A Low-Stress Start to the Year

Stress levels in the bond market have reached an all-time low:

Turn Your Images On

The U.S. high yield bond market shows record-low levels of stress (Source: The Daily Shot)

Even with Japanese bonds signaling a finance crisis in global debt… investors in the U.S. “junk bond” market are still making big bets.

The High Yield Bond Distress Index measures levels in the junk bond market, including liquidity, market functionality, and how easily companies can borrow.

A reading this low signals extremely healthy borrowing conditions for high-yield issuers. It’s also where we would look for distress in the corporate AI build out debt issuance.

And if the high yield bond market isn’t worried yet, stock market pullbacks are likely to be short and shallow – and will likely play a role in a midyear “crack-up boom.”

In 2026, we’re still tracking the “Most Terrifying Bull” thesis – the idea that stocks rally on liquidity and capital gains rather than earrings and dividend payouts.

~ Addison

P.S. Grey Swan Live! returns from its holiday hiatus this afternoon at 2 P.M. ET. Our guest this week will be Matt Smith, publisher at Casey Research. Matt and co-author Doug Casey have just released a new book titled “The Preparation.”

Quick hit: Since 2021, Matt has been operating a “regenerative” cattle ranch in Uruguay. The Preparation has some very strong opinions on the value of Western education and how to prepare the next generation to participate in a strong, thriving economy.

Turn Your Images On

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Stress levels in the bond market have reached an all-time low:

Turn Your Images On

The U.S. high yield bond market shows record-low levels of stress (Source: The Daily Shot)

Even with Japanese bonds signaling a finance crisis in global debt… investors in the U.S. “junk bond” market are still making big bets.

The High Yield Bond Distress Index measures levels in the junk bond market, including liquidity, market functionality, and how easily companies can borrow.

A reading this low signals extremely healthy borrowing conditions for high-yield issuers. It’s also where we would look for distress in the corporate AI build out debt issuance.

And if the high yield bond market isn’t worried yet, stock market pullbacks are likely to be short and shallow – and will likely play a role in a midyear “crack-up boom.”

In 2026, we’re still tracking the “Most Terrifying Bull” thesis – the idea that stocks rally on liquidity and capital gains rather than earrings and dividend payouts.

~ Addison

Turn Your Images On

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time. That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!