Beneath the Surface
Breaking down the fiscal train-wreck of 2024
January 11, 2025 • 2 minute, 49 second read

~~James Hickman, Schiff-Sovereign
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January 11, 2025 • 2 minute, 49 second read

~~James Hickman, Schiff-Sovereign
January 5, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The entire process of reviewing forecasts and then issuing new ones has made us more intensely focused on our purpose. We’re not actually trying to “predict the future” to parody the disdain with which so many lazy media pundits would dismiss our approach.
Rather, we’re examining trends in the news cycle and trying to separate the wheat from the chaff. What signals are coming through stronger than the nauseating cacophony of Washington and Wall Street, amplified by legacy and social media alike?
There are years when markets feel confusing because they are volatile. And there are years when they feel confused because the old explanations no longer work.
January 5, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
To start the year, the U.S. government didn’t bother with a hangover, rather it continues to spend so profligately that if we compared it to a drunken sailor, we’d have to apologize to the sailor.
Closing out 2025, America managed to rack up over $38 trillion in “official” debt. Looking at debt relative to GDP, it’s back over 121%.
January 2, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The Grey Swan is not the invention of artificial intelligence. It is the moment the public understands that incentives have changed.
Network economics reward different behaviors than factory economics. Platform states operate by different rules than welfare states. Coordination outruns legislation. Culture lags technology. Conflict follows the gap.
In Financial Reckoning Day, we described how systems adapt when fiscal choices narrow. The Age of Intelligence represents that adaptation in software and silicon.
By the end of 2026, most people will recognize that machines now think alongside humans in logistics, finance, and planning. Some jobs disappear. Others appear. Output improves faster than consensus expects. Politics argues. Markets enforce discipline.
January 1, 2026 • Addison Wiggin
The crack-up boom does not signal immediate collapse. Monetary policy gets a new master… inflation rages… and investors chase stocks as a means of keeping pace with their savings.
Markets may even finish 2026 higher than they begin. Many investors will still lose purchasing power along the way. Terminal velocity will feel like momentum… until reality hits.
In 2026, expect breathtaking advances, with the AI narrative remaining dominant, and sudden reversals to occur quickly. Expect liquidity to remain plentiful and erode discipline even more.