The S&P 500 is on track for another banner year, gaining double-digits.
On a valuation basis, U.S. stocks remain far more expensive than global counterparts:
Based on forward earnings, only New Zealand is a more expensive market than the U.S. (Source:The Daily Shot)
With U.S. stocks trading at about 24 times forward earnings, plans for capital growth have to go off without a hitch. Given the billions of dollars in commitments by AI companies, financing to the hilt on debt, the most realistic outcome is a hitch.
On a valuation basis, global markets will likely show better returns than U.S. stocks in 2026.
America leads the world in innovation. A U.S. tech stock will naturally fetch a higher price than, say, a German brewery. But value matters, too.
In terms of overall returns and managing your money, 2026 looks like a good year for global value. For deep global value, check out this Grey Swan Live! replay with Chris Mayer from Woodlock House.
~ Addison
P.S. We’re beginning to review our 2025 Grey Swan forecasts and planning out our best new ideas for 2026 this week. Ever the contrarian, Mr. Packer is leaving balmy 70 degree weather for a 13 degree Baltimore tomorrow. He and more colleagues from all over will be in town for Friday’s holiday bash at the old school posh Maryland Club.
We have not scheduled a Grey Swan Live! for this Thursday. Next week, we’ll be back at it with a sneak preview of what we expect in 2026 and solid moves you can make before year-end.
If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.
