Dave Hebert: How Long Could That $1.8 Billion Powerball Jackpot Fund the Government?

“A lottery is the perfect tax…laid only upon the willing.”

-George Washington

September 16, 2025 — In 2022, I described what Congress could do with the $2.04 billion Powerball jackpot. The result, which should surprise no one, was “not much.” But just how “not much” turned out to be staggering. At the time, the nation was still plagued by COVID-related stimulus and spending packages, and we were being led by the Biden/Harris Administration, which was no stranger to increased government spending.

With the recent $1.8 billion Powerball jackpot, it’s time for an update. Has a new Administration obsessively determined to root out “waste, fraud, and abuse” and to improve “government efficiency,” succeeded in turning back the tide of government spending?

Based on budget figures for FY2025, Powerball bucks could cover the Pentagon’s $859 billion spending for 18 hours and 36 minutes. Social Security (annual price tag $1.57 trillion) burns through the Powerball winnings in barely 10 hours. The $1.75 trillion Congress is slated to spend on healthcare, including Medicare and Medicaid, would swallow the jackpot in just nine hours.

The federal government’s $7.03 trillion budget means that Congress spends the equivalent of the Powerball winnings every 2 hours and 15 minutes — 24 hours per day, 7 days per week, 365 days per year. One day’s worth of federal spending is equivalent to ten jackpots.

Even more sobering to consider is the federal deficit for this year. With Congress scheduled to spend $1.9 trillion it does not have, America would have to win the Powerball over 1,000 times just to balance the federal budget. With three drawings per week, our Congressional leaders would have to win a $1.8 billion jackpot for the next six and a half years just to pay for this year’s excess spending. All this, and they still would not even begin to touch the $37.4 trillion national debt.

These simple facts highlight a sobering reality: we cannot tax our way out of what is clearly a spending crisis. When winning one of the largest lottery jackpots every single day still would not fill the gaping hole in our federal budget, the problem is not the shovel, but the size of the hole we keep digging. We need real solutions, not cheap political promises to root out “waste, fraud, and abuse” while spending continues to climb. Plenty of politicians, from both the Left and the Right, have promised to fix the problem of our national debt. None have succeeded. The reason for this is simple: Congress is set up to spend money.

With the passage of the Second Liberty Bond Act in 1917, Congress effectively gave itself a credit card. Initially, this credit card was intended to be used only in case of emergencies. However, like any kid given a credit card for “emergency use only,” Congress kept finding new “emergencies.”

Today, this borrowed money is used for everything from pet projects (political largesse benefiting a small number of politically connected people), to core functions, to infrastructure expansions and everything in between. Consider the Pentagon’s $640 toilet seats, the Air Force’s $1,300 coffee mugs, or the lavish spending promoted by “use it or lose it” budget rules, such as a $9,341 leather chair. This is not fiscal responsibility. It is lunacy.

Worse yet: Congress has the power to raise the debt ceiling whenever it wishes. This would be like a credit card company letting a teenager decide what the spending limit on their “emergency use only” credit card should be, while sticking mom and dad with the bill and the credit score ramifications.

Prior to the Second Liberty Bond Act of 1917, Congress could still issue debt. But instead of having a pre-approved debt limit, Congress had to authorize each and every debt issuance on a project-specific basis. Major spending projects, such as the Panama Canal and the Louisiana Purchase, were decided in this way.

With project-specific debt authorization, policymakers were required to go on the record as supporting borrowing for identifiable purchases. Voters, then, could evaluate policymakers’ votes, seeing exactly where any debts were holding them accountable at the ballot box for any fiscal malfeasance. With the passage of the Second Liberty Bond Act, the national debt jumped from $5 billion in 1917 to $15 billion in 1918. It would never be that low again.

Today, voters are presented with omnibus appropriations packages; bills scored against baseline projections that give the impression of saving money while really just increasing spending more slowly; and continuing resolutions to adjust spending growth, instead of actual spending.

Our fiscal reality is clearly unsustainable. With the passage of the “Big Beautiful” budget reconciliation bill, Congress has already given itself permission to grow the national debt to $41 trillion. Interest payments on the national debt are already the second-most-expensive item on the federal budget, behind only Social Security (and ahead of defense spending). As the national debt continues to grow, debt service will become our number one spending obligation. History suggests it’s only a matter of time until we hit that limit and, unless things change, once again raise the debt ceiling. This cannot continue indefinitely.

The truth is that we cannot tax our way out of a spending crisis. When the second-largest lottery jackpot in US history represents little more than a drop in the bucket to our political leaders, the solution is no longer cheap political talk, but real reform. This will require real limits on federal spending, automatic triggers that force real spending cuts instead of hollow debates that ultimately lead to raising our debt ceiling and worsening our credit rating, and entitlement reforms that acknowledge both demographic and fiscal realities. Until that happens, Congress continues to spend lottery-jackpot sums every two hours and fifteen minutes, and it’s taxpayers who keep losing in the gamble.

Dave Hebert
The Daily Economy & Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

P.S. from Addison: In Grey Swan Live! with Adam O’Dell this week, we’ll explore policy changes the Trump administration is making to encourage $10 trillion in money market funds parked on the sidelines during the terrifying bull market on Wall Street to get in the game!

Mr. O’Dell suggests this may be the most significant transfer of wealth in our lifetimes… greater than 2009-’10 amid the Global Financial Crisis. We’ll dig into the details on Thursday. Here’s how you can join us.

If you’d like, you can drop your most pressing questions right here: Feedback@GreySwanFraternity.com. We’ll be sure to work them in during the conversation.