Bonfire in Timber (Prices)!

Prices for physical lumber have now slumped to their lowest level of 2025:

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Timber, a key commodity to determine the health of the economy, slumps lower. (Source: Barchart)

Timber is among several commodities declining this year. Oil, down 15%. Wheat minus 10%. Egg prices have gotten over the avian flu and are down 80%.

Lower commodity costs are good for consumers. They offset tariff costs to wholesalers. And they are good for this year’s political pet issue, “affordability.”

But they also reflect a sore spot in the overall economy. Lower demand for timber, a key component in housing, means builders aren’t building.

Many economists interpret lower timber prices as a sign that the economy is already in recession.

But there’s another factor to consider. The housing market remains frozen, with existing homeowners with 3% mortgage rates sitting tight – and keeping prices high. And for the first time in US history, the average age of first-time homebuyers is above 40.

~ Addison

P.S. Tomorrow, we’ll review the pullback in bitcoin and stablecoin stocks. And how the correction fits into our “Dollar 2.0” thesis on Grey Swan Live! with Mark Jeftovic and Ian King.

Since the October 21st Payments Innovation Conference hosted by the Fed, the regulatory environment has continued apace, despite the government shutdown, the SEC, IRS and CFTC have all updated guidance.

Even bitcoin and crypto bulls will tell you that a sound regulatory environment is good for the digital asset space. The Treasury under the Trump administration is counting on stablecoins to mature enough that the U.S. dollar preserves its reserve currency status in the burgeoning digital economy.

If you’re new to the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity, you’re going to want to join us Thursday, November 19, 2025 at 2pm EST/11am PST as we get into the weeds a little and identify opportunities opening up quickly.

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Then on Friday, November 20, 2025 at 2pm EST/11am PSTwe’ve invited our friends at Prime Financial Services back to help you with tax planning for your investment portfolio ahead of the holiday season and closing out the trading year 2025.

Prime’s Nick Buhelos will join us again to make sure you maximize your investment returns – by walking you through the correct financial structure you need totake advantage of explicit IRS business rules that apply to individual investors.

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If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Prices for physical lumber have now slumped to their lowest level of 2025:

Turn Your Images On

Timber, a key commodity to determine the health of the economy, slumps lower. (Source: Barchart)

Timber is among several commodities declining this year. Oil, down 15%. Wheat minus 10%. Egg prices have gotten over the avian flu and are down 80%.

Lower commodity costs are good for consumers. They offset tariff costs to wholesalers. And they are good for this year’s political pet issue, “affordability.”

But they also reflect a sore spot in the overall economy. Lower demand for timber, a key component in housing, means builders aren’t building.

Many economists interpret lower timber prices as a sign that the economy is already in recession.

~ Addison

P.S. Tomorrow, we’ll review the pullback in bitcoin and stablecoin stocks. And how the correction fits into our “Dollar 2.0” thesis on Grey Swan Live! with Mark Jeftovic and Ian King.

Turn Your Images On

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Mining stocks amplify everything. First Majestic went from losing money to 45% margins without building anything new. They just held the line on costs while silver did the heavy lifting.

That cuts both ways. If silver drops hard, margins compress just as fast. Same leverage, opposite direction.

The miners with the lowest costs and cleanest balance sheets will hold up best in a pullback and capture the most upside if the deficit keeps grinding.

Economists at Goldman Sachs said this morning they expect core inflation to finish the year around 2% even while GDP rises at a “surprisingly strong” 2.5% clip.

In our view, their inflation forecast is optimistic. Their GDP call? Modest.

The last time we pumped this much liquidity into the system — 2020 through 2022—the result was a manic asset bubble, runaway inflation, and an epic hangover at the Fed.

Goldman’s optimism has triggered a fresh round of bullish bets: cyclical stocks are rallying, “dispersion” in the S&P 500 is spiking, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice before Jerome Powell gets kicked out of Washington at the end of his term on May 15.

Anecdotally, we’re hearing stories of warehouses full of GPUs sitting unused for lack of energy to power them. It’s a natural feature of the heavy capital investment in new machines. The grid has to catch up!

While Trump’s great reset rolls on in 2026, keep an eye on modular nuclear reactors and increased demand for uranium, natural gas and related resources.

These PM producers are literally printing the most ‘hard money’ that they ever have at these metals prices and record margins here at the midway point in Q4.

If there ever was a time for this sector to get overheated and frothy, this would be it… only that isn’t what we’ve seen playing out.

PM producers are still insanely profitable at even at current metals prices and should be far more valuable based on their margins, revenue generating potential, and their resources still in the ground.