Grey Swan Live! this Thursday

When we compare apples to apples—median home prices to median household income, both annualized—we get a much more nuanced picture. Housing has indeed become less affordable, with the price-to-income ratio climbing from roughly 3.5 in 1984 to about 5.3 today. In other words, the typical American family now has to work much harder to afford the same home.

But notice something crucial: the steepest increases coincide precisely with periods of massive government intervention. The post-dot-com bubble recovery fueled by Fed easy money after 2001. The housing bubble inflated by government-backed mortgages and Fannie Mae shenanigans. The recent explosion driven by unprecedented monetary stimulus and COVID lockdown policies.

It’s hardly a secret that the national debt has surpassed $37 trillion.

This morning, the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, released a survey showing 79% of Americans say they are deeply concerned about the fiscal outlook, across party lines. The Fiscal Confidence Index sits at 49 — well below neutral.

The public sees what the market ignores: pressure on interest rates, inflation risk, and a government living beyond its means.

Yes,  growth is slowing down. What can you expect when  you have 50% growth happening year over year over year?

At some point in time that stops.

We’re seeing the first signs of that with Nvidia reporting a slowdown in AI server revenues – but that’s hardly reflected in the market price yet.

So right now, jobless claims are in a sweet spot that coincides with a pretty decent economy, 225,000 plus or minus.

Why are they hovering so low? And the reason I believe has to do with fear of deportation.

I believe that the Hispanic community is not applying for the jobless benefits that they’re entitled to because they are afraid of being deported. There are lots and lots of anecdotes out there of workers showing up at a government agency and being nabbed by ICE and being deported.

So rather than run the risk of deportation, these folks would rather run the risk of just not having as much money in their pocket from being eligible for jobs claims and not filing. Lemme explain by talking about California. In general, nationally right now, jobless claims are up about 10% year over year, except when we talk California, and that’s where everything signals under reporting.