Gold’s Relative Strength

Gold’s recent push from $4,000 to $4,400 proved to be too much, too fast.

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After reaching its most “overbought” reading ever, gold is back to a neutral range. (Source: Zerohedge)

Relative strength, or RSI, provides investors with a quick glance as to how much the market likes or hates a given asset. The correction is a welcome event for hard asset investors.

With the metal back under $4,000, our thesis remains untouched.

In fact, the pullback – while sharp and severe – makes gold a less expensive insurance policy against geopolitical shocks and other Grey Swan events.

Gold remains a buy.

~ Addison

P.S. This week on Grey Swan Live! we’re pivoting to the advent of Trump’s economic nationalism and US military readiness for future conflicts.

We’ll be joined by John Robb, our go-to analyst on the geopolitics of the Trump tariff strategy, the global networked intifada and the rise of drone warfare in Ukraine.

A former consultant to the military’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, Robb has a unique insight into innovations at the forefront of autonomous weapons and how they are changing geopolitical strategy. With the markets rallying on positive news of a U.S.-China trade deal today, John will identify the next global hotspots…

And some of the more attractive investment opportunities as AI and tech disrupt the traditional defense industry and its dependence on U.S. government bureaucracy.

Click here to sign up and become an annual member of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity today so that you can join us live this Thursday.

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If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Gold’s recent push from $4,000 to $4,400 proved to be too much, too fast.

Turn Your Images On

After reaching its most “overbought” reading ever, gold is back to a neutral range. (Source: Zerohedge)

Relative strength, or RSI, provides investors with a quick glance as to how much the market likes or hates a given asset. The correction is a welcome event for hard asset investors.

With the metal back under $4,000, our thesis remains untouched.

In fact, the pullback – while sharp and severe – makes gold a less expensive insurance policy against geopolitical shocks and other Grey Swan events.

Gold remains a buy.

~ Addison

P.S. This week on Grey Swan Live! we’re pivoting to the advent of Trump’s economic nationalism and US military readiness for future conflicts.

We’ll be joined by John Robb, our go-to analyst on the geopolitics of the Trump tariff strategy, the global networked intifada and the rise of drone warfare in Ukraine.

And some of the more attractive investment opportunities as AI and tech disrupt the traditional defense industry and its dependence on U.S. government bureaucracy.

Click here to sign up and become an annual member of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity today so that you can join us live this Thursday.

Turn Your Images On

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Copper and resources are sending us a cleaner market signal than AI stocks.

Channeling Ludwig von Mises, we observe this morning that price is not just a number; it’s information. Price reflects what buyers and sellers collectively believe: demand, scarcity, fear, speculation, disappointment, future expectations and available supply.

When prices rise, and inventories fall at the same time, the message is usually straightforward: buyers need the stuff, and there is not enough of it.

A low VIX does not predict disaster. It measures complacency. A serial skeptic will read it as the calm before a storm. We shook off that feeling this morning and opted to pursue an opportunity instead.

Here goes:

A VIX reading below 15 means the market is not pricing in much near-term trouble, even though there are obvious risks still sitting in the room: Iran, oil prices, memory chip speculation, circular financing, high valuations, epic high concentrations, spiking long-term interest rates, a regime change at the Fed, a meltdown in Japan and a historic deficit and rising national debt.

Money is not flowing in a clean, straight line from outside investors to productive businesses. The firms at the top are investing in and buying from each other.

Microsoft and OpenAI are the easiest examples to follow.

Microsoft says OpenAI has contracted to purchase an additional $250 billion in Azure services, while Microsoft continues to account for $13 billion in funding commitments to OpenAI as an investment.

At this stage, it’s a stock picker’s market.

We expect space, robotics and some more visible tech startups to remain sources of speculation. After weakness in the first half of 2026, we’re also due for a strong rotation of capital into natural resources, precious metals, critical minerals and energy.

Copper and resources are sending us a cleaner market signal than AI stocks.

When prices rise, and inventories fall at the same time, the message is usually straightforward: buyers need the stuff, and there is not enough of it.

Here goes:

Money is not flowing in a clean, straight line from outside investors to productive businesses. The firms at the top are investing in and buying from each other.

Microsoft and OpenAI are the easiest examples to follow.

Microsoft says OpenAI has contracted to purchase an additional $250 billion in Azure services, while Microsoft continues to account for $13 billion in funding commitments to OpenAI as an investment.

At this stage, it’s a stock picker’s market.