Cash Is Still King

Institutional investors continue to trim stock positions. A post-Buffett Berkshire Hathaway is adding to its hoard of T-bills.

But retail investors? They haven’t gotten the caution memo.

Following their robotic “buy any and all dips” policy, retail investors now have an incredibly low cash allocation today, of about 14% of assets:

Turn Your Images On

Retail investors programmed to buy any market dip are running low on reserve cash. (Source: i3 Invest)

Retail investors learned they could successfully buy the Liberation Day drop last April. But that was a 20% broad-based sell-off, a single event.

Today is a different year, a different setup. Retail “buy the dippers” are going to struggle in a market near all-time highs that is also rotating out of the AI trade.

Hold some cash to find bargains during a broader, sustained correction.

~ Addison

P.S. Thank you if you joined us on Friday for a special Grey Swan Live! from inside the Rarcoa Vault in Chicago. The reserved Silver Eagle set we had reserved was quite popular, and just a few more remain.

Grey Swan Live! returns to its regular time this week, 2 p.m. ET on Thursday.

John Robb, author of Brave New War and Grey Swan Investment Fraternity contributor, joins us for a discussion on the war with Iran, how it’s being fought, and what it means for the dollar and other assets.

Turn Your Images On

With market volatility on the rise and a new set of global challenges arising from this conflict, you won’t want to miss out on this week’s Grey Swan Live!

Robb’s expertise on network warfare is central to understanding the Trump strategy for disrupting operations by killing 40 top Iranian leaders. In a globally-connected tech economy in the 21st century, the strategies and weapons of warfare are evolving rapidly.

Institutional investors continue to trim stock positions. A post-Buffett Berkshire Hathaway is adding to its hoard of T-bills.

But retail investors? They haven’t gotten the caution memo.

Following their robotic “buy any and all dips” policy, retail investors now have an incredibly low cash allocation today, of about 14% of assets:

Turn Your Images On

Retail investors programmed to buy any market dip are running low on reserve cash. (Source: i3 Invest)

Retail investors learned they could successfully buy the Liberation Day drop last April. But that was a 20% broad-based sell-off, a single event.

Today is a different year, a different setup. Retail “buy the dippers” are going to struggle in a market near all-time highs that is also rotating out of the AI trade.

Hold some cash to find bargains during a broader, sustained correction.

~ Addison

Grey Swan Live! returns to its regular time this week, 2 p.m. ET on Thursday.

Turn Your Images On

With market volatility on the rise and a new set of global challenges arising from this conflict, you won’t want to miss out on this week’s Grey Swan Live!

The live question is whether Beijing can keep funding military modernization, AI self-reliance and geopolitical reach while growth cools, property sours and energy costs rise.

The companion question is whether Trump can use Iran as leverage against Beijing without turning a strategic flank into a financial sinkhole. Those are the pressure points on the board this morning.

The U.S. dollar and Treasurys lie in the balance. Gold is, as has been historically true for millennia, the apolitical asset of choice.

The global economy still runs through pipes, ports and chokepoints.

The Gulf remains the hinge between old energy and new industry.

Data centers need power. AI needs a stable infrastructure. The dollar system still prefers secure shipping lanes and orderly settlement.

Washington wants the Gulf calm enough to keep that architecture standing while the next layer of digital finance gets argued over in committee rooms and bank lobbies. Riyadh wants security, leverage and a larger chair at the table when the AI buildout starts choosing permanent winners.

Markets go through many Grey Swan cycles – moves that are rare, but forecastable.

Events unfolding in the Middle East fit a pattern… an 11-year cycle tied to sunspot activity.

There’s just something about collectibles. Perhaps it’s because you’re holding something tangible in your hand, not just a share of a company. I certainly get a lot of joy looking through my coin collection or researching prices on pieces I want to acquire someday.

Collectibles had a moment in the sun in 2021 and 2022, as investors were looking for an inflation hedge. The space has cooled off a bit, making now an optimal time to consider investing in collectibles.

While today’s focus – and my personal interest – is in rare coins – you may be more interested in stamps, art, antiques, even vintage cars. In the collectible space, there’s something for everyone. That’s part of the joy.

More importantly, with collectibles out of favor, it may be a good asset to rotate some of your wealth into.