Bonfire in Timber (Prices)!

Prices for physical lumber have now slumped to their lowest level of 2025:

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Timber, a key commodity to determine the health of the economy, slumps lower. (Source: Barchart)

Timber is among several commodities declining this year. Oil, down 15%. Wheat minus 10%. Egg prices have gotten over the avian flu and are down 80%.

Lower commodity costs are good for consumers. They offset tariff costs to wholesalers. And they are good for this year’s political pet issue, “affordability.”

But they also reflect a sore spot in the overall economy. Lower demand for timber, a key component in housing, means builders aren’t building.

Many economists interpret lower timber prices as a sign that the economy is already in recession.

But there’s another factor to consider. The housing market remains frozen, with existing homeowners with 3% mortgage rates sitting tight – and keeping prices high. And for the first time in US history, the average age of first-time homebuyers is above 40.

~ Addison

P.S. Tomorrow, we’ll review the pullback in bitcoin and stablecoin stocks. And how the correction fits into our “Dollar 2.0” thesis on Grey Swan Live! with Mark Jeftovic and Ian King.

Since the October 21st Payments Innovation Conference hosted by the Fed, the regulatory environment has continued apace, despite the government shutdown, the SEC, IRS and CFTC have all updated guidance.

Even bitcoin and crypto bulls will tell you that a sound regulatory environment is good for the digital asset space. The Treasury under the Trump administration is counting on stablecoins to mature enough that the U.S. dollar preserves its reserve currency status in the burgeoning digital economy.

If you’re new to the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity, you’re going to want to join us Thursday, November 19, 2025 at 2pm EST/11am PST as we get into the weeds a little and identify opportunities opening up quickly.

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Then on Friday, November 20, 2025 at 2pm EST/11am PSTwe’ve invited our friends at Prime Financial Services back to help you with tax planning for your investment portfolio ahead of the holiday season and closing out the trading year 2025.

Prime’s Nick Buhelos will join us again to make sure you maximize your investment returns – by walking you through the correct financial structure you need totake advantage of explicit IRS business rules that apply to individual investors.

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If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Prices for physical lumber have now slumped to their lowest level of 2025:

Turn Your Images On

Timber, a key commodity to determine the health of the economy, slumps lower. (Source: Barchart)

Timber is among several commodities declining this year. Oil, down 15%. Wheat minus 10%. Egg prices have gotten over the avian flu and are down 80%.

Lower commodity costs are good for consumers. They offset tariff costs to wholesalers. And they are good for this year’s political pet issue, “affordability.”

But they also reflect a sore spot in the overall economy. Lower demand for timber, a key component in housing, means builders aren’t building.

Many economists interpret lower timber prices as a sign that the economy is already in recession.

~ Addison

P.S. Tomorrow, we’ll review the pullback in bitcoin and stablecoin stocks. And how the correction fits into our “Dollar 2.0” thesis on Grey Swan Live! with Mark Jeftovic and Ian King.

Turn Your Images On

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Our forecast will feel obvious in hindsight and controversial in advance — the hallmark of a Grey Swan.

Most analysts we speak to are thinking in terms of the history of Western conflict.

They expect full-frontal military engagement.

Beijing, from our modest perch, prefers resolution because resolution compounds its power. Why sacrifice the workshop of the world, when cajoling and bribery will do?

Taiwan will not fall.

It will merge.

Wars, technology races, and political upheavals — all of them rest on fiscal capacity.

In 2026, that capacity will tighten across the developed world simultaneously. Democracies will discover that generosity financed by debt carries conditions, whether voters approve of them or not.

Bond markets will not shout so much as clear their throats. Repeatedly.

Taken together, the seven Grey Swans of 2025 behaved less like isolated events and more like interlocking stories readers already recognize.

The year moved in phases. A sharp April selloff cleared leverage quickly. Policy shifted toward tax relief, lighter regulation, and renewed tolerance for liquidity. Innovations began to slowly dominate the marketplace conversation – from Dollar 2.0 digital assets to AI-powered applications in all manner of commercial enterprises, ranging from airline and hotel bookings to driverless taxis and robots.

Back in April, when we published what we called the Trump Great Reset Strategy, we described the grand realignment we believed President Trump and his acolytes were embarking on in three phases.

At the time, it read like a conceptual map. As the months passed, it began to feel like a set of operating instructions written in advance of turbulence.

As you can expect, any grandiose plan would get all kinds of blowback… but this year exhibited all manner of Trump Derangement Syndrome on top of the difficulty of steering a sclerotic empire clear of the rocky shores.

The “phases” were never about optimism or pessimism. They were about sequencing — how stress surfaces, how systems adapt, and what must hold before confidence can regenerate. And in the end, what do we do with our money?!

Our forecast will feel obvious in hindsight and controversial in advance — the hallmark of a Grey Swan.

Most analysts we speak to are thinking in terms of the history of Western conflict.

They expect full-frontal military engagement.

Beijing, from our modest perch, prefers resolution because resolution compounds its power. Why sacrifice the workshop of the world, when cajoling and bribery will do?

Taiwan will not fall.

It will merge.

Wars, technology races, and political upheavals — all of them rest on fiscal capacity.

In 2026, that capacity will tighten across the developed world simultaneously. Democracies will discover that generosity financed by debt carries conditions, whether voters approve of them or not.

Bond markets will not shout so much as clear their throats. Repeatedly.

Taken together, the seven Grey Swans of 2025 behaved less like isolated events and more like interlocking stories readers already recognize.

Back in April, when we published what we called the Trump Great Reset Strategy, we described the grand realignment we believed President Trump and his acolytes were embarking on in three phases.

At the time, it read like a conceptual map. As the months passed, it began to feel like a set of operating instructions written in advance of turbulence.