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Ripple Effect

Gold’s Primary Trend Remains Intact

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

August 29, 2025 • 1 minute, 22 second read


central banksgold

Gold’s Primary Trend Remains Intact

Gold is likely to trend higher in the months ahead. We expect the price to break $3,500.

It’s basic.

Whether you measure gold in dollars, Euro, yen, or rubles, those are fiat currencies. The supply of every one of them is growing faster than the new supply of gold coming to market.

Here’s a remarkable new fact:

Foreign central banks now hold more gold than U.S. Treasury assets.

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Global central banks continue to sell  U.S. Treasury bonds and stockpile gold at  near nominal all-time highs (Source: Bloomberg, Tavi Costa)

In modern finance theory, only U.S. T-bills are considered risk-free assets.

Central banks are telling us they believe the real risk-free asset is gold.

Our Grey Swan research shows exactly how the dynamic between government finance and gold is playing out in real time.

Take a look.

~ Addison

 

P.S. Yesterday’s Grey Swan Live! with Andrew Zatlin was phenomenally lucid. If you’re a paid-up member and you missed it – that’s a mistake.

We examined a historic setup in the stock market:  seasonal weakness versus an ill-timed rate cut promise. The blow-off rally into 2026 is upon us. You’ll want to catch the full recoding, up on the Grey Swan site now.

P.P.S. Hopefully you’re also aware we’re hosting a free live tax seminar on how to keep more of your investment proceeds with IRS-compliant strategies today.

Register for the free event here:

August 29, at 1 p.m. ET. Registration is free and easy — reserve your spot here.

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If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: Addison@GreySwanFraternity.com.


Grey Swan Forecast #6: China Annexes Taiwan — Without a Shot Fired

December 26, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Our forecast will feel obvious in hindsight and controversial in advance — the hallmark of a Grey Swan.

Most analysts we speak to are thinking in terms of the history of Western conflict. 

They expect full-frontal military engagement.

Beijing, from our modest perch, prefers resolution because resolution compounds its power. Why sacrifice the workshop of the world, when cajoling and bribery will do?

Taiwan will not fall.

It will merge.

Grey Swan Forecast #6: China Annexes Taiwan — Without a Shot Fired
Grey Swan Forecast #7: A Global Debt Crisis Will Reprice Democracy

December 24, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Wars, technology races, and political upheavals — all of them rest on fiscal capacity.

In 2026, that capacity will tighten across the developed world simultaneously. Democracies will discover that generosity financed by debt carries conditions, whether voters approve of them or not.

Bond markets will not shout so much as clear their throats. Repeatedly.

Grey Swan Forecast #7: A Global Debt Crisis Will Reprice Democracy
Seven Grey Swans, One Year Later

December 23, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Taken together, the seven Grey Swans of 2025 behaved less like isolated events and more like interlocking stories readers already recognize.

The year moved in phases. A sharp April selloff cleared leverage quickly. Policy shifted toward tax relief, lighter regulation, and renewed tolerance for liquidity. Innovations began to slowly dominate the marketplace conversation – from Dollar 2.0 digital assets to AI-powered applications in all manner of commercial enterprises, ranging from airline and hotel bookings to driverless taxis and robots. 

Seven Grey Swans, One Year Later
2025: The Lens We Used — Fire, Transition, and What’s Next… The Boom!

December 22, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Back in April, when we published what we called the Trump Great Reset Strategy, we described the grand realignment we believed President Trump and his acolytes were embarking on in three phases.

At the time, it read like a conceptual map. As the months passed, it began to feel like a set of operating instructions written in advance of turbulence.

As you can expect, any grandiose plan would get all kinds of blowback… but this year exhibited all manner of Trump Derangement Syndrome on top of the difficulty of steering a sclerotic empire clear of the rocky shores.

The “phases” were never about optimism or pessimism. They were about sequencing — how stress surfaces, how systems adapt, and what must hold before confidence can regenerate. And in the end, what do we do with our money?!

2025: The Lens We Used — Fire, Transition, and What’s Next… The Boom!