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Beneath the Surface

Breaking down the fiscal train-wreck of 2024

Loading ...James Hickman

January 11, 2025 • 2 minute, 49 second read


debtdebt bubbleGovernment Spending

Breaking down the fiscal train-wreck of 2024

~~James Hickman, Schiff-Sovereign

 

In the calendar year of 2024, the government racked up a $1.74 trillion deficit.

But the national debt actually increased by an even higher $2.23 trillion from January 1, 2024 through December 31, 2024.

That’s a lot of money spent for a Congress that never even passed a budget!

The entire year, Congress relied on continuing resolutions to fund government operations. And most of these hinged around political battles that almost caused government shutdowns each time.

And both of these factors—the actual numbers and the dysfunction— threaten the status of the dollar as the global reserve currency.

The actual spending included things like $12 million for a Las Vegas Pickleball Complex, and $15 million the nearly bankrupt Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation spent on furniture for largely empty offices that federal employees refuse to report to.

But these, though ridiculous, are sadly miniscule expenditures to the US government.

It spent a total of $10 BILLION maintaining, leasing, and furnishing those almost entirely empty federal office buildings.

$6 billion disappeared in Ukraine, adding to the $65 billion total since 2022.

$88 BILLION went to brand new Navy vessels that quickly developed broken hulls, grinding transmissions, leaks, broken mission modules, and failed communications encryption.

The federal government also spent $236 BILLION making improper payments to the wrong people through Medicaid, unemployment insurance, and tax credits.

A billion here, 200 billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking about real money.

And again, the actual debt and deficit numbers themselves are bad enough to risk the status of the dollar. But the embarrassing failures and absurd priorities erode another important aspect of the dollar’s status: trust and confidence.

For example, a 2024 Inspector General report found that at LEAST $293 million worth of foreign aid was given to the Taliban, because there were no efforts to ensure Afghanistan-based NGOs (non-governmental organizations) received the money as intended.

This is sadly a drop in the bucket. But the fact that the US is literally handing its sworn enemy cash— in addition to the guns and equipment it left behind in Afghanistan— is a shameful embarrassment.

As if the government wasn’t $36 trillion in debt.

A serious government would cut everywhere it could. Instead:

  • A $2 million grant from Health and Human Services (HHS) funded a study on kids looking at Facebook ads about food.
  • HHS also spent $419,470 to find out that lonely rats are more likely than happy rats to do cocaine.
  • The US government took on more debt to spend $3 Million for ‘Girl-Centered Climate Action’ in Brazil.
  • Taxpayers paid $873,584 to fund movies in Jordan.
  • $2.1 million was spent on border security. Unfortunately for US taxpayers, it was to secure Paraguay’s border.

I mean sure, every deficit dollar brings America closer to losing the global reserve currency, but at least the Bearded Ladies Cabaret got a $10,000 grant for their climate change focused ice skating show.

The incoming administration has made it a priority to turn this around, eliminate waste, and strengthen the dollar’s position.

They certainly seem to be serious, and have a great team on their side.

And with so many idiotic expenditures, it’s pretty obvious where to start. Just stop spending on stupid things, and America will be heading in the right direction.

But the scale and scope of that idiocy is staggering. If they don’t manage to turn it around, you will be happy you had a Plan B.

To your freedom,

James Hickman
Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC


A (Brief) Sign Of Markets To Come

January 29, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

In one refrain from our book Empire of Debt, we warned that late-stage credit systems always suffer the same fate: the debasement of money disguised as growth. Ray Dalio said the quiet part out loud in an interview yesterday:

“If you depreciate the money, it makes everything look like it’s going up.”

Which is precisely why the markets get jittery at the top. And why politics are as wacky and polarized as they have been.

In New York, Mayor Zohran Mamdani is demanding higher taxes on the rich to plug budget holes left by former Mayor Adams. He wants billions from Albany. Governor Hochul has yet to weigh in.

In California, Sergey Brin, Eric Schmidt, and other Silicon Valley billionaires are backing a new pro-business PAC to fight a proposed 5% wealth tax on the state’s 200 richest residents. Larry Page has already moved to Florida. The line to Nevada is forming.

Ray Dalio, again, with the map:

“When governments run large deficits and the debt is no longer bought willingly, they have two choices: raise taxes and cut spending, or print money. Those that can print, do. Those that can’t, fall apart.”

Populist politics surge. Moderates vanish. Scapegoating begins. The wealth gap widens until it becomes an impassable chasm.

A (Brief) Sign Of Markets To Come
Stocks Hit a 12 Year Low

January 29, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The S&P 500 topped 7,000 for the first time yesterday, adding to its stack of all-time highs this year and continuing the trend set in 2025.

But… those highs are measured in dollars. When priced in gold, which topped $5,500 — also a historic number—  this morning, stocks are actually at a 12-year low.

Stocks Hit a 12 Year Low
A Large And Growing Wealth Gap

January 28, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Trump is trying to force two converging economic events that haven’t aligned like this in over 40 years.

The first is the cost of borrowing. After the fastest rate-hiking cycle in decades, rates are rolling over. Trump wants them at 1%. Jerome Powell’s term ends at the Fed on May 15. The path is being cleared for a true believer in lower interest rates to take his spot.

The second is the cost of living. Oil has fallen from $95 to just over $60 in a year. Gas is averaging $2.88 nationally. And because oil feeds into everything — shipping, food, plastics — falling prices cascade across the economy. The capture of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro is not a coincidence. Venezuela is one of the leading exporters in the OPEC block of oil producers.

A Large And Growing Wealth Gap
The Buck Gets Whacked

January 28, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

A push for lower interest rates, jawboning by Trump administration officials, and concerns over U.S. debt levels are giving the dollar a good thrashing.

Dollar-denominated assets, from global commodities to U.S. stocks — even competing fiat currencies — will see prices rise versus the U.S. variety until this trend shifts.

The Buck Gets Whacked