Daily Missive
Breaking down the fiscal train-wreck of 2024
January 11, 2025 • 2 minute, 49 second read

~~James Hickman, Schiff-Sovereign
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January 11, 2025 • 2 minute, 49 second read
~~James Hickman, Schiff-Sovereign
September 10, 2025 • John Rubino
In just the past five years, nearly a trillion dollars have been thrown at AI data centers, chip plants, and model training. And the spending curve continues to steepen, as pretty much every tech firm and most governments enter the AI arms race.
Early AIs improved in line with the amount of computing power and new data they were fed. This led to the assumption that AI investment had a predictable rate of return (which investors absolutely love).
But with the most recent iterations of name-brand AI, that relationship has broken down. They’re not improving in line with the money being spent on them, leading a growing number of analysts to voice doubt about whether the return on this investment can be predicted going forward. This is known as the “scaling cliff.”
September 10, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
the BLS claims the healthcare and social assistance sector added +58,000 jobs per month over the past three months.
Meanwhile, ADP shows the same sector losing an average of -33,300 jobs per month. That’s a 91,300 job gap — after years when the two data services have tracked closely.
Worse, the Labor Department just revised down -911,000 jobs from the past 12 months — the largest revision in U.S. history, bigger even than 2009.
Private hiring was overstated by -880,000 jobs.
Trade, transport, leisure, hospitality — all quietly cut back. Excluding healthcare, the U.S. economy has actually lost 142,200 jobs over the past four months.
The revisions are so large they now rival the global financial crisis.
If June’s downward revision of -27,000 is counted, that’s -285,000 over two months, the worst outside of 2020.
September 10, 2025 • Addison Wiggin
The housing market has been effectively frozen for three years.
That’s because, following record-low interest rates, homeowners refinanced with mortgages under 3%. Today, standing over 6%, the same home would have more than double the amount of interest each month.
Unsurprisingly, then, home prices have started to weaken as rates have remained high.
September 9, 2025 • Lau Vegys
Every 50% tariff WILL make dollar alternatives more attractive.
Every threat WILL push BRICS members closer together.
Every sanctions regime WILL prove why they need payment systems that don’t run through New York.
You can take that to the bank.
The irony is that Trump’s sarcastic quips about “losing” India and Russia to China are starting to look less like jokes and more like forecasts. Treat countries like enemies long enough, and eventually they’ll start acting like it.