The U.S. money supply just hit an all-time high of $26.7 trillion.
That’s a $4 trillion increase in just 2.5 years — an average of $120 billion every month. Fuel? Deposits and the manic inflow into money market funds.
Result? Dollar erosion at a record pace.
The real beast behind “inflation” and “affordability” is a flood of U.S. dollars, globally, each a little less potent than the last. (Source: Global Markets Investor)
In any other era, we would call that “inflation.” But in 2025, we call it “resiliency.” Or “liquidity-driven price action.” Or “flexible disinflation.”
Or some other buzzword to avoid the “affordability hoax.”
Economists at Goldman Sachs said this morning they expect core inflation to finish the year around 2% even while GDP rises at a “surprisingly strong” 2.5% clip.
In our view, their inflation forecast is optimistic. Their GDP call? Modest.
The last time we pumped this much liquidity into the system — 2020 through 2022—the result was a manic asset bubble, runaway inflation, and an epic hangover at the Fed.
Goldman’s optimism has triggered a fresh round of bullish bets: cyclical stocks are rallying, “dispersion” in the S&P 500 is spiking, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice before Jerome Powell gets kicked out of Washington at the end of his term on May 15.
“Dispersion Rising” As The Bull Market Gets Pickier
In the early innings of 2026, big tech has underperformed. Small caps and cyclical names have taken the lead. Breadth is improving, but so is volatility.
“It’s a bull market,” Tony Pasquariello of Goldman Sachs put it, “but the setup is demanding and not uncomplicated.”
Translation: stock picking matters again. Mega-cap safety trades are out. Banks, industrials, materials, and energy are back in.
This is the kind of “regime shift” that makes and breaks portfolios. Investors who spent the last five years rotating between the Magnificent Seven may find themselves unprepared for an era where the rest of the market finally gets its due.
The Dollar 2.0 Wildcard
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong went on a PR sprint this morning, announcing that the company has withdrawn its support for the CLARITY Act, a key Senate crypto bill.
The chief of our leading pick in the Decentralized Finance (DeFi) space warned that passing the bill in its current incarnation could have “dangerous” consequences for the 52 million users of digital assets in the United States.
“Fight the good fight, brother!” Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong on CNBC this morning. (source: CNBC screengrab)
“It just felt deeply unfair to me that one industry [banks] would come in and get to do regulatory capture to ban their competition,” Armstrong told Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business this morning, “They should have to compete on a level playing field, and I genuinely believe that.”
As you know, we’ve been following this legislation closely since the GENIUS Act passed the Senate on July 18, 2025.
Armstrong emphasized an obligation [on his part] to stand up for customers, who he believes would get a worse deal from banks under the bill’s current provisions.
The crypto industry largely shares Armstrong’s rejection of the existing bill. Despite the lobbying conflict, Armstrong mentioned that some commercial banks are working with Coinbase and using their infrastructure.
Coinbase was up 2% by the end of the interview on Fox Biz.
Silver Up 138%, Now a Whiplash Ride
In 2025, silver just posted its best year in 46 years, soaring 138%. The metal is now swinging like a rusty gate in a windstorm.
According to Goldman’s Lina Thomas, the price chaos began when traders moved silver stores from London to New York — after the U.S. floated potential tariffs on the metal. That sucked liquidity from London and sent prices skyward.
“If tariffs don’t materialize,” Thomas warns, “inventories could return to London, and prices may fall.”
For now, though, volatility is the name of the game. The supply chain is fragmented, the geopolitical backdrop is fragile, and investor demand is still strong.
Silver, like oil, is no longer just a commodity. It’s a geopolitical chess piece—a proxy for both monetary fear and industrial vulnerability.
Korean Stocks: The Japan Trade, Rebooted
In global equities, the biggest surprise of 2025 was South Korea.
The KOSPI 200 surged 95%, led by AI, semiconductors, and national defense. Now, analysts at Goldman think 2026 could be another breakout year.
Why? Because Korea is finally doing what Japan started in 2020 — corporate governance reform. Lower dividend taxes, shareholder-friendly policies, and low institutional ownership have created a fresh runway for valuations to rerate.
“Korea now has both the motive and the means,” says Enna Hattori.
In a world dominated by U.S. megacaps, this is worth watching. Especially as American investors begin to diversify away from the Big Seven and seek growth in overlooked corners of the global economy.
We suspect “dispersion” of capital will spread to emerging markets and global equities in 2026, as well as small caps and energy stocks.
The Dollar vs. Oil: A Looming Collision
While economists paint a rosy 2026, the foundations of the monetary system continue to shake.
The U.S. dollar is weakening as the M2 surge indicates. Energy prices are sticky. BRICS is working on a cross-border digital settlement system. And the petrodollar — once the backbone of global dollar demand — is facing its most credible challenge in 50 years.
We chronicled the Nixon-era deal with Saudi Arabia at length in Empire of Debt, which gave birth to the petrodollar. That bargain underwrote 50 years of borrowing, spending, and empire-building — without gold, without restraint.
Now, Trump is expected to make energy a centerpiece of his 2026 Davos speech next week, including new deals on critical minerals and a reassertion of U.S. energy independence.
That may include:
- Incentives for domestic refining of antimony, tungsten, and rare earths
- Strategic deals with friendly nations to secure supply chains
- A public framing of critical minerals as matters of national defense
We’ve already seen public-private partnerships forming between U.S. mining companies and the Department of War—yes, now formally used in some contexts per a 2025 executive order.
Behind the scenes, we’re speculating on which of the Fast41 companies will announce a deal with the U.S. government next. Details to come, for sure!
A Sneaky Crisis Investing Deal in Venezuela?
The most unlikely speculation of the week?
A $15,000 beachfront condo on a stunning Caribbean island… in Venezuela.
The country still has the world’s largest oil reserves, fertile agricultural land, and unspoiled beaches. But it also has a legacy of hyperinflation, social collapse, and violent crime.
Trump’s intervention in Caracas—colloquially dubbed the “Donroe Doctrine”—may have opened a new chapter. With Nicolás Maduro behind bars, U.S. oil companies sniffing around old wells, and whispers of tourism zones under international protection, Venezuela could be… investable?
The risk is existential. But so is the potential upside.
With local currency still in the toilet and foreign capital returning slowly, Venezuela could be one of those rare pre-crisis recoveries that deliver generational returns.
We had a meeting with Ronan McMahon, of Real Estate Trend Alert this morning.
Ronan’s group has been opening up real estate deals to individual investors on a global scale – on both coasts of Mexico, down under in Uruguay, and across the pond in Portugal.
Unique heads-up: Ronan invited Grey Swan to attend their private confab of global real estate investors known simply as The Gathering, which they’ll be hosting in Panama City, Panama. on March 13-15, 2026.
In return, we’ve made Ronan an honorary member of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity. He’ll be joining us for Grey Swan Live! On January 29, 2026 during which we’ll be diggin’ into more details about Ronan’s reach with developers in global real estate projects.
Given the cold spell stretching through the mid-Atlantic right now, The Gathering is definitely an event worth daydreaming about… more details as we work them out.
Cheers,
~ Addison
P.S. We overcame a few technical difficulties and beta tested our new community platform during Grey Swan Live! with Shad Marquitz yesterday.
We were pleasantly surprised to have fielded 164 comments and questions in the chat room during the one-hour conversation.
As we’ve long noted, Shad is an encyclopedia of information about precious metals, natural resources, miners and royalty companies and new developments in the space, especially now that the Trump administration has made supply chains and critical minerals a central part of its Great Reset strategy.
You can check out the replay for Grey Swan Live! Metals Mania with Shad Marquitz, right here.
If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.
