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Ripple Effect

Data So Bad, The Fed Buried It

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

July 28, 2025 • 1 minute, 28 second read


banking systemFedunrealized losses

Data So Bad, The Fed Buried It

The Federal Reserve is sitting on a time bomb…

It has over $468 billion in unrealized losses.

That reflects assets on the balance sheet that are trading for much lower than what the bank paid for them.

Yes, that’s the Fed’s the job as “lender of last resort.” They buy stressed assets, swap them out with higher-quality ones, and then either absorb the loss or wait for prices to improve.

But here’s trouble. The Fed isn’t alone in holding unrealized losses.

The commercial banking system also saw its unrealized losses soar as the Fed started hiking interest rates in 2022. Three of the largest bank failures in US history occurred between March and May 2023.

It got so bad, so quickly, the Fed discontinued the data partway through the year:

Turn Your Images On

America’s banks were in trouble before the Fed finished hiking interest rates – so much so that
the central bank discontinued reporting the data.

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) – the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history in 2023 – grabbed the most headlines.

SVB had total losses of $16.1 billion alone—nearly 25% of the losses reported in 2022 a year earlier.

Today, with interest rates still relatively high, commercial banks continue to sit on massive losses.

The Fed’s existence is a paradox…

On paper, it’s supposed to smooth out economic cycles.

In reality, it tends to exacerbate them. Each crisis that brews is larger and more far-reaching than the last.

Since the 1987 crash, each crisis—which should be a time to clear out bad debts and start fresh—has been covered up with more and more freshly printed money.

Only this time is different.

The Fed became insolvent for the first time in its history in September 2022.

The crisis is coming to a head.

~ Addison


George Gilder: Led by Coherent, The Data Center is Turning to the Light

October 9, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As AI clusters demand more light at every layer — from rack to package — Coherent’s share of that energy pathway increases. The startups illustrate what’s possible; Coherent ensures it happens.

As light enters the data center — step by step, layer by layer — Coherent is the most experienced and scaled name in the field. It carries the light forward.

George Gilder: Led by Coherent, The Data Center is Turning to the Light
The New Law That Broke the Old Law

October 9, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

For decades, Moore’s Law — that the number of transistors on a chip doubles every two years — was the quiet metronome of progress. It defined an era. AI just smashed that clock.

Global data center spending will hit $900 billion by 2028, Kobeissi notes. AI servers are growing at a compound rate of +41%, with the overall market expanding +23%.

Just building the facilities, not including chips or servers, now costs $43 billion a year — up 322% in just four years. There are $40 billion worth of U.S. data centers under construction right now, up 400% since 2022.

For the first time in history, the total value of U.S. data centers under construction will soon exceed office buildings.

More than a metaphor, we’re living through a civilizational shift. The upside Grey Swan event, in our opinion, is that the narrative unfolds without any political interruptions or blowouts in the currency and credit markets. 

The New Law That Broke the Old Law
Speedrunning Rome

October 9, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Technology is a double-edged sword. We’re still living in the long tail of a hard money, capitalist society – and reaping new technologies out of it.

But the destruction of the purchasing power of the dollar stands to create a crisis – and drive investors back to safe havens like gold.

Speedrunning Rome
George Gilder: Intel: Sell the Rumors, Await the News

October 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

All these rumors could work out to Intel’s benefit. That’s something no investor can know. What we can know is that the road to recovery will be a rocky one, fraught with disappointments along the way. It is all but certain that at some point, Intel stock will once again be far cheaper than it is today. And at that later date, investors will have far more information to be able to judge the likely success of the promised comeback. We’re not going to buy the rumors. We will wait for the news.

George Gilder: Intel: Sell the Rumors, Await the News