Beneath the Surface
Breaking down the fiscal train-wreck of 2024
January 11, 2025 • 2 minute, 49 second read

~~James Hickman, Schiff-Sovereign
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January 11, 2025 • 2 minute, 49 second read

~~James Hickman, Schiff-Sovereign
February 13, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Despite a stock market within 3% of its all-time highs, your portfolio likely feels a bigger pinch right now.
Fears of high spending on AI are leading to another pullback in the market’s biggest names. The Mag 7 stocks are collectively 10% off their peak, and now in correction territory.
February 12, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Private education and health services accounted for the bulk of job creation over the past year.
Over the last twelve months, that category added roughly 780,000 positions. Excluding those gains, the economy shed approximately 350,000 jobs.
Manufacturing, the purported object of Trump’s tariff strategy, declined by about 100,000 in 2025. Transportation and warehousing fell by more than 100,000. Professional and business services contracted. Information and financial activities declined.
Federal employment dropped again in January, down 42,000. The civilian federal workforce now sits roughly 11% below its October 2024 peak.
February 12, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Most investors are familiar with the price-to-earnings, or PE, ratio. But what if you invert that, and divide earnings by price? You get what’s called the “earnings yield.”
Earnings yield on the S&P 500 is near a 100-year low.
February 11, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
Moody’s Mark Zandi urged restraint. “I wouldn’t exhale,” he wrote. The data coming out of the Bureau of (be)Labor(ed) Statistics (BLS) is still undergoing an overhaul from years of wonky miscalculations.
Downward revisions erased much of last year’s gains. Since April, aggregate job growth has barely moved.
Over the past twelve months, private education and health services added roughly 780,000 jobs. Remove those gains, and the broader economy shed about 350,000 positions.