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Swan Dive

Insiders Ring the Bell, Again

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

February 2, 2026 • 1 minute, 12 second read


Insiders

Insiders Ring the Bell, Again

When corporate insiders sell their own shares, it’s a good signal that the markets are overvalued. This month, the insider sale-to-buy ratio has jumped to its highest level since late 2024:

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Insider sales have spiked to a level last seen in late 2024. (Source: The Washington Service)

Corporate insiders began ringing the cash register just as the S&P 500 touched 7,000. Given that the market is up over 40% from last April’s “Liberation Day” lows, a modicum of profit-taking is wise.

~ Addison

P.S.  “If it ain’t broke,” is how Andrew Packer kicked off the review of the Grey Swan Model Portfolio on Friday. The high market valuation was only part of the conversation during our quarterly review. Catch the replay in the members section of the Grey Swan website.

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Precious metals also figured prominently during the review with a 10-sigma move in silver, which tanked 32%. Peak-to-trough, gold also fell 9%, under $5,000.

Markets appear concerned about Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s pick for the next Fed Chair. Warsh is a sound money advocate who would like to see the central bank’s balance sheet reduced. A great goal, but it would also require a more austere fiscal policy.

Expect some market whiplash – but the reasons for holding gold and silver (especially in physical form) remain intact.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!,  or have any questions for our guests, send them here.


Hedge Funds Crowd the “Sell America” Trade

February 10, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Funds net sold U.S. equities for a fourth straight week, at the fastest clip since the opening chapter of the Trump trade war on April 2, 2025.

Despite that positioning, the indexes pushed higher on Monday.

Dip buyers stepped in after last week’s slide and nudged indexes back toward their highs.
Chipmakers gained ground, and a software ETF tacked on close to 7% across two sessions, a quick counterpoint to the sector’s recent purge. Sameer Samana at Wells Fargo Investment Institute described the move as the market’s reflex after steep selloffs—fast hands cover, slower money watches.

Hedge Funds Crowd the “Sell America” Trade
Bitcoin Approaches Its Final Million

February 10, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Every ten minutes, the bitcoin network completes another block of transaction data. Another bitcoin miner seeks a reward.

The reward is cut in half every four years, thanks to the “halving protocol” which established the coin’s scarcity algorithm. Next month, total bitcoin supply will hit 20 million, leaving just 1 million left to be mined.

Bitcoin Approaches Its Final Million
Broad Market Rally Meet Narrowing Political Window

February 9, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The Nasdaq logged its fourth straight down week, pulled lower by the “SaaSpocalypse” in software.

Goldman Sachs’ Software Basket fell 16% for the week. Hedge fund exposure to software shrank sharply, according to Prime Book data.

Lou Miller, Goldman’s global head of Equity Custom Baskets, told clients that buyers remained scarce even as the group entered oversold territory.

In the late 1990s, telecom infrastructure outpaced demand, pricing compressed, and equity valuations adjusted long before usage caught up.

Today’s AI buildout carries healthier balance sheets and real utility, yet capital intensity remains high, and patience wears thin when returns depend on perfect adoption curves.

Broad Market Rally Meet Narrowing Political Window
Correlation Breakdown

February 9, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The week’s trading revealed that a rotation out of high-flying tech into defensive names is well underway. The Dow, which includes broader, non-tech-related stocks, is starting the week above 50,000 for the first time in its history.  

Correlation Breakdown