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Beneath the Surface

Breaking down the fiscal train-wreck of 2024

Loading ...James Hickman

January 11, 2025 • 2 minute, 49 second read


debtdebt bubbleGovernment Spending

Breaking down the fiscal train-wreck of 2024

~~James Hickman, Schiff-Sovereign

 

In the calendar year of 2024, the government racked up a $1.74 trillion deficit.

But the national debt actually increased by an even higher $2.23 trillion from January 1, 2024 through December 31, 2024.

That’s a lot of money spent for a Congress that never even passed a budget!

The entire year, Congress relied on continuing resolutions to fund government operations. And most of these hinged around political battles that almost caused government shutdowns each time.

And both of these factors—the actual numbers and the dysfunction— threaten the status of the dollar as the global reserve currency.

The actual spending included things like $12 million for a Las Vegas Pickleball Complex, and $15 million the nearly bankrupt Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation spent on furniture for largely empty offices that federal employees refuse to report to.

But these, though ridiculous, are sadly miniscule expenditures to the US government.

It spent a total of $10 BILLION maintaining, leasing, and furnishing those almost entirely empty federal office buildings.

$6 billion disappeared in Ukraine, adding to the $65 billion total since 2022.

$88 BILLION went to brand new Navy vessels that quickly developed broken hulls, grinding transmissions, leaks, broken mission modules, and failed communications encryption.

The federal government also spent $236 BILLION making improper payments to the wrong people through Medicaid, unemployment insurance, and tax credits.

A billion here, 200 billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking about real money.

And again, the actual debt and deficit numbers themselves are bad enough to risk the status of the dollar. But the embarrassing failures and absurd priorities erode another important aspect of the dollar’s status: trust and confidence.

For example, a 2024 Inspector General report found that at LEAST $293 million worth of foreign aid was given to the Taliban, because there were no efforts to ensure Afghanistan-based NGOs (non-governmental organizations) received the money as intended.

This is sadly a drop in the bucket. But the fact that the US is literally handing its sworn enemy cash— in addition to the guns and equipment it left behind in Afghanistan— is a shameful embarrassment.

As if the government wasn’t $36 trillion in debt.

A serious government would cut everywhere it could. Instead:

  • A $2 million grant from Health and Human Services (HHS) funded a study on kids looking at Facebook ads about food.
  • HHS also spent $419,470 to find out that lonely rats are more likely than happy rats to do cocaine.
  • The US government took on more debt to spend $3 Million for ‘Girl-Centered Climate Action’ in Brazil.
  • Taxpayers paid $873,584 to fund movies in Jordan.
  • $2.1 million was spent on border security. Unfortunately for US taxpayers, it was to secure Paraguay’s border.

I mean sure, every deficit dollar brings America closer to losing the global reserve currency, but at least the Bearded Ladies Cabaret got a $10,000 grant for their climate change focused ice skating show.

The incoming administration has made it a priority to turn this around, eliminate waste, and strengthen the dollar’s position.

They certainly seem to be serious, and have a great team on their side.

And with so many idiotic expenditures, it’s pretty obvious where to start. Just stop spending on stupid things, and America will be heading in the right direction.

But the scale and scope of that idiocy is staggering. If they don’t manage to turn it around, you will be happy you had a Plan B.

To your freedom,

James Hickman
Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC


Dan Amoss: Squanderville Is Running Out Of Quick Fixes

December 19, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Relative to GDP, the net international investment claim on the U.S. economy was 20% in 2003. It had swollen to 65% by 2023. Practically every type of American company, bond, or real estate asset now has some degree of foreign ownership.

But it’s even worse than that. As the federal deficit has pumped up the GDP figures, and made a larger share of the economy dependent on government spending, the quality and sustainability of GDP have deteriorated. So, foreigners, to the extent they are paying attention, are accumulating claims on an economy that has been eroded by inefficient, government-directed spending and “investments.” Why should foreign creditors maintain confidence in the integrity of these paper claims? Only to the extent that their economies are even worse off. And in the case of China, that’s probably true.

Dan Amoss: Squanderville Is Running Out Of Quick Fixes
Debt Is the Message, 2026

December 19, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As global government interest expense climbed, gold quietly followed it higher. The IIF estimates that interest costs on government debt now run at nearly $4.9 trillion annually. Over the same span, gold prices have tracked that burden almost one-for-one.

Silver has recently gone along for the ride, with even more enthusiasm.

Since early 2023, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has risen roughly 150 basis points, touching levels not seen since the 1990s.

Over that same period, gold prices have surged about 135%, while silver is up roughly 175%. Zoom out two years, and the divergence becomes starker still: gold up 114%, silver up 178%, while the S&P 500 gained 44%.

Debt Is the Message, 2026
Mind Your Allocation In 2026

December 19, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

According to the American Association of Individual Investors, the average retail investor has about a 70% allocation to stocks. That’s well over the traditional 60/40 split between stocks and bonds. Even a 60/40 allocation ignores real estate, gold, collectibles, and private assets.

A pullback in the 10% range – which is likely in any given year – will prompt investors to scream as if it’s the end of the world.

Our “panic now, avoid the rush” strategy is simple.

Take tech profits off the table, raise some cash, and focus on industry-leading companies that pay dividends. Roll those dividends up and use compounding to your overall portfolio’s advantage.

Mind Your Allocation In 2026
Dan Amoss: Perfect Competition Will Crush AI Profits

December 18, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

In a healthy economy, production and consumption communicate constantly. If a company builds something useful, customers respond by buying it. If they overbuild, inventories pile up and prices fall, sending a signal to slow down.

AI infrastructure, by contrast, is being built largely on faith. Companies are scaling up compute power without clear signs of sustainable demand. Unlike oil and gas, where prices adjust second-by-second, AI companies operate in a fog. They release tools, collect usage stats, and hope that paid conversions will follow.

But hope is not a business model.

Dan Amoss: Perfect Competition Will Crush AI Profits