In the ’90s, everyone talked about the internet. Streaming video? Video calls? Online banking? They all came to pass — but not before the original dotcom boom went bust and took half the market with it.
AI today is flirting with its own dotcom moment. The technology is advancing at The Quickening’s pace. But the market story — that every AI stock will make you rich — is still built on ghost wealth, the kind Bill Bonner warns about.
Just look at AI usage trends this summer:
AI usage has dropped off over the summer (source: OpenAI)
Usage has dropped off sharply. Why? Because right now, the killer app for AI is still helping college kids write term papers — and it’s summer vacation.
There are real breakthroughs in drug development, engineering, and data analysis (I’ve seen it firsthand with GPT-5), but those aren’t yet what’s driving the speculative frenzy in the stock market.
This is the first bout of handover turbulence for AI: rapid technological change colliding with early-stage adoption patterns and overheated valuations. Two things can be true — AI will change the world, and the AI stock boom can still crash.
~ Addison
P.S. From tech to hard assets — specifically gold.
For the first time in living memory, a Fed principal economist has openly explored the mechanics of gold revaluation.
To be clear, the U.S. government still officially values its 261.5 million troy ounces of gold at $42.22 per ounce, a relic from the early 1970s. But what if — as Ray Dalio, Elon Musk, and even the Chinese central bank seem to believe — the U.S. is preparing for a new monetary regime?
According to Musk’s new Grok model, revaluing the U.S. gold stash to today’s ~$3,380 spot price would generate an $873 billion paper windfall. That could be used to expand the Fed’s balance sheet, issue new certificates, or offset the nation’s eye-watering debt load.
Dalio added on X: “The U.S. dollar used to be backed by gold. It’s not far-fetched to think we may be headed there again… Once people lose trust in fiat, the pattern repeats: print, inflate, devalue, and return to gold.”
Meanwhile, China is preparing. Their gold deliveries against futures contracts have doubled in the past month. The signal is clear: when the faith in fiat falters, the old gods of money — gold, silver, hard assets — tend to return.
We know that relative to money supply creation, gold prices are still undervalued — as are many other metals and commodities in general. We continue to like gold as a long-term store of value, and this quarter’s earnings reports from gold miners are showing signs of life across the resource sector.
For our own research on gold revaluation, see: Elon Musk’s Coming Gold Shock Could Instantly Start a 700% Rise in the Price of Gold Over the Next 2 Years!
While this market rally continues, by all means, take some profits in high-flying trades. But it’s still safe to stay invested in parts of the market that are rising for fundamental reasons.
As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.
