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Beneath the Surface

From Permission to Possession

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

December 12, 2025 • 3 minute, 55 second read


CryptoStablecoins

From Permission to Possession

“If someone gives you permission, they can take it away. I give myself permission.”

– Lucille Clifton

 

December 11, 2025 —For the first time in history, Americans will be able to transact freely without fearing political disfavor or the legacy financial system. The architecture itself enforces neutrality. There is no “cancel” button.

The end of fiat regimes controlled by politicians and central bankers is a reasonably imaginable prospect.

This is precisely what Kirk meant by the preservation of order. The founders balanced power between branches; today’s coders balance power between servers.

In both cases, the goal is the same: to prevent centralized concentration and preserve liberty. Peer-to-peer transactions will introduce a whole new level of competition into the banking system.

Instead of putting money in a savings account with a bank, earning partly (if any) interest, you can lend directly. And then you can get a market rate for your capital, not a rate imposed by today’s big banks, which are effectively gatekeepers for the legacy financial system.

Dollar 2.0: Our Grey Swan Working Thesis

On October 21, the Fed hosted its Payments Innovation Conference and formally opened the policy spigot on stablecoins, cryptocurrency, and tokenization. We’ll continue to track and flag investable edges as the guardrails are implemented.

We’ll be watching opportunities in three categories:

  • The issuers — companies that create digital dollars backed by real cash or short-term U.S. Treasuries, and prove it every month. Think of them as safer, faster payment systems that don’t depend on weekend bankers.

    • The builders — firms designing the plumbing and legal framework that make those payments work. They’re the picks and shovels of the new financial gold rush.

    • The adapters — traditional banks that plug into the new system instead of fighting it, using faster settlement to cut costs and (in theory) pass the savings on to customers.

In short: the new money rails are coming, the infrastructure is investable, and the smart banks will ride them instead of watching from the station. 

🌍 And… The Global Shift

Across the world, nation-states are taking notes. China’s digital yuan is built for surveillance; Europe’s digital euro is built for compliance. The American model is being built for freedom — a multi-issuer, transparent, competitive system anchored in law. Chaotic in its disruption.

At the Fed’s Payments Innovation Conference, Governor Christopher Waller floated “skinny accounts” to allow approved stablecoin issuers direct settlement access—a constitutional bridge between central banking and market innovation.

Hamilton meets Satoshi.

Love it.

And it’s a reason for optimism. Refreshing for me in a career critiquing the failures of fiat currencies and insurmountable debt that it encourages at all levels of society – government, corporate and individual.

🧭 Back to First Principles

Kirk wrote that liberty “endures only when linked to order, and order only when linked to justice.” That’s what’s being rebuilt here: not a new ideology, but a new infrastructure for old freedoms.

Trump’s conversion to digital money wasn’t the result of his kids following a tech fad — it was a rite of passage the nation had to witness. That is, if they bothered to pay attention to what was happening to the man behind the ghoul’s mask painted over his public face.

Trump was the test case. The debanked president who learned, painfully, that political power doesn’t guarantee financial access — and that the only real safeguard against tyranny is a system that cannot discriminate.

The lesson? Freedom cannot depend on parties or courts… but it can be preserved on digital monetary architecture.

🌄 The Optimistic View

America has consistently reinvented itself in times of crisis. The founders survived monarchy. Lincoln survived disunion. We’ve survived bank panics, oil shocks, stagflation, and disco. We’ll survive deplatforming, too.

The Second American Revolution won’t be fought with muskets or manifestos. It won’t be fought with petty violence and street demonstrations. It will be written into code. And available to those who wish to take advantage of it.

Russell Kirk called the first American Revolution “a revolution not made, but prevented.” The second will be the same. We’re not tearing down the house — we’re going to rewire it in code.

The result may not be utopia. But it will be freedom you can bank on.

Addison Wiggin

 

Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

 

P.S. This piece first appeared in our November Grey Swan Bulletin. Today, we’re continuing our review our 2025 Grey Swan forecasts and planning out our best new ideas for 2026 this week… and putting together our final Bulletin of 2025.

Next week, we’ll be back at it with a sneak preview of what we expect in 2026 and solid moves you can make before year-end.


Grey Swan #2: The Crack-Up Boom Reaches Terminal Velocity

January 1, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The crack-up boom does not signal immediate collapse. Monetary policy gets a new master… inflation rages… and investors chase stocks as a means of keeping pace with their savings.

Markets may even finish 2026 higher than they begin. Many investors will still lose purchasing power along the way. Terminal velocity will feel like momentum… until reality hits.

In 2026, expect breathtaking advances, with the AI narrative remaining dominant, and sudden reversals to occur quickly. Expect liquidity to remain plentiful and erode discipline even more.

Grey Swan #2: The Crack-Up Boom Reaches Terminal Velocity
Grey Swan #3: The Midterms Deliver a Socialist Majority in the House

December 31, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

If the socialist agenda lands, the reaction matters as much as the results of the initial vote.

A hostile House gridlocks legislation. Investigations proliferate. Impeachment chatter returns. Executive authority stretches to compensate.

The political goal of the reactionary strategist will be to muck up the Trump realignment as much as possible to regain power in the House, the Senate (eventually), fortify the courts and ultimately take back the Oval Office. 

Trump will not face a midterm defeat like past lame-duck presidents. We’ll see a host of creative efforts to assert executive authority and override the people’s House. The checks and balances bestowed by Montesquieu at the very root of the Republic will be tested as never before.

Grey Swan #3: The Midterms Deliver a Socialist Majority in the House
Grey Swan #4: America’s Covert Resource War in South America

December 30, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

If the U.S. can no longer afford to police the world, it will prioritize what sits closest to home. Oil, lithium, copper, rare earths, food, and shipping lanes in the Western Hemisphere matter more to America’s economic resilience than abstract security guarantees signed eight decades ago.

The Financial Times captured this shift late in 2025, noting that U.S. foreign policy is “increasingly transactional, geographically compressed, and resource-oriented.” Bloomberg went further, describing a “hemispheric retrenchment” underway beneath the noise of global diplomacy.

We have observed passively that empires of the past, burdened by debt, stop expanding ideologically and start contracting strategically. If nothing else, this is a guide that helps decipher Trump’s comedic efforts at the podium on the second-term victory tour he’s on.

Grey Swan #4: America’s Covert Resource War in South America
Grey Swan #5: The European Union Fractures Under the Weight of War, Debt, and Bureaucracy

December 29, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

By 2026, all four supports will demonstrate that they’ve weakened simultaneously. As true as it may or may not be, it’s not likely to be understood, let alone covered by old-school national media.

Debt narrows choices. War hardens politics. False bureaucratic authority substitutes for something, trust, maybe. Nationalists will be more than willing to fill the vacuum.

Europe’s fracture will feel gradual. Policy coherence will erode further. Markets will adapt and look to the Middle and/or Far East to finance the Ponzi finance on display in New York and London.

Grey Swan #5: The European Union Fractures Under the Weight of War, Debt, and Bureaucracy