Bitcoin’s Looking Great. Gold Not So Much.

A Tale of Two Assets. Plus an update on gold miners.

Today, we are going to look at gold, bitcoin, and our way of playing it, MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), which has now 10xd (!) since we first covered it last year. Amazing.Finally, there’ll be a short update on gold miners. Remember them?

Let’s start with gold.

Gold – and most other metals – has been hit since the U.S. election last week. It’s down $200, or about 7%, with U.S. dollar strength being a big factor (the dollar has been storming higher since October).

While I think this bull market might be punctured, as I put it last week, and that gold probably has a bit further to fall, I am not unduly worried. 2024 has hitherto been a great year for gold, and it remains an essential long-term core holding.

It is an even more essential holding for UK investors. I think sterling has big problems ahead of it, and gold serves as your hedge against crap governments.

Labour or Tory – I’m no fan of either.

They’re both as bad as each other, in my view. The less government there is, the better things run. But that’s irrelevant idealism. Of greater concern here is reality: there has never been a Labour Government that did not devalue sterling.

· Blair and Brown crashed sterling in 2007-8 (though until then their record was okay);

· Under Wilson, Callaghan, and Healey, we ended up going to the IMF in 1976. Callaghan and Wilson also devalued in 1967.

· Cripps and Attlee devalued in 1949.

· Ramsay MacDonald’s National Government, which followed Labour from 1929-31, took us off the gold standard in 1931.

Why should this Labour Government be any different? If anything, it is even less competent. Sterling devaluation is coming. How exactly might not yet be clear. I rather suspect it’ll be an attempt to make us competitive against an ultra-streamlined US, but that’s just a guess. You must own some gold (and some bitcoin) in such an environment: non-government money.

Bitcoin’s Looking Great. Gold Not So Much.

A Tale of Two Assets. Plus an update on gold miners.

Let’s start with gold.

It is an even more essential holding for UK investors. I think sterling has big problems ahead of it, and gold serves as your hedge against crap governments.

Labour or Tory – I’m no fan of either.

· Blair and Brown crashed sterling in 2007-8 (though until then their record was okay);

· Under Wilson, Callaghan, and Healey, we ended up going to the IMF in 1976. Callaghan and Wilson also devalued in 1967.

· Cripps and Attlee devalued in 1949.

· Ramsay MacDonald’s National Government, which followed Labour from 1929-31, took us off the gold standard in 1931.

In a healthy economy, production and consumption communicate constantly. If a company builds something useful, customers respond by buying it. If they overbuild, inventories pile up and prices fall, sending a signal to slow down.

AI infrastructure, by contrast, is being built largely on faith. Companies are scaling up compute power without clear signs of sustainable demand. Unlike oil and gas, where prices adjust second-by-second, AI companies operate in a fog. They release tools, collect usage stats, and hope that paid conversions will follow.

But hope is not a business model.

Six months ago — before the GENIUS Act was signed and before Washington put a nameplate on what had already begun — we were describing a slow rewiring of money.

For better or worse, we called it Dollar 2.0: the quiet migration of finance from paper promises and batch settlement to tokens, smart contracts, and ledgers that never sleep.

The name Dollar 2.0 is derived from the way Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been touting the stablecoin environment’s promise to create a larger global market for U.S. dollars and Treasurys.

The last 30 days have seen sharks (those with 100-1,000 BTC) and whales (1,000 BTC+) pick up over $23.3 billion in bitcoin.

If our Dollar 2.0 thesis is correct, it’s not actually easy to see why.

What’s seen: Congress passed laws to support stablecