Bonfire in Timber (Prices)!

Prices for physical lumber have now slumped to their lowest level of 2025:

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Timber, a key commodity to determine the health of the economy, slumps lower. (Source: Barchart)

Timber is among several commodities declining this year. Oil, down 15%. Wheat minus 10%. Egg prices have gotten over the avian flu and are down 80%.

Lower commodity costs are good for consumers. They offset tariff costs to wholesalers. And they are good for this year’s political pet issue, “affordability.”

But they also reflect a sore spot in the overall economy. Lower demand for timber, a key component in housing, means builders aren’t building.

Many economists interpret lower timber prices as a sign that the economy is already in recession.

But there’s another factor to consider. The housing market remains frozen, with existing homeowners with 3% mortgage rates sitting tight – and keeping prices high. And for the first time in US history, the average age of first-time homebuyers is above 40.

~ Addison

P.S. Tomorrow, we’ll review the pullback in bitcoin and stablecoin stocks. And how the correction fits into our “Dollar 2.0” thesis on Grey Swan Live! with Mark Jeftovic and Ian King.

Since the October 21st Payments Innovation Conference hosted by the Fed, the regulatory environment has continued apace, despite the government shutdown, the SEC, IRS and CFTC have all updated guidance.

Even bitcoin and crypto bulls will tell you that a sound regulatory environment is good for the digital asset space. The Treasury under the Trump administration is counting on stablecoins to mature enough that the U.S. dollar preserves its reserve currency status in the burgeoning digital economy.

If you’re new to the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity, you’re going to want to join us Thursday, November 19, 2025 at 2pm EST/11am PST as we get into the weeds a little and identify opportunities opening up quickly.

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Then on Friday, November 20, 2025 at 2pm EST/11am PSTwe’ve invited our friends at Prime Financial Services back to help you with tax planning for your investment portfolio ahead of the holiday season and closing out the trading year 2025.

Prime’s Nick Buhelos will join us again to make sure you maximize your investment returns – by walking you through the correct financial structure you need totake advantage of explicit IRS business rules that apply to individual investors.

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If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Prices for physical lumber have now slumped to their lowest level of 2025:

Turn Your Images On

Timber, a key commodity to determine the health of the economy, slumps lower. (Source: Barchart)

Timber is among several commodities declining this year. Oil, down 15%. Wheat minus 10%. Egg prices have gotten over the avian flu and are down 80%.

Lower commodity costs are good for consumers. They offset tariff costs to wholesalers. And they are good for this year’s political pet issue, “affordability.”

But they also reflect a sore spot in the overall economy. Lower demand for timber, a key component in housing, means builders aren’t building.

Many economists interpret lower timber prices as a sign that the economy is already in recession.

~ Addison

P.S. Tomorrow, we’ll review the pullback in bitcoin and stablecoin stocks. And how the correction fits into our “Dollar 2.0” thesis on Grey Swan Live! with Mark Jeftovic and Ian King.

Turn Your Images On

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time. That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!