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Beneath the Surface

Debanking the Outsider

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

December 11, 2025 • 4 minute, 53 second read


CryptoTrump

Debanking the Outsider

“This wasn’t just happening to the Trumps. This was happening to conservatives all over the country.”

–Eric Trump

 

 

December 11, 2025 — Donald Trump has claimed for decades that he never wanted to be a politician. But he was (is) fine playing the role of “stress test” for the system.

In 2019, he mocked bitcoin as “thin air.” The man whose properties are gilded to the hilt unsurprisingly prefers gold.

But by 2021, he was effectively cut off from the digital economy. The same infrastructure that had amplified him… expelled him.

For the first time, a U.S. president learned what millions of ordinary people already knew: that access to the modern economy can be revoked by a handful of risk officers.

Kirk might have smiled grimly. When liberty becomes conditional, revolution of preservation becomes inevitable. And who gave them the right, anyway?

🔁 From “Thin Air” to Strategic Asset

During the campaign season, mid-2024, Trump had completed his conversion. At the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in Nashville, he declared:

“You are the modern-day Edisons and Wright Brothers… what you’re building will outlive us all.”

Within days, his campaign announced plans for a U.S. Bitcoin Stockpile — a “strategic reserve” of digital assets to ensure monetary independence. The same man who once called bitcoin a “scam” began referring to it as “infrastructure.”

In January 2025, the new administration issued an executive order halting any move toward a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) and establishing the Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the first spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10, 2024. Several asset managers, including major firms like BlackRock and Fidelity, were among the first to launch these funds, which are designed to track the price of bitcoin.

Our initial research on the total Bitcoin market, if fully adopted by institutional players, could reach $123 trillion—an unfathomable number. With only 21 million coins, full adoption would value each coin at $5.8 million. That’s unlikely, but even at a modest 10% adoption rate by Wall Street’s biggest firms, each bitcoin would reach $ 580,000, over 5 times today’s market price.

Under the Trump administration, the flagship crypto gained further regulatory approval.

In March 2025, the White House announced the creation of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Bitcoin represents a 15-17 year metacycle of innovation in blockchain being put into practice.

On July 17, 2025, the House passed H.R. 3633, the “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act”. And a day later, on July 18, 2025, the Senate passed the GENIUS Act — the first comprehensive federal framework for payment stablecoins.

You may recall that at the time on Grey Swan Live! we reviewed this seismic shift in the ground beneath the global monetary system.

Congress’s approval paved the way for a clear and supportive regulatory environment to be developed for what is broadly referred to as stablecoins.

Dollar-backed tokens, which are fully audited and redeemable, are now considered legal tender equivalents. Digital money has become lawful, neutral, and — most importantly — independent.

This was lawfare turned inside out: regulation not to control citizens, but to protect them from political gatekeeping. And preserve the original idea of America, which includes economic freedom.

⚙️ The Second Revolution’s Architecture

We’re now seeing the bulwark in real time.

  • Dollar 2.0: Stable, digital, transparent, redeemable.

  • Lawfare → Law Fairness: The law now guarantees participation.

  • Open Rails: Transactions clear instantly, without moral judgment, or bank fees.

  • Strategic Alignment: Treasury gains stability; citizens gain autonomy.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called stablecoins, including USDC, “a pillar of dollar strength,” estimating a $2 trillion market within five years. U.S. Treasuries back every coin.

Bessent’s formula even suggests that a broader, more efficient market for US dollars will help retain its best use case as the reserve currency of global finance… and, perhaps, help the current administration address the nation’s $37 trillion mountain of debt.

In trying to cancel a man, the establishment accidentally reinforced the dollar, and may add decades to its life as a useful currency.

There’s more. A lot more.

In 2008, an anonymous coder named Satoshi Nakamoto posted a short paper online titled “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System.” It wasn’t a manifesto; it was a manual. The paper outlined how to move money directly between people — no banks, no gatekeepers, no middlemen to “pause” your transaction because they disapproved of your politics or your haircut.

That idea — money without permission — was the spark. But the real fire is what came after: tokenization.

Tokenized assets take that same blockchain technology and apply it to everything else — real estate, art, stocks, even bundles of student loans. Each becomes a secure digital token that can be traded instantly, settled automatically, and transferred for pennies, rather than fees that support a small army of bankers and bureaucrats.

It’s smarter, faster, cheaper, and nearly impossible to censor — a win for savers and investors, and a headache for the legacy financial system now sprinting to catch up.

The research firm Mordor Intelligence puts the market for all tokenized assets at $13.5 trillion by 203o, just five years from now.

Our own estimates put the total value of tokenized assets far beyond Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s projection for the stablecoin market. Stablecoins are just the down payment; tokenization is the mortgage on the future.

 Once tokenization assets become routinely tradable, the sky’s the limit. Our goal is to ride the buildout of infrastructure. 

 

Addison Wiggin

 

Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

 

P.S. This piece first appeared in our November Grey Swan Bulletin. The final piece hits your inbox tomorrow…

Meanwhile, we’re beginning to review our 2025 Grey Swan forecasts and planning out our best new ideas for 2026 this week. 

We have no scheduled a Grey Swan Live! for this week. Next week, we’ll be back at it with a sneak preview of what we expect in 2026 and solid moves you can make before year-end.


Grey Swan #4: America’s Covert Resource War in South America

December 30, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

If the U.S. can no longer afford to police the world, it will prioritize what sits closest to home. Oil, lithium, copper, rare earths, food, and shipping lanes in the Western Hemisphere matter more to America’s economic resilience than abstract security guarantees signed eight decades ago.

The Financial Times captured this shift late in 2025, noting that U.S. foreign policy is “increasingly transactional, geographically compressed, and resource-oriented.” Bloomberg went further, describing a “hemispheric retrenchment” underway beneath the noise of global diplomacy.

We have observed passively that empires of the past, burdened by debt, stop expanding ideologically and start contracting strategically. If nothing else, this is a guide that helps decipher Trump’s comedic efforts at the podium on the second-term victory tour he’s on.

Grey Swan #4: America’s Covert Resource War in South America
Grey Swan #5: The European Union Fractures Under the Weight of War, Debt, and Bureaucracy

December 29, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

By 2026, all four supports will demonstrate that they’ve weakened simultaneously. As true as it may or may not be, it’s not likely to be understood, let alone covered by old-school national media.

Debt narrows choices. War hardens politics. False bureaucratic authority substitutes for something, trust, maybe. Nationalists will be more than willing to fill the vacuum.

Europe’s fracture will feel gradual. Policy coherence will erode further. Markets will adapt and look to the Middle and/or Far East to finance the Ponzi finance on display in New York and London.

Grey Swan #5: The European Union Fractures Under the Weight of War, Debt, and Bureaucracy
Grey Swan Forecast #6: China Annexes Taiwan — Without a Shot Fired

December 26, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Our forecast will feel obvious in hindsight and controversial in advance — the hallmark of a Grey Swan.

Most analysts we speak to are thinking in terms of the history of Western conflict. 

They expect full-frontal military engagement.

Beijing, from our modest perch, prefers resolution because resolution compounds its power. Why sacrifice the workshop of the world, when cajoling and bribery will do?

Taiwan will not fall.

It will merge.

Grey Swan Forecast #6: China Annexes Taiwan — Without a Shot Fired
Grey Swan Forecast #7: A Global Debt Crisis Will Reprice Democracy

December 24, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Wars, technology races, and political upheavals — all of them rest on fiscal capacity.

In 2026, that capacity will tighten across the developed world simultaneously. Democracies will discover that generosity financed by debt carries conditions, whether voters approve of them or not.

Bond markets will not shout so much as clear their throats. Repeatedly.

Grey Swan Forecast #7: A Global Debt Crisis Will Reprice Democracy