Consumers Got the Memo

Although consumer debt is at an all-time high, consumers themselves got the message during the last crisis: Pay down debt, own more assets.

That’s taken the U.S. household debt-to-asset ratio to levels last seen in the 1970s, around the time the U.S. went off the gold standard:

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Households, unlike government, have paid down their debt and benefited from rising asset prices (Source: FRED)

Contrast that with government. The U.S. government, still enduring its longest “shutdown” ever, managed to grow its debt by half a trillion dollars – while its doors were officially closed!

Rising government debt, moreso relative to GDP than the total value, is on the precipice of full-blown crisis level. When the government gets into trouble, households need to be prepared.

We expect the end of AI buildout euphoria in the stock market may be the catalyst. What you can do right is get your own financial house in order. Pay off debt. Own hard assets. Don’t borrow to invest in the stock market.

~ Addison

P.S. We’ve invited Bloomberg’s #1 employment analyst Andrew Zatlin, to join us tomorrow on Grey Swan Live! for obvious reasons:

Andrew Zatlin — the #1-ranked economic forecaster on Bloomberg and one of the most connected data minds in finance.

For decades, Andrew has helped billion-dollar hedge funds stay three steps ahead of Washington’s chaos, consumer shifts, and global supply chain shocks.

As unemployment ticks up, politicians trade on insider intel, and Pelosi closes out an era, he’ll reveal what his data is signaling next — and what investors should prepare for.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Although consumer debt is at an all-time high, consumers themselves got the message during the last crisis: Pay down debt, own more assets.

That’s taken the U.S. household debt-to-asset ratio to levels last seen in the 1970s, around the time the U.S. went off the gold standard:

Turn Your Images On

Households, unlike government, have paid down their debt and benefited from rising asset prices (Source: FRED)

Contrast that with government. The U.S. government, still enduring its longest “shutdown” ever, managed to grow its debt by half a trillion dollars – while its doors were officially closed!

Rising government debt, moreso relative to GDP than the total value, is on the precipice of full-blown crisis level. When the government gets into trouble, households need to be prepared.

~ Addison

P.S. We’ve invited Bloomberg’s #1 employment analyst Andrew Zatlin, to join us tomorrow on Grey Swan Live! for obvious reasons:

Andrew Zatlin — the #1-ranked economic forecaster on Bloomberg and one of the most connected data minds in finance.

For decades, Andrew has helped billion-dollar hedge funds stay three steps ahead of Washington’s chaos, consumer shifts, and global supply chain shocks.

As unemployment ticks up, politicians trade on insider intel, and Pelosi closes out an era, he’ll reveal what his data is signaling next — and what investors should prepare for.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

With the United States conducting what the Pentagon politely calls an “operation” against Iranian military infrastructure, markets have had every reason to be panicky. Instead, the past week delivered something subtler…

Gold has been consolidating after a powerful multiyear rally. Yet with America’s gold reserves equal to only about 3% of federal debt, the metal could still have significant upside ahead.

The Federal Reserve can print money, but it can’t print oil. As energy prices surge and supply disruptions loom, the central bank may find itself with limited tools to fight inflation driven by real-world shortages.

The plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve would leave the U.S. with its smallest stockpile of emergency oil in more than four decades. And with tensions simmering globally, the shrinking reserve raises uncomfortable questions about how prepared the U.S. is for the next supply disruption…

Gold has been consolidating after a powerful multiyear rally. Yet with America’s gold reserves equal to only about 3% of federal debt, the metal could still have significant upside ahead.