“The golden rule of negotiating and success:
He who has the gold makes the rules.”
― Donald Trump
October 17, 2025 — Gold is the ultimate store of value.
Even with the recent rise of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies — there still isn’t any alternative that can even compare to the durability, staying power, and lasting appeal of the yellow metal.
As Agora Founder and perennial goldbug Bill Bonner likes to say, “Gold buys as much bread in 2025 as it did the year 25 AD.” And he’s not wrong. Over the long term, gold’s value has persisted like no other.
But that’s the long term.
Short-term gold performance is a much different story…
Gold is a wonderful store of value, but it’s also a commodity, subject to the kind of wild price swings we often see in the commodities sector.
For example, back in 2000 (when the dot-com bubble ruled the market), gold didn’t seem all that appealing to investors. Why buy boring old gold when you could invest your money in Pets.com shares or Beanie Babies instead? Spot price for a troy ounce back then hit as low as $274, which seems truly unfathomable today.
By 2011, Mr. Market had completely changed his mind on gold. Prices rocketed to nearly $2,000 per ounce in the aftermath of a financial crash, protracted recession, and uncertain recovery.
Then the market turned bearish once again, and gold prices eased as investors set their sights on appealing new assets, such as DOGE coin and Bored Ape NFTs. That turned out as you might have expected, and now we’re back in a bull market for gold.
Through each of these cycles, we’re seeing investors and institutions constantly switch between fear and greed. Between maximizing the return on their investment with stocks and other speculative assets … or just trying to ensure the return of their investment by plowing cash into reliable stores of value, like gold.
But this year’s bull market goes far beyond a short-term reassessment of risk and reward. Gold’s glimmer reflects a tough new reality for Trump World.
Gold prices are up more than 62% since the beginning of 2025 — and much of that move can be attributed to President Trump’s radically transformative new policies.
For example, his sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs went far beyond what anyone in the international community was expecting.
Targeting both America’s friends and enemies with sweeping new tariffs, Trump was deliberately upending the global order and forcing entire countries into the same kind of risk vs. reward reassessment that drives the gold market’s massive swings. Consequently, many of these countries’ central banks decided it was time to buy more gold.
China has been one of the biggest targets for Trump’s ire, and its central bank has been one of the biggest buyers of gold bullion in recent months, adding 36 metric tons to its reserves in the nine months leading up to July.
But the biggest buyer is a country that might surprise you. Poland has reportedly added 67 metric tons of gold to its reserves, amid escalating tension and an ongoing war for neighboring Russia.
According to the latest annual central bank survey from the World Gold Council, a staggering 95% of those central bankers surveyed said they’re growing their gold reserves … and 73% said they’re paring back on dollar reserves at the same time.
Regardless of anyone’s personal opinion on Trump, it’s clear that the international community is translating his “Putting America First” agenda as something more like “Every Man for Himself.” That could have a profound impact down the line, not just for our future trade prospects, but for the health of the economy and the U.S. dollar at large (which is still the world’s dominant reserve currency, for now).
At the same time, this is all very bullish for gold, as central banks are likely to continue buying for years to come. In this kind of situation, gold hitting $4,300 and continuing to rise higher was a foregone conclusion, and it’s clear that Trump’s agenda is locked in and unlikely to change.
To good profits,
Adam O’Dell
Money & Markets and Grey Swan
P.S. from Addison: Any pullback in gold and silver in the coming weeks would be a chance to buy more. The upward price trend is not likely to change until the US Congress figures out how to address unrestrained fiscal deficits.
Given the fact Congress can’t even agree long enough to keep the government open, we don’t think reining in non-discretionary spending is on the agenda anytime soon.
Confidence in the dollar is shaky, at best. At this moment, the only solution for the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury have at their disposal is a massive upgrade to the US dollar itself. Trump’s policy agenda now supports developing the regulatory environment to roll out what we’re calling Dollar 2.0.
Ian King and I joined forces this week to discuss how and at what pace Dollar 2.0 unfolding…
This week, we dedicated a special Grey Swan Live! to what we call: Dollar 2.0: The Final Chapter.
Tuesday, October 21, 2025, could go down as one of the most important dates in American financial history. On that date, a rare, federally mandated event could trigger the most powerful wealth shift in more than 80 years.
If those events unfold as Ian and I expect, they will trigger a $20 trillion transfer of assets — and rewrite the rules of money for every individual investor. For select investments, we expect 12X gains before 2030. Potentially more.
It’s exciting. This is a critical, make-or-break moment in monetary history, and it presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
Like many of the Trump administration’s policy initiatives, we’re expecting these changes to rewrite the rules of banking, global investing and the fate of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
We broke it all down in a special Grey Swan Live! which dropped at 1pm yesterday. To view this important release, please click here. Click now, the presentation will be taken down on Tuesday.
If you’d like, you can drop your most pressing questions right here: Feedback@GreySwanFraternity.
