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Ripple Effect

Even AI Takes The Summer Off

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

August 8, 2025 • 2 minute, 39 second read


AIAI usedotcom boom

Even AI Takes The Summer Off

In the ’90s, everyone talked about the internet. Streaming video? Video calls? Online banking? They all came to pass — but not before the original dotcom boom went bust and took half the market with it.

AI today is flirting with its own dotcom moment. The technology is advancing at The Quickening’s pace. But the market story — that every AI stock will make you rich — is still built on ghost wealth, the kind Bill Bonner warns about.

Just look at AI usage trends this summer:

Turn Your Images On

AI usage has dropped off over the summer (source: OpenAI)

Usage has dropped off sharply. Why? Because right now, the killer app for AI is still helping college kids write term papers — and it’s summer vacation.

There are real breakthroughs in drug development, engineering, and data analysis (I’ve seen it firsthand with GPT-5), but those aren’t yet what’s driving the speculative frenzy in the stock market.

This is the first bout of handover turbulence for AI: rapid technological change colliding with early-stage adoption patterns and overheated valuations. Two things can be true — AI will change the world, and the AI stock boom can still crash.

~ Addison

P.S. From tech to hard assets — specifically gold.

For the first time in living memory, a Fed principal economist has openly explored the mechanics of gold revaluation.

To be clear, the U.S. government still officially values its 261.5 million troy ounces of gold at $42.22 per ounce, a relic from the early 1970s. But what if — as Ray Dalio, Elon Musk, and even the Chinese central bank seem to believe — the U.S. is preparing for a new monetary regime?

According to Musk’s new Grok model, revaluing the U.S. gold stash to today’s ~$3,380 spot price would generate an $873 billion paper windfall. That could be used to expand the Fed’s balance sheet, issue new certificates, or offset the nation’s eye-watering debt load.

Dalio added on X: “The U.S. dollar used to be backed by gold. It’s not far-fetched to think we may be headed there again… Once people lose trust in fiat, the pattern repeats: print, inflate, devalue, and return to gold.”

Meanwhile, China is preparing. Their gold deliveries against futures contracts have doubled in the past month. The signal is clear: when the faith in fiat falters, the old gods of money — gold, silver, hard assets — tend to return.

We know that relative to money supply creation, gold prices are still undervalued — as are many other metals and commodities in general. We continue to like gold as a long-term store of value, and this quarter’s earnings reports from gold miners are showing signs of life across the resource sector.

For our own research on gold revaluation, see: Elon Musk’s Coming Gold Shock Could Instantly Start a 700% Rise in the Price of Gold Over the Next 2 Years!

While this market rally continues, by all means, take some profits in high-flying trades. But it’s still safe to stay invested in parts of the market that are rising for fundamental reasons.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


American Autonomy

October 28, 2025 • John Robb

America’s role in the world isn’t that of the world’s policeman (a temporary post-World War II role foisted upon the U.S. due to the Cold War) or as the destination of immigrants (for most of the 20th century, when we saw the most significant increases in individual incomes and quality of life, the U.S. didn’t accept many immigrants). Instead, the role the U.S. has played throughout its existence is as the world’s leader in the production, adoption, and socioeconomic integration of new technologies. We figured out how to do it successfully first, and the world followed.

American Autonomy
The Liquidity Illusion

October 28, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

AMD’s deal with OpenAI is another echo from 1999. OpenAI agreed to buy six gigawatts’ worth of AMD chips — products that don’t yet exist — in exchange for warrants on 160 million AMD shares, about 10% of the company. AMD stock jumped 24% overnight.

And then there’s Oracle’s $300 billion OpenAI contract — five times OpenAI’s annual revenue. Oracle’s stock soared 43% in a day, making Larry Ellison $100 billion richer.

The Liquidity Illusion
Gold’s Relative Strength

October 28, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Relative strength, or RSI, provides investors with a quick glance as to how much the market likes or hates a given asset. The correction is a welcome event for hard asset investors.

With the metal back under $4,000, our thesis remains untouched.

In fact, the pullback  – while sharp and severe – makes  gold a less expensive insurance policy against geopolitical shocks and other Grey Swan events.

Gold’s Relative Strength
Networked Nationalism Rises

October 27, 2025 • John Robb

On the current trajectory, online and offline tribal warfare, with events that range from assassinations to riots to sabotage, is inevitable. Worse still, with both sides waging moral warfare (good versus evil), there is no middle ground, rendering compromise impossible.

To avoid this, the government could step in to crack down on illegal immigrants, serial criminality, and activist blue cells to slow the ramp in extrajudicial violence from the red tribe. This would reduce the chance we see a rapid escalation in tit for tat violence. However, to do this, it would need to designate many activist groups as terrorist entities and pursue them with the degree of vigor we saw with Islamic radicals after 9/11.

Networked Nationalism Rises