“Guns will make us powerful, butter will only make us fat.”
-Hermann Goring
September 8, 2025 — “You’re going to see employment leaping.”
That’s what Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, said in April, attributing the good news to the trade war.
But instead of leaping, employment is falling down dead. Last month’s new job count, at 22,000, was statistically insignificant. Most of the numbers that are reported are later revised lower. This one is likely to go to zero.
The whole purpose – at least, as stated publicly – of the trade war was to bring good-paying manufacturing jobs back to the US. But with last week’s report, the number of ‘goods producing’ jobs has fallen by nearly 50,000 since January. Since 2007, more than 400,000 manufacturing jobs have been lost.
Poor Donald Trump. He is one year older than we are. But while we simply observe, safely and comfortably, from our home office, he is out and about…with the cares of the whole world resting precariously on his shoulders. His hands turn purple. His ankles swell. And nothing seems to be working out as advertised. Formerly friendly nations are ‘conspiring’ against him. His gunship diplomacy seems likely to trigger more conflict. The trade war is backfiring. The whole program — an awkward mixture of guns and butter — is proving to be either ineffective or illegal…or both. And hopes for the Nobel Peace Prize seem to be fading.
Still, here at BPR, we always look on the bright side. And there, warmed by the sun, everything is still going according to plan. Not Donald Trump’s plan. Not Hillary Clinton or Gavin Newsome’s plan. And certainly not our plan.
It is going according to History’s great plan. He that doth ride so high must be brought down low. And the USA in 1999 was a source of inspiration and awe all over the planet. She was on top of the world, admired and imitated…with the strongest economy on earth. From an historical perspective, she needed leaders who could help her down the mountain.
So along came George W. Bush, with his ‘war on terror.’ Then came Barack Obama, who added $8 trillion to the national debt. Joe Biden helped too — with his Inflation Reduction Act…which helped boost the rate of inflation to a 40-year high…and increased the debt to over $35 trillion. Biden should also be credited with promoting ‘woke’ and DEI fantasies and thus clearing the path for the man who was suited to do History’s heavy lifting: Donald J. Trump. To fulfill his historic mission, he had to step on the gas, speeding up the pace of wrecking the nation’s finances…and wasting its military.
When Trump leaves office in 2029 US debt should be nearing $45 trillion (if nothing goes wrong!) As for his work on the Pentagon, a little context is called for. German Chancellor Merz:
“The welfare state that we have created can no longer be financed with what we produce in the economy.”
He is right. The ponzi math of the welfare state system no longer works. Too many old people. Not enough young people to pay for them. What to do? How to keep ‘The People’ in line and on your side when you can no longer fulfill your promises? Switch from butter to guns! TIME:
Merz…pledged that Germany’s military would be the “strongest conventional army in Europe,” …. Merz will push to increase troop levels from the current 182,000 active-duty soldiers to as many as 240,000 by 2031 (most likely by reintroducing the draft). Germany will also replace aging aircraft, tanks, and ships. The rest will go toward defense-related infrastructure.
Germany’s last re-armament began ninety years ago. Maybe it will work out better this time, who knows?
America faces much the same math. Last year, US births outnumbered deaths by about 500,000. But more than half US counties have more elderly people than children. And many of the births happen among immigrants. Money Talks:
Hispanic and Asian Growth Offsets America’s Declining Birth Rates
If the goal were to accelerate the insolvency of the Social Security system, what would the feds have to do? Get rid of the immigrants, of course.
An estimated 1.6 million ‘illegals’ left the US in the first six months of this year. This puts the net population change at MINUS a million people so far in 2025. We haven’t seen any reports on the subject, but it must mean that Social Security will go broke sooner than expected.
So, where does that leave the welfare state? Does it turn into a warfare state?
Is that the ‘historical’ reason the Trump Team proposes to change the ‘defense department’ into the ‘war department?’ Is that the real motivation behind naming drug dealers as ‘terrorists’…to distract the Pentagon with a no-account, ersatz enemy? And was that the real reason the US military gunned down people on a boat in the Caribbean last week?
More to come…
Regards,
Bill Bonner
Bonner Private Research & Grey Swan Investment Fraternity
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