Deep Value Going Global in 2026

The S&P 500 is on track for another banner year, gaining double-digits.

On a valuation basis, U.S. stocks remain far more expensive than global counterparts:

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Based on forward earnings, only New Zealand is a more expensive market than the U.S. (Source:The Daily Shot)

With U.S. stocks trading at about 24 times forward earnings, plans for capital growth have to go off without a hitch. Given the billions of dollars in commitments by AI companies, financing to the hilt on debt, the most realistic outcome is a hitch.

On a valuation basis, global markets will likely show better returns than U.S. stocks in 2026.

America leads the world in innovation. A U.S. tech stock will naturally fetch a higher price than, say, a German brewery. But value matters, too.

In terms of overall returns and managing your money, 2026 looks like a good year for global value. For deep global value, check out this Grey Swan Live! replay with Chris Mayer from Woodlock House.

~ Addison

P.S. We’re beginning to review our 2025 Grey Swan forecasts and planning out our best new ideas for 2026 this week. Ever the contrarian, Mr. Packer is leaving balmy 70 degree weather for a 13 degree Baltimore tomorrow. He and more colleagues from all over will be in town for Friday’s holiday bash at the old school posh Maryland Club.

We have not scheduled a Grey Swan Live! for this Thursday. Next week, we’ll be back at it with a sneak preview of what we expect in 2026 and solid moves you can make before year-end.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

The S&P 500 is on track for another banner year, gaining double-digits.

On a valuation basis, U.S. stocks remain far more expensive than global counterparts:

Turn Your Images On

Based on forward earnings, only New Zealand is a more expensive market than the U.S. (Source:The Daily Shot)

On a valuation basis, global markets will likely show better returns than U.S. stocks in 2026.

America leads the world in innovation. A U.S. tech stock will naturally fetch a higher price than, say, a German brewery. But value matters, too.

In terms of overall returns and managing your money, 2026 looks like a good year for global value. For deep global value, check out this Grey Swan Live! replay with Chris Mayer from Woodlock House.

~ Addison

We have not scheduled a Grey Swan Live! for this Thursday. Next week, we’ll be back at it with a sneak preview of what we expect in 2026 and solid moves you can make before year-end.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time. That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!