GSI Banner
  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • My Account
  • Sign In
  • Join Now

  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • Contact

© 2025 Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

  • Cookie Policy
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information
  • Whitelist Us
Beneath the Surface

Climate Jeezus Taketh Away

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

January 13, 2025 • 5 minute, 4 second read


Housingwildfires

Climate Jeezus Taketh Away

“State Farm, my insurer for decades, canceled my insurance and everyone in our immediate neighborhood just before the fire. State Farm WASN’T there. . . .” — James Woods

James Howard Kunstler
Jan 13, 2025

“So-called progressives finally achieved what they supposedly warned of but in truth wished for: the eviction of the affluent descendants of colonizers, the incineration of their homes, and the destruction of a city that, more than any other, represents our bloody history of white supremacy and conquest.” — Michael Shellenberger

For those in the USA with an interest in collapsing the USA, the Los Angeles fire is the gift that will keep on giving, and George Soros hardly had to cough up a dime to make it happen. From the Diversity, Equity, & Inclusion angle, the fire got‘er done, cleansing nearly the entire PacPal population of snooty, rich, white “allies” of the oppressed and marginalized — who will now have LA to themselves. Chez Whitey is “closed for renovations,” and it might be twenty years before it can re-open, if ever.

Probably never, if the California Coastal Commission has anything to say about it. And why wouldn’t they? They do not generally approve of stuff getting built right up on the beach. They were probably all down on their knees Sunday in the Church of Luxury Belief thanking Climate Jeezus for sweeping Malibu and the hills above it clean.

Ronald Reagan’s daughter, Patti Davis, rent her garments in The New York Times Sunday op-ed page, wailing:

“My anger over what we have done to this fragile, exquisite Earth was muffled by grief until the other evening when I was watching a news program that had a panel of commentators. The subject was Los Angeles on fire, and one person mentioned climate change as a cause. Another commentator smirked and said he didn’t believe it was the cause.

I felt rage surge up past my grief.

My first thought was: “You think you know more than scientists?”

Of course, my first thought reading that was: Who is paying those scientists? The same question you might ask of the scientists at the CDC, NIH, FDA, and NIAID who declared that Covid-19 was definitely not created in a Wuhan lab, and the mRNA vaccines were “safe and effective.” My second thought was: could you possibly find a better example of elite Utopian-Woke performative acting-out? My third thought was: since when are “experts” infallible? My fourth thought was: doesn’t science advance on the basis of continuous argument? My fifth thought was: if Patti Davis is watching the news, she must be in some comfortable and probably luxurious place that did not burn down. So much for my thoughts, entertained without the rending of garments.

More to the point of the fire itself, you must wonder what is happening to those tens of thousands of displaced persons and families right now? How many of them are sleeping out on their smoldering properties, or in their cars, or just shivering on a sidewalk somewhere. It does not seem possible that they all found a place to go, certainly not at their neighbors’ houses, who were all burnt-out, too. . . and there are just so many hotel rooms not occupied by “the undocumented.” Anyway, how many families can stay in hotel rooms that go for $1,000-a-night, and for how many nights? How many of them lost absolutely everything, including the possibility of a future?

Which gets you to the realization that we have barely begun to see the knock-on effects of this catastrophe. Those tens of thousands of the burnt-out will not be reporting to work anytime soon. They will have all they can do to find a roof over their heads while they hassle with FEMA officials, State of California bureaucrats, insurance company claims agents, and other “helpers.” The rebuilding quandaries have already been rehearsed in the news. Even if politicians suspended all the building and zoning codes, and the tax issues, where will so many contractors come from in any reasonable time-frame? And where do you put all that melted plastic goop and toxic ash that remains on-the-ground where peoples’ lives used to be?

If you lost a house valued at $5-million, it will cost you at least $10-million to replace it. Good luck, even if you were a mid-level movie star. Of course, if your insurance got cancelled lately — or you just didn’t have any because it cost too much — then there is zero chance you will get to even fantasize about living in the hills above Malibu ever again. And that job you’re not able to go to right now due to the pressing needs of sheer survival on Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs. . . you might never go to that job again. The business you worked for might not be there anymore, either.

If there was ever a proverbial last-grain-of-sand-in-a-landslide, the Great 2025 Los Angeles Fire must be a sure thing vis-a-vis the US economy, especially the financial side of it. An awful lot of homeowners will not be paying their mortgages on a smoldering empty lot. The banks are not in super-fabulous condition these days. How many loans-gone-bad will it take to wreck already unstable banks? And, by the way, the collateral isn’t even there anymore. The re-po man is out of the picture.

What happens to the insurance companies? And the re-insurance companies who theoretically stand behind the insurers? I’ll tell you what happens: they will be backstopped by the government, which doesn’t have the money to backstop them. . . but will create it out of pixels on screens. . . which means expect a considerable uptick in inflation (i.e., a downtick in the purchasing power of the dollar), which will be a black eye for the new Trump administration. How does all this thunder through the US economy as a whole?

Nobody really know just yet, but the signs are not reassuring. You can infer countless chains-of-consequence. Friday’s action in the financial markets felt like a tremor of things to come. The Bubble-of All-Bubbles abides. . . for how long?

~~James Howard Kunstler


Stay the Course on Bitcoin

November 21, 2025 • Ian King

The narrative for BTC and other cryptocurrencies is that every government around the world has high debt-to-GDP ratios. It means they are going to print more currency. It means there is a need for alternative currency. In the past, this alternative currency was gold.

Gold is not very portable. It’s a good store of value. It’s not as great of a store of value as BTC in terms of actually storing it. BTC, you can store it on a hard drive or at Coinbase. Gold, if you have bars you have to keep them in a bank or you have to dig a hole in your backyard. And you can’t send gold around the world as easily as you can send BTC.

I still think this rally has legs. If you go back to where the breakout happened, we were really in November of 2024 that was the beginning of this bull market in my mind because that was the first time we hit an all-time high in a couple years. Then we rallied. We pulled back. We tested that level again.

The uptrend, in my mind and with what I’m seeing, is still intact. We’re just in an oversold condition right now.

Stay the Course on Bitcoin
A $900 Billion Whiplash

November 21, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Nvidia’s $900 billion round-trip this week wasn’t about some revelation in Jensen Huang’s chip factory. The business is firing on all cylinders – and may yet be one more reason for the market to soar higher into 2026.

The culprit was the macro — one gust of wind from the labor market and trillions in valuation shifted like sand dunes.

Nvidia’s earnings lifted the market at the open, but the jobs report’s undertow snapped sentiment like a dry twig. As we pointed out this morning, the S&P notched its biggest intraday reversal since April.

The first half of the move was classic Wall Street choreography: blowout earnings, analysts breathless with adjectives, and every fund manager terrified of underweighting the patron saint of AI.

A $900 Billion Whiplash
About Yesterday’s Slump

November 21, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

In April, following the “Liberation Day” low, the indexes took off in the morning only to crash later in the day. The first and only other time in history we have seen a strong bullish opening followed by a sharp bearish close was during the 2020 recovery from the Covid shock.

In both cases, the markets were rebounding from exogenous shocks.

That’s not where we are today. The index-level charts may look composed, but underneath plenty of individual stocks are trading as if they’ve already slipped into a private bear market of their own.

We’ll see how the day unfolds. It’s options-expiration Friday — the monthly opex ritual when traders roll positions forward, unwind old bets, and generally yank prices around like terriers with a chew toy.

About Yesterday’s Slump
The Internet Just Got Its Own Money

November 20, 2025 • Ian King

Every major tech shift has followed a similar pattern. As information moves faster, the money follows.

The telegraph made news global and opened up a world of investment opportunities. Radio, and then television, ignited a new wave of prosperity for investors. And the internet made communication instant, creating fortunes for those who saw what was coming.

Now standards like x402 are doing the same for AI and digital payments, potentially putting Jamie Dimon’s empire in jeopardy.

If you have Coinbase building the payment rails, Circle handling settlement and projects like Worldcoin and Particle Network solving for identity and wallets — do you really need a bank to validate transactions and keep track of who owns what?

All of these companies are helping to build a new layer of fintech infrastructure. And they’re all working toward an economy that runs continuously, without the need for corporate scaffolding.

The Internet Just Got Its Own Money