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Beneath the Surface

Breaking down the fiscal train-wreck of 2024

Loading ...James Hickman

January 11, 2025 • 2 minute, 49 second read


debtdebt bubbleGovernment Spending

Breaking down the fiscal train-wreck of 2024

~~James Hickman, Schiff-Sovereign

 

In the calendar year of 2024, the government racked up a $1.74 trillion deficit.

But the national debt actually increased by an even higher $2.23 trillion from January 1, 2024 through December 31, 2024.

That’s a lot of money spent for a Congress that never even passed a budget!

The entire year, Congress relied on continuing resolutions to fund government operations. And most of these hinged around political battles that almost caused government shutdowns each time.

And both of these factors—the actual numbers and the dysfunction— threaten the status of the dollar as the global reserve currency.

The actual spending included things like $12 million for a Las Vegas Pickleball Complex, and $15 million the nearly bankrupt Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation spent on furniture for largely empty offices that federal employees refuse to report to.

But these, though ridiculous, are sadly miniscule expenditures to the US government.

It spent a total of $10 BILLION maintaining, leasing, and furnishing those almost entirely empty federal office buildings.

$6 billion disappeared in Ukraine, adding to the $65 billion total since 2022.

$88 BILLION went to brand new Navy vessels that quickly developed broken hulls, grinding transmissions, leaks, broken mission modules, and failed communications encryption.

The federal government also spent $236 BILLION making improper payments to the wrong people through Medicaid, unemployment insurance, and tax credits.

A billion here, 200 billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking about real money.

And again, the actual debt and deficit numbers themselves are bad enough to risk the status of the dollar. But the embarrassing failures and absurd priorities erode another important aspect of the dollar’s status: trust and confidence.

For example, a 2024 Inspector General report found that at LEAST $293 million worth of foreign aid was given to the Taliban, because there were no efforts to ensure Afghanistan-based NGOs (non-governmental organizations) received the money as intended.

This is sadly a drop in the bucket. But the fact that the US is literally handing its sworn enemy cash— in addition to the guns and equipment it left behind in Afghanistan— is a shameful embarrassment.

As if the government wasn’t $36 trillion in debt.

A serious government would cut everywhere it could. Instead:

  • A $2 million grant from Health and Human Services (HHS) funded a study on kids looking at Facebook ads about food.
  • HHS also spent $419,470 to find out that lonely rats are more likely than happy rats to do cocaine.
  • The US government took on more debt to spend $3 Million for ‘Girl-Centered Climate Action’ in Brazil.
  • Taxpayers paid $873,584 to fund movies in Jordan.
  • $2.1 million was spent on border security. Unfortunately for US taxpayers, it was to secure Paraguay’s border.

I mean sure, every deficit dollar brings America closer to losing the global reserve currency, but at least the Bearded Ladies Cabaret got a $10,000 grant for their climate change focused ice skating show.

The incoming administration has made it a priority to turn this around, eliminate waste, and strengthen the dollar’s position.

They certainly seem to be serious, and have a great team on their side.

And with so many idiotic expenditures, it’s pretty obvious where to start. Just stop spending on stupid things, and America will be heading in the right direction.

But the scale and scope of that idiocy is staggering. If they don’t manage to turn it around, you will be happy you had a Plan B.

To your freedom,

James Hickman
Co-Founder, Schiff Sovereign LLC


Seven Grey Swans, One Investment Strategy

January 5, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The entire process of reviewing forecasts and then issuing new ones has made us more intensely focused on our purpose. We’re not actually trying to “predict the future” to parody the disdain with which so many lazy media pundits would dismiss our approach.

Rather, we’re examining trends in the news cycle and trying to separate the wheat from the chaff. What signals are coming through stronger than the nauseating cacophony of  Washington and Wall Street, amplified by legacy and social media alike?

There are years when markets feel confusing because they are volatile. And there are years when they feel confused because the old explanations no longer work.

Seven Grey Swans, One Investment Strategy
Debt Hangover? Nah…

January 5, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

To start the year, the U.S. government didn’t bother with a hangover, rather it continues to spend so profligately that if we compared it to a drunken sailor, we’d have to apologize to the sailor.

Closing out 2025, America managed to rack up over $38 trillion in “official” debt. Looking at debt relative to GDP, it’s back over 121%.

Debt Hangover? Nah…
Grey Swan #1: The Age of Intelligence: Rise of the Network State

January 2, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The Grey Swan is not the invention of artificial intelligence. It is the moment the public understands that incentives have changed.

Network economics reward different behaviors than factory economics. Platform states operate by different rules than welfare states. Coordination outruns legislation. Culture lags technology. Conflict follows the gap.

In Financial Reckoning Day, we described how systems adapt when fiscal choices narrow. The Age of Intelligence represents that adaptation in software and silicon.

By the end of 2026, most people will recognize that machines now think alongside humans in logistics, finance, and planning. Some jobs disappear. Others appear. Output improves faster than consensus expects. Politics argues. Markets enforce discipline.

Grey Swan #1: The Age of Intelligence: Rise of the Network State
Grey Swan #2: The Crack-Up Boom Reaches Terminal Velocity

January 1, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The crack-up boom does not signal immediate collapse. Monetary policy gets a new master… inflation rages… and investors chase stocks as a means of keeping pace with their savings.

Markets may even finish 2026 higher than they begin. Many investors will still lose purchasing power along the way. Terminal velocity will feel like momentum… until reality hits.

In 2026, expect breathtaking advances, with the AI narrative remaining dominant, and sudden reversals to occur quickly. Expect liquidity to remain plentiful and erode discipline even more.

Grey Swan #2: The Crack-Up Boom Reaches Terminal Velocity