Gold’s Primary Trend Remains Intact

Gold is likely to trend higher in the months ahead. We expect the price to break $3,500.

It’s basic.

Whether you measure gold in dollars, Euro, yen, or rubles, those are fiat currencies. The supply of every one of them is growing faster than the new supply of gold coming to market.

Here’s a remarkable new fact:

Foreign central banks now hold more gold than U.S. Treasury assets.

Turn Your Images On

Global central banks continue to sell U.S. Treasury bonds and stockpile gold at near nominal all-time highs (Source: Bloomberg, Tavi Costa)

In modern finance theory, only U.S. T-bills are considered risk-free assets.

Central banks are telling us they believe the real risk-free asset is gold.

Our Grey Swan research shows exactly how the dynamic between government finance and gold is playing out in real time.

Take a look.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with Andrew Zatlin was phenomenally lucid. If you’re a paid-up member and you missed it – that’s a mistake.

We examined a historic setup in the stock market: seasonal weakness versus an ill-timed rate cut promise. The blow-off rally into 2026 is upon us. You’ll want to catch the full recoding, up on the Grey Swan site now.

P.P.S. Hopefully you’re also aware we’re hosting a free live tax seminar on how to keep more of your investment proceeds with IRS-compliant strategies today.

August 29, at 1 p.m. ET. Registration is free and easy — reserve your spot here.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: Addison@GreySwanFraternity.com.

Gold is likely to trend higher in the months ahead. We expect the price to break $3,500.

It’s basic.

Whether you measure gold in dollars, Euro, yen, or rubles, those are fiat currencies. The supply of every one of them is growing faster than the new supply of gold coming to market.

Here’s a remarkable new fact:

Foreign central banks now hold more gold than U.S. Treasury assets.

Turn Your Images On

Global central banks continue to sell U.S. Treasury bonds and stockpile gold at near nominal all-time highs (Source: Bloomberg, Tavi Costa)

In modern finance theory, only U.S. T-bills are considered risk-free assets.

Central banks are telling us they believe the real risk-free asset is gold.

Our Grey Swan research shows exactly how the dynamic between government finance and gold is playing out in real time.

Take a look.

~ Addison

P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with Andrew Zatlin was phenomenally lucid. If you’re a paid-up member and you missed it – that’s a mistake.

P.P.S. Hopefully you’re also aware we’re hosting a free live tax seminar on how to keep more of your investment proceeds with IRS-compliant strategies today.

August 29, at 1 p.m. ET. Registration is free and easy — reserve your spot here.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: Addison@GreySwanFraternity.com.

There’s something about big, round numbers that draws investors like moths to a flame.

In the stock market, every 1,000 points in the Dow or 100 points in the S&P 500 tends to act like a magnet.

Now, after consolidating for five months, gold has broken higher to $4,000.

AI stocks are running hot. They’re not the only game in town… but they’re about half of it.

JPMorgan just reviewed all of the 500 companies in the S&P 500. A full 41 of them are AI-related. While that’s less than 10% of the index by total, it is over 45% of the index by market cap.

Overspending during periods of rising ASPs is self-destructive. For most products, today’s ASP increases result less from natural demand pull and more from supplier-enforced discipline. If memory makers treat them as justification for a capex binge, they will repeat past mistakes and trigger another collapse.

The $50 billion bull case for WFE in 2026 rests on a faulty assumption. Lam and AMAT may benefit from selective investments, but the cycle-defining upturn Morgan Stanley describes is unlikely.

Investors should temper expectations. If history repeats — and memory markets have a way of doing so — the companies that preserve pricing power will outperform, while equipment suppliers may find that the promised order boom never fully materializes.

Europe’s GDP has flatlined over the past 15 years, against a doubling in GDP for the U.S. and even bigger GDP gains in China.

While the U.S. leads the world in AI spending, and China leads in technology like drones, what does Europe lead the world in? Regulation.

They spend more time penalizing U.S. tech firms for regulatory violations than encouraging their own tech ecosystem.