would Trump tap a dove? A loyalist? A Wall Street man in a red hat? Warsh checks none of those boxes — and all of them.

 He’s a former Fed governor, a Goldman alum, and a card-carrying skeptic of central bank omnipotence. 

He’s said, “The Fed is not independent from government. It is independent within government,” which sounds like something out of a fortune cookie written by Hayek. 

He doesn’t want the Fed playing God, and he’s not keen on printing money to mop up Congress’s mess. He believes in limits. In credibility. In consequences.

Gold Shivers, Wear A Coat
Hayek Heads to the Fed

January 30, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Kevin Warsh, former Fed governor and one-time Morgan Stanley hand, is officially President Trump’s pick to replace Jerome Powell as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

The choice is meant to be brazen, if not entirely unexpected. Despite having been nominated in his first go in the Oval Office, Trump has been gunning for Jerome Powell since Day One of his second term.

Now, Warsh, whose libertarian-leaning critique of the Fed has hovered like a drone over Jackson Hole for years, will succeed Powell should the Senate confirm him before May 15, 2026.

Hayek Heads to the Fed
Silver Gets Hammered As Retail Piles In

January 30, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The analysis we’ve published of the main drivers for gold applies to silver and bitcoin, too. The latter two, however, remain more speculative and gap down and spike up more dramatically.

If you’re leveraged to silver, whether through mining companies, ETFs, or the like, it may be prudent to take some profits off the table. And keep your eyes peeled for future moves upward.

Silver Gets Hammered As Retail Piles In
A (Brief) Sign Of Markets To Come

January 29, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

In one refrain from our book Empire of Debt, we warned that late-stage credit systems always suffer the same fate: the debasement of money disguised as growth. Ray Dalio said the quiet part out loud in an interview yesterday:

“If you depreciate the money, it makes everything look like it’s going up.”

Which is precisely why the markets get jittery at the top. And why politics are as wacky and polarized as they have been.

In New York, Mayor Zohran Mamdani is demanding higher taxes on the rich to plug budget holes left by former Mayor Adams. He wants billions from Albany. Governor Hochul has yet to weigh in.

In California, Sergey Brin, Eric Schmidt, and other Silicon Valley billionaires are backing a new pro-business PAC to fight a proposed 5% wealth tax on the state’s 200 richest residents. Larry Page has already moved to Florida. The line to Nevada is forming.

Ray Dalio, again, with the map:

“When governments run large deficits and the debt is no longer bought willingly, they have two choices: raise taxes and cut spending, or print money. Those that can print, do. Those that can’t, fall apart.”

Populist politics surge. Moderates vanish. Scapegoating begins. The wealth gap widens until it becomes an impassable chasm.

A (Brief) Sign Of Markets To Come