Feature: “Terrifying Bull Bull”

How is there such a relentless bid for big-cap tech names?

Part of it is structural. Companies like Nvidia and Microsoft can make up a combined 15% of the S&P 500 thanks to their sheer size.

And week after week, 401k and other passive investment plans put more money into market indices, benefitting these already large plays.

But we’re seeing another trend at play too. Today’s investors are increasing their stakes in big companies by moving out of small companies:

Turn Your Images On

Investors aren’t just going all in on big-tech stocks, they’re selling off better-valued small caps to do so. (Source: BofA)

It’s a feature of the most terrifying bull market of our lifetimes.

Year-to-date, over $80 billion has flowed out of small-cap U.S. stock funds. These are the companies that can include the proverbial next Nvidia or next Microsoft.

Many of these companies trade at far more reasonable valuations than Microsoft and Nvidia today. And their growth rates can be just as impressive. It’s easier for a small-cap company to double earnings than a company that’s already earning tens of billions per year.

It’s likely that investors won’t rediscover these stocks until the big-cap names falter. But for all our criticism of investor enthusiasm and high-flying valuations in the overall market today, small cap stocks are starting to look like a relative value, especially for more patient investors.

The ol’ timers will tell you “small caps lead the way out” of a bust. For now, big tech continues to suck up global capital.

~ Addison

P.S.: With the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates at its September meeting, the stock market as a whole may get a shot in the arm – small caps and large caps alike.

Our research has found several pockets of opportunity in small-cap stocks this year, particularly in areas that can benefit from President Trump’s Great Reset of the U.S. economy.

Key areas that have already been attractive include the cryptocurrency space, resource stocks, and plays on next-generation nuclear technologies.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

How is there such a relentless bid for big-cap tech names?

Part of it is structural. Companies like Nvidia and Microsoft can make up a combined 15% of the S&P 500 thanks to their sheer size.

And week after week, 401k and other passive investment plans put more money into market indices, benefitting these already large plays.

But we’re seeing another trend at play too. Today’s investors are increasing their stakes in big companies by moving out of small companies:

Turn Your Images On

Investors aren’t just going all in on big-tech stocks, they’re selling off better-valued small caps to do so. (Source: BofA)

It’s a feature of the most terrifying bull market of our lifetimes.

Year-to-date, over $80 billion has flowed out of small-cap U.S. stock funds. These are the companies that can include the proverbial next Nvidia or next Microsoft.

The ol’ timers will tell you “small caps lead the way out” of a bust. For now, big tech continues to suck up global capital.

~ Addison

P.S.: With the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates at its September meeting, the stock market as a whole may get a shot in the arm – small caps and large caps alike.

Our research has found several pockets of opportunity in small-cap stocks this year, particularly in areas that can benefit from President Trump’s Great Reset of the U.S. economy.

Key areas that have already been attractive include the cryptocurrency space, resource stocks, and plays on next-generation nuclear technologies.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Bitcoin isn’t a trade and trying to time it with chart patterns generally does not work.

I’ve never really felt like technical analysis carried much real predictive edge in general and when it comes to BTC, I’ve seen too many failed “death crosses” to change my opinion.

The one that just triggered in mid-November as bitcoin flirted with $90,000 is just the latest.

What really matters? It’s a monetary regime change – if market participants are trading anything it’s getting rid of a currency (“it’s the denominator, stupid”) for a store of value – and we’re seeing it in spades with Bitcoin and gold.

White-collar hiring is, in fact, slowing. Engel’s Pause is taking hold of the jobs picture.

In the meantime, everyday Americans are rediscovering an ancient truth: there is wisdom in wearing steel-toed boots.

Jobs that struggle to attract bodies in boom times are now seeing stampedes of applicants.

– Georgia’s Department of Corrections: applications up 40%.

– The U.S. military: reached 2025 recruiting goals early.

– Waste management staffing: applications up 50%.

For now, economists call this “labor market tightness.” Anyone who has ever scrubbed a grease trap knows it by another name: fear.

Bitcoin has historically weathered 30%+ corrections while still in a bull market.

Global liquidity fears and lower odds of a Fed rate cut in December are driving bitcoin and other cryptos lower at present.

As Andrew Zatlin described on Thursday’s Live! we can expect a series of stimulus efforts next year, ahead of the midterms, driving new liquidity. The $2,000 “tariff rebate” checks President Trump has been touting are but one example.

When higher liquidity hits the market – in whatever form it takes – today’s bitcoin buyers will be waiting.

Make like the whales, and use market selloffs and stimulus to your advantage.

The market seems to know something about private credit that we don’t. And in a big enough liquidity event for private credit, investors will have to sell off more liquid assets if they want capital.

That’s the danger private credit poses today, exactly at a time when rules are being eased to make it easier for retail investors like us to buy into this asset class.

I’m in the camp that this smells like a way to keep the party going by providing another source of liquidity – the passive investment flows from your regular 401(k) contributions. The smell takes on a sour note as this sector starts to falter.

Perhaps today’s selloff is simply a reaction to declining interest rates, the growth of private credit, and a few inevitable deals that have gone sour recently.