High Income Spenders Slowing, Too

As of early 2026, the top 10% of households own roughly 93% of stocks while the bottom 50% hold only 1%–2% of net worth.

The divergence has been defined by soaring upper-income spending, record CEO pay, and a shrinking middle class. The lower-income groups face inflation, high debt, and precarious employment.

Latest retail numbers show even big spenders are slowing down. Overall, adjusted for inflation, spending dropped below zero.

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Retail sales numbers were buoyed by the top tier of high-income. Now, adjusted for inflation, spending is in decline. (Source: Zero Hedge)

In 2025, the top 10% of households owned 93% of U.S. stocks, driving wealth concentration to 60-year highs. Those high-income households accounted for nearly 60% of total personal spending by the third quarter of 2025.

Wage disparity and an asset wealth gap define fractious politics in this midterm year. And help explain why both parties appear to be talking only to themselves.

~ Addison

P.S. On a macro level, U.S. debt , foreign ownership of stocks, and gold reserves all hit inflection points in late 2025. There’s a regime shift underway that will benefit individual investors who can spot the trends.

On Grey Swan Live! at 2 p.m. on Thursday, February 12, 2026, U.S. Global Investors Frank Holmes will show how those trends are playing out in his portfolio of global ETFs.

Here’s what’s driving the conversation:

Foreign holders were paid a record $292 billion in interest on U.S. Treasurys in Q3 2025 — more than double 2020 levels.
Foreign investors now hold $9.1 trillion in U.S. debt, four times the amount held just two decades ago.
Central banks are quietly rebalancing reserves — gold’s share has surged from 13% to 24% since 2021, overtaking the dollar for the first time.

Meanwhile, Washington is betting that crypto assets and stablecoins can create a bigger, more efficient market for U.S. debt, extending the dollar’s reserve-currency status.

But there’s a catch.

As Frank will explain, the banking lobby is pushing hard to lock its monopoly on the US national savings and restrict Dollar 2.0 assets through new regulation.

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If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

As of early 2026, the top 10% of households own roughly 93% of stocks while the bottom 50% hold only 1%–2% of net worth.

The divergence has been defined by soaring upper-income spending, record CEO pay, and a shrinking middle class. The lower-income groups face inflation, high debt, and precarious employment.

Latest retail numbers show even big spenders are slowing down. Overall, adjusted for inflation, spending dropped below zero.

Turn Your Images On

Retail sales numbers were buoyed by the top tier of high-income. Now, adjusted for inflation, spending is in decline. (Source: Zero Hedge)

Wage disparity and an asset wealth gap define fractious politics in this midterm year. And help explain why both parties appear to be talking only to themselves.

~ Addison

On Grey Swan Live! at 2 p.m. on Thursday, February 12, 2026, U.S. Global Investors Frank Holmes will show how those trends are playing out in his portfolio of global ETFs.

Here’s what’s driving the conversation:

Foreign holders were paid a record $292 billion in interest on U.S. Treasurys in Q3 2025 — more than double 2020 levels.
Foreign investors now hold $9.1 trillion in U.S. debt, four times the amount held just two decades ago.
Central banks are quietly rebalancing reserves — gold’s share has surged from 13% to 24% since 2021, overtaking the dollar for the first time.

Meanwhile, Washington is betting that crypto assets and stablecoins can create a bigger, more efficient market for U.S. debt, extending the dollar’s reserve-currency status.

But there’s a catch.

As Frank will explain, the banking lobby is pushing hard to lock its monopoly on the US national savings and restrict Dollar 2.0 assets through new regulation.

Turn Your Images On

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

The live question is whether Beijing can keep funding military modernization, AI self-reliance and geopolitical reach while growth cools, property sours and energy costs rise.

The companion question is whether Trump can use Iran as leverage against Beijing without turning a strategic flank into a financial sinkhole. Those are the pressure points on the board this morning.

The U.S. dollar and Treasurys lie in the balance. Gold is, as has been historically true for millennia, the apolitical asset of choice.

Retail investors learned they could successfully buy the Liberation Day drop last April. But that was a 20% broad-based sell-off, a single event.

Today is a different year, a different setup. Retail “buy the dippers” are going to struggle in a market near all-time highs that is also rotating out of the AI trade.

Hold some cash to find bargains during a broader, sustained correction.

The global economy still runs through pipes, ports and chokepoints.

The Gulf remains the hinge between old energy and new industry.

Data centers need power. AI needs a stable infrastructure. The dollar system still prefers secure shipping lanes and orderly settlement.

Washington wants the Gulf calm enough to keep that architecture standing while the next layer of digital finance gets argued over in committee rooms and bank lobbies. Riyadh wants security, leverage and a larger chair at the table when the AI buildout starts choosing permanent winners.

Markets go through many Grey Swan cycles – moves that are rare, but forecastable.

Events unfolding in the Middle East fit a pattern… an 11-year cycle tied to sunspot activity.