Over the weekend, through backchannels in Islamabad, Iran signaled it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifted its naval blockade of Iranian ports.
The counterproposal omitted Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile. President Donald Trump scoffed. No deal. Washington “holds all the cards,” the President asserts.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi flew to St. Petersburg to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, another attempt to draw Russia into the conflict.
The U.S. Navy “tripled” the number of mine-clearing operations that the Pentagon says will take months. Traffic through the Strait dropped to seven vessels per day, down from roughly 140 before the war.
Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are still down 95% from their pre-war levels. (Source: Global Investment Research)
As the “chokehold” on oil, Brent rose to $108 a barrel. But this isn’t just an oil story. Other commodities, notably fertilizer, have also soared. Fertilizer has spiked from $450 per ton to over $700. Anhydrous ammonia, specifically, hit $1,100.
Fertilizer production is energy-intensive, so even for production outside Hormuz, today’s disruption still has a significant impact.
A Grey Swan Forecast: Beware a summer 2026 “yield cliff.”
Because the conflict hit during the spring planting season, many farmers have been unable to access or afford nitrogen-heavy fertilizers.
Expected significantly lower yields of staples such as corn, wheat and rice during the late 2026 harvest.
Place your bet before disrupted fertilizer supply chains cause a global food crisis, see: Grey Swan Pro.
~ Addison
P.S. If you missed Grey Swan Live! last week with Zoltan Istvan, we got a whirlwind view of the future, Zoltan-style, which we dubbed “Robots, UBI, and Wine”…
In one stirring anecdote, Mr. Istvan described a recent letter he wrote to his wife. After three decades of buying, trading and developing real estate using the credit markets, they are planning for a “black swan” deflationary environment by deleveraging their real estate, something he’s never done with his own money…
I tried to persuade him to use the term “grey swan” instead, since it’s a trend he can see comin’. We’ll see if he comes around.
One curious story, while he’s planting more vines in his vineyard in Napa, he knows several other grape growers who are ripping their vines out of the ground, because it’s cheaper to let the land lie fallow than pay to deal with California’s onerous regulatory environment. Another sign of things to come?
Perhaps. Check out Zoltan’s interesting and very unique perspective on AI, the acceleration of change, and the future of value in the markets… stocks, bonds, real estate and tech. All very thought-provoking and worth a listen.
