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Beneath the Surface

Breaking down the fiscal train-wreck of 2024

Loading ...James Hickman

January 11, 2025 • 2 minute, 49 second read


debtdebt bubbleGovernment Spending

Breaking down the fiscal train-wreck of 2024

~~James Hickman, Schiff-Sovereign

 

In the calendar year of 2024, the government racked up a $1.74 trillion deficit.

But the national debt actually increased by an even higher $2.23 trillion from January 1, 2024 through December 31, 2024.

That’s a lot of money spent for a Congress that never even passed a budget!

The entire year, Congress relied on continuing resolutions to fund government operations. And most of these hinged around political battles that almost caused government shutdowns each time.

And both of these factors—the actual numbers and the dysfunction— threaten the status of the dollar as the global reserve currency.

The actual spending included things like $12 million for a Las Vegas Pickleball Complex, and $15 million the nearly bankrupt Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation spent on furniture for largely empty offices that federal employees refuse to report to.

But these, though ridiculous, are sadly miniscule expenditures to the US government.

It spent a total of $10 BILLION maintaining, leasing, and furnishing those almost entirely empty federal office buildings.

$6 billion disappeared in Ukraine, adding to the $65 billion total since 2022.

$88 BILLION went to brand new Navy vessels that quickly developed broken hulls, grinding transmissions, leaks, broken mission modules, and failed communications encryption.

The federal government also spent $236 BILLION making improper payments to the wrong people through Medicaid, unemployment insurance, and tax credits.

A billion here, 200 billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking about real money.

And again, the actual debt and deficit numbers themselves are bad enough to risk the status of the dollar. But the embarrassing failures and absurd priorities erode another important aspect of the dollar’s status: trust and confidence.

For example, a 2024 Inspector General report found that at LEAST $293 million worth of foreign aid was given to the Taliban, because there were no efforts to ensure Afghanistan-based NGOs (non-governmental organizations) received the money as intended.

This is sadly a drop in the bucket. But the fact that the US is literally handing its sworn enemy cash— in addition to the guns and equipment it left behind in Afghanistan— is a shameful embarrassment.

As if the government wasn’t $36 trillion in debt.

A serious government would cut everywhere it could. Instead:

  • A $2 million grant from Health and Human Services (HHS) funded a study on kids looking at Facebook ads about food.
  • HHS also spent $419,470 to find out that lonely rats are more likely than happy rats to do cocaine.
  • The US government took on more debt to spend $3 Million for ‘Girl-Centered Climate Action’ in Brazil.
  • Taxpayers paid $873,584 to fund movies in Jordan.
  • $2.1 million was spent on border security. Unfortunately for US taxpayers, it was to secure Paraguay’s border.

I mean sure, every deficit dollar brings America closer to losing the global reserve currency, but at least the Bearded Ladies Cabaret got a $10,000 grant for their climate change focused ice skating show.

The incoming administration has made it a priority to turn this around, eliminate waste, and strengthen the dollar’s position.

They certainly seem to be serious, and have a great team on their side.

And with so many idiotic expenditures, it’s pretty obvious where to start. Just stop spending on stupid things, and America will be heading in the right direction.

But the scale and scope of that idiocy is staggering. If they don’t manage to turn it around, you will be happy you had a Plan B.

To your freedom,

James Hickman
Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC


Silver’s Parabolic Move

January 26, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Silver is now up 54% year-to, err, month-to-date. And up over 280% since the start of 2025.

While we don’t know how much further upside is left, prior parabolic moves like these tend to lead to big pullbacks when they end.

“If you’re tempted to take a screenshot of your portfolio, it’s a good idea to take some profits while you’re doing that,” suggests our Portfolio Director, Andrew Packer.

We’d do so to grab some of those silver profits, simply because even though we started dollar-cost-averaging (DCA) into gold and silver in 2018 – silver was $16.47 – no assets can go parabolic, like silver has, indefinitely.

Silver’s Parabolic Move
Consensus Is a Dangerous Drug

January 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

We’ve entered a new territory on Wall Street: for the first time in recorded history, zero strategists are predicting a down year.

Not “most are bullish.”

Not “nearly all expect gains.”

Zero bearish calls for 2026.

Unanimity so complete it resembles a vote in a collapsing authoritarian state.

Consensus Is a Dangerous Drug
Japan’s Own Buyer of Last Resort… Sells

January 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The Bank of Japan’s holdings of its own government’s bonds are now near a 10-year low.

The yen carry trade has been a constant in global finance for 3 decades. Currently, the unwind is throwing the Japanese government into a crisis of historic proportions.

Americans take note. Not only are Japanese bonds undermining the AI rally on Wall Street. The crisis is a cautionary tale for the U.S. efforts to finance its own historic debt load.

Japan’s Own Buyer of Last Resort… Sells
The Leverage Doctrine

January 22, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The dollar’s share of global reserves is now roughly 40%, down from 60% in 2016. No other fiat currency filled the gap. Gold did.

That is the only fact you need to understand the long-term arc.

After the West demonstrated it could seize reserves, “safe” became a new word. Gold has no counterparty. It cannot be frozen with an executive order. It does not require permission to settle.

The Leverage Doctrine