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Beneath the Surface

From Tianjin to Tippecanoe

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

May 21, 2025 • 4 minute, 26 second read


freedom

From Tianjin to Tippecanoe

“No experiment can be more interesting than that we are now trying, and which we trust will end in establishing the fact that man may be governed by reason and truth.”

–Thomas Jefferson

 

May 21, 2025 — “There may be 10,000 handshakes,” Mung Chiang said boldly with a slight tinge of his native Mandarin, “but each graduate gets only one. And each one is a little different: some firm, some light touch, some cold and some sweaty. For no two students are the same.”

Honestly, no one in the audience expected to be moved.

Most showed up thinking we’d hear another round of harmless commencement platitudes — some forgettable mix of “go forth,” “change the world,” and “don’t forget to call your mother.”

After all, that’s what these things usually are, right?

This past weekend, however, something rare happened at Purdue University in West Lafayette, Indiana.

Essential in its own small way.

President Mung Chiang — an engineer by training, not a speechwriter — stood metaphorically before the largest graduating class in the university’s history, more than 10,000 strong, and delivered a message that felt like it could only happen here, in this time and place, and only because the idea of America — flawed, noisy, unpredictable — is still alive.

What Chiang didn’t talk about was almost as important as what he did. And not because he promised to keep his speech the shortest in the university’s history.

No.

Chiang didn’t talk about “changing the world” or “the power of your dreams.” He didn’t exhort the students to protest the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. He didn’t tell graduates to resist, reform or relate. He didn’t mention Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. Not once.

He talked about freedom.

The freedom to think, to tinker, to speak your mind — even when it’s unpopular. He talked about responsibility-not as a slogan, but as something real, something earned.

He joked about the sweaty handshakes at the diploma line and then got serious: Purdue reads every graduate’s name, one by one.

Not to be quaint.

But because the individual matters.

The idea sounds obvious… or maybe old-fashioned.

But to hear it — stated clearly, with no buzzwords or hedges — was unexpectedly powerful.

Now consider this: Chiang was born in Tianjin, China. Immigrated here in the mid-90s. Became a U.S. citizen. Earned his Ph.D. from Stanford before most of us were out of grad school. Taught at Princeton. Advised the U.S. State Department.

He’s the president of a land-grant university at the top of its game — without raising tuition once over the past 14 years.

On the eve of the 250th anniversary of the American experiment, he gave a simple speech only to remind us — not with fireworks or chest-thumping, but with clarity — why this time and place, despite everything, still matters.

We live in a time where most institutions are chasing approval, crumbling in credibility, raising tuition, skimming off the system and scrambling to matter in an intentionally fractious political drama.

And yet, what’s this?

A refreshingly radical idea.

Chiang suggested to 10 different audiences over the course of 20 hours of solemn ceremony that Purdue isn’t a megaphone for one voice in unison or one complaint after another.

It’s a university. A gymnasium of thought. A place where you sweat. Not everyone gets a trophy. Not everyone agrees. But everyone thinks — or is expected to – for themselves.

Chiang wasn’t selling a model.

He chose this one for himself.

And standing there, under the Elliott Music Hall lights, it felt like something real — something we don’t see much anymore.

Not nostalgia.

Not ideology.

Just a calm, earned confidence in the idea that freedom works.

You can build a life, a career, or even a university that competes with the best of the best by trusting people to carry their own weight.

If anything, we had to smile.

Our son, who will graduate with a degree in animal science and then study how AI tools will dissect DNA to build new medical solutions (and other advanced technical functions) in graduate school, will also carry Chiang’s message.

And pass it on.

~ Addison Wiggin

Grey Swan

P.S. “I don’t usually do this,” writes Eric D., “but I find your insight and newsletters to be a notch above all the rest. That’s saying a lot when I skip right past literally 100s of emails a day.”

Mr. D continues:

It’s truthful without bias. It’s the cold, hard facts. None of this. “Well, I wear one badge, so I have to say this.”

That kind of information being broadcast from both sides in all directions really does nobody any good.

So, really, the only reason I wrote this email was to say thank you and express my appreciation for the way you conduct business and relay the message to others.

“Have a blessed day.”

Join us for Grey Swan Live! tomorrow, Thursday, May 22, at 11 a.m. EST.

Andrew Packer and I will examine the headlines and investment data to determine the impact tariffs, taxes, and political tumult are having on the Grey Swan model portfolio.

If you’re a paying member, you’ll receive your invitation email right before we go live. See you then.

Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com


The Debasement “Trade”

November 18, 2025 • Mark Jeftovic

Bitcoin isn’t a trade and trying to time it with chart patterns generally does not work.

I’ve never really felt like technical analysis carried much real predictive edge in general and when it comes to BTC, I’ve seen too many failed “death crosses” to change my opinion.

The one that just triggered in mid-November as bitcoin flirted with $90,000 is just the latest.

What really matters? It’s a monetary regime change – if market participants are trading anything it’s getting rid of a currency (“it’s the denominator, stupid”) for a store of value – and we’re seeing it in spades with Bitcoin and gold.

The Debasement “Trade”
The Cult of Stock Market Riches

November 18, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

White-collar hiring is, in fact, slowing. Engel’s Pause is taking hold of the jobs picture.

In the meantime, everyday Americans are rediscovering an ancient truth: there is wisdom in wearing steel-toed boots.

Jobs that struggle to attract bodies in boom times are now seeing stampedes of applicants.

– Georgia’s Department of Corrections: applications up 40%.

– The U.S. military: reached 2025 recruiting goals early.

– Waste management staffing: applications up 50%.

For now, economists call this “labor market tightness.” Anyone who has ever scrubbed a grease trap knows it by another name: fear.

The Cult of Stock Market Riches
Whales Buy the Bitcoin Dip

November 18, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Bitcoin has historically weathered 30%+ corrections while still in a bull market. 

Global liquidity fears and lower odds of a Fed rate cut in December are driving bitcoin and other cryptos lower at present. 

As Andrew Zatlin described on Thursday’s Live! we can expect a series of stimulus efforts next year, ahead of the midterms, driving new liquidity. The $2,000 “tariff rebate” checks President Trump has been touting are but one example.

When higher liquidity hits the market – in whatever form it takes – today’s bitcoin buyers will be waiting.

Make like the whales, and use market selloffs and stimulus to your advantage.

Whales Buy the Bitcoin Dip
Private Credit’s Creditanstalt Moment

November 17, 2025 • Andrew Packer

The market seems to know something about private credit that we don’t. And in a big enough liquidity event for private credit, investors will have to sell off more liquid assets if they want capital.

That’s the danger private credit poses today, exactly at a time when rules are being eased to make it easier for retail investors like us to buy into this asset class.

I’m in the camp that this smells like a way to keep the party going by providing another source of liquidity – the passive investment flows from your regular 401(k) contributions. The smell takes on a sour note as this sector starts to falter.

Perhaps today’s selloff is simply a reaction to declining interest rates, the growth of private credit, and a few inevitable deals that have gone sour recently.

Private Credit’s Creditanstalt Moment