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Beneath the Surface

Free Markets, Free Minds, Free People

Loading ...Joel Bowman

May 9, 2025 • 5 minute, 26 second read


Argentinafree marketsMieli

Free Markets, Free Minds, Free People

“The State is a gang of thieves writ large – the most immoral, grasping and unscrupulous individuals in any society.”

–Murray Rothbard

May 9, 2025 — May 9, 2025 – Free markets… free minds… free people.

That’s our beat here in these pages. Today, a brief update concerning our adopted home of Argentina, where a long-awaited experiment in anarcho-capitalism is playing out in real time.

Long time readers will recall that the southernmost nation in the Americas elected a president who, alone among his peers, believes in the radical notion that “we, the people,” are not the property of the State.

“The State is not the solution to our problems,” says Javier Milei, often to rooms full of knaves, thieves and career politicians (but we repeat ourselves). “The State is the problem.”

And so, in late December of 2023, Sr. Milei set about dismantling his nation’s malignant government from the inside. Tens of thousands of public non-workers were fired… whole ministries axed… entire sectors of the ossified economy privatized, liberalized… liberated.

So, how’s the grand old laissez-faire experiment going thus far?

Anarchy Unleashed

To the undisguised chagrin of the hyperventilating blowhards peopling the mainstream media, who prophesied a collapsing economy, widespread misery and a Mad Max-style, statewide collapse, the long-suffering citizens of Argentina were spared their ghoulish fantasies.

Take the national carrier, Aerolíneas Argentinas, as a simple case study. In a major legislative victory late last year, the Milei administration was able to pave the road (or is it, clear the skies?) for privatizing the nose-diving, cash-hemorrhaging airline.

Naturally, the popular presses sided with the powerful and notoriously corrupt unions, who weren’t exactly keen on seeing their gravy plane grounded.

From USAID-funded bullhorn, Reuters:

Argentina’s state airline cuts staff, routes, passenger perks ahead of possible sale

BUENOS AIRES – Argentina’s state airline, Aerolineas Argentinas, is slimming down for a potential sale, shedding 13% of its staff, cutting money-losing domestic routes and even removing snacks formerly available to passengers, according to sources and documents seen by Reuters.

The cutbacks, many of whose details were previously unreported, are part of a backdoor attempt to trim the airline’s burden on the state and lure private investment. The drive is progressing, even though libertarian President Javier Milei’s plans to privatize the firm have generated pushback.

The carrier, with Argentina’s blue and white colors, is a major test case of Milei’s pro-market reforms, which are yanking South America’s second-largest economy in a sharply different direction after years of big government. They have improved the state’s finances, but stunted economic growth and pushed up poverty.

Now, hold up just a second…

We’ll return to Aerolíneas Argentinas in a jiffy… but first, did you catch those last two claims – that Milei’s pro-market reforms have “stunted economic growth” and “pushed up poverty” – flippantly tossed in there at the end, just for bad measure?

They are what’s known as “verifyable.” So, let’s do just that, shall we?

First, Argentina’s “stunted growth.”

Lies of Commission

Rather than collapse into a greater depression, as the presstards claim, the Argentine economy is actually, measurably, verifiably, roaring back to life.

Even the The BA Times was obliged to cite the latest data from INDEC:

Argentina’s economy grew more than expected in February

Economic activity rose 5.7% in February year-on-year, reveals data from the INDEC national statistics bureau.

Argentina’s economy grew more than expected in February, solidifying the country’s bounceback under President Javier Milei a week after he clinched a US$20-billion deal with the International Monetary Fund.

Economic activity rose 5.7 percent from the same month a year ago, compared with the median estimate of 5.5 percent, according to government data published Tuesday. On the month, activity rose 0.8 percent after a 0.6 percent rise in January.

And this, all while keeping a lid on public enemy #1: Inflation. Although the monthly rate ticked up slightly in March, the yearly rate is down roughly ~80% from what it was a year ago, from almost 290% to 55%.

Here’s the official stats, again from INDEC…

Turn Your Images On

As for the dangling “pushed up poverty” claim, official data show those figures collapsing, too… right alongside inflation, as any economist worth his pesos might expect.

Even the Associated Press printed the story, albeit through gritted teeth and weak, anecdotal asides:

Argentina reports a drop in poverty under President Milei, but many say life is harder

Argentina’s poverty rate dropped to 38.1% in libertarian President Javier Milei ‘s first year in office, the nation’s official statistics agency reported on Monday, a closely watched measure reflecting the government’s progress wrestling down what had been among the world’s highest inflation rates.

The decline in poverty for the second half of 2024 — from July to December — marks an improvement from the 41.7% that Milei’s left-wing populist predecessors delivered for the second half of 2023. Milei swept to office late that year with a mandate to reverse the country’s economic decline brought about by years of reckless borrowing.

Ivy League Idiocy

So… massive growth and sharply falling rates of poverty (tracking plummeting inflation). It takes an Ivy League degree in journalism, and a paycheck from a top tier newspaper, to translate this to “stunted economic growth” and “pushed up poverty.”

As for Aerolíneas Argentinas, industry publication, Aviacion Al Dia had the hard figures when the 2024 earnings report came around:

Aerolíneas Argentinas Records First Annual Profit Since 2008

For the first time since its nationalization in 2008, Aerolíneas Argentinas reported a positive annual financial result. According to data from the National Budget Office, the company closed the year 2024 with a favorable balance of $156,323.9 million.

In operational terms, the company achieved a profit of US$20.7 million, measured by EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes).

Free markets… free minds… free people. Don’t trust those who tell you there’s nothing to them.

And stay tuned for more Notes From the End of the World…

Cheers,

Joel Bowman
Notes From the End of the World

P.S. from Andrew:  As President Trump and House Republicans work to craft a “big, beautiful” budget bill, they’d be wise to follow in Argentina’s footsteps and look to cut as aggressively as possible. They have a narrow window to act.

Currently, talks of raising rates on ultra-high earners, increasing the State and Local Tax (SALT) exemption from $10,000 to $30,000, and other discussed measures do little to address the real problem: Spending.

If this trend continues, Argentina’s success story may not play out north of the border.

Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com


Pablo Hill: An Unmistakable Pattern in Copper

December 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As copper flowed into the United States, LME inventories thinned and backwardation steepened. Higher U.S. pricing, tariff protection, and lower political risk made American warehouses the most attractive destination for metal. Each new shipment strengthened the spread.

The arbitrage, once triggered, became self-reinforcing. Traders were not participating in theory; they were responding to the physical incentives in front of them.

The United States had quietly become the marginal buyer of the world’s most important industrial metal. China, long the gravitational center of global copper demand, found itself on the outside.

Pablo Hill: An Unmistakable Pattern in Copper
Bears on the Prowl

December 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Under the frost-crusted shrubs, the bears are sniffing around for scraps of bloody meat.

They smell the subtle rot of credit stress, central-bank desperation, and debt that’s beginning to steam in the cold. They’re not charging — not yet. But they’re present. Watching. Testing the doors.

Retail investors, last in line, await the Fed’s final announcement of the year on Wednesday. Then the central planners of the world get their turn: the Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank.

Treasuries just suffered their worst week since June. And in Japan — the quiet godfather of global liquidity — something fundamental is breaking.

Silver continues its blistering ascent. Gold and bitcoin have settled in at $4,200 and $92,000, respectively.

Bears on the Prowl
How To Guarantee Higher Prices

December 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

It’s absurd, really, for any politician to be talking about “affordability.”

The data is clear. If higher prices are your goal, let the government “fix” them.

Mandates, paperwork, and busybodies telling you what you can and can’t do – it’s not a surprise why costs add up.

In contrast, if you want lower prices, do nothing– zilch. Let the market work.

How To Guarantee Higher Prices
Gideon Ashwood: The Bondquake in Tokyo: Why Japan’s Shock Is Just the Beginning

December 5, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

For 30 years, Japan was the land where interest rates went to die.

The Bank of Japan used yield-curve control to keep long-term rates sedated. Traders joked that shorting Japanese bonds was the “widow-maker trade.”

Not anymore.

On November 20, 2025, everything changed. Quietly, but decisively.

The Bank of Japan finally pulled the plug on decades of easy money. Negative rates were removed. Yield-curve control was abandoned. The policy rate was lifted to a 17-year high.

Suddenly, global markets had to reprice something they had ignored for years.

What happens when the world’s largest creditor nation stops exporting cheap capital and starts pulling it back home?

The answer came fast. Bond yields in Europe and the United States began climbing. The Japanese yen strengthened sharply. Wall Street faltered.

Gideon Ashwood: The Bondquake in Tokyo: Why Japan’s Shock Is Just the Beginning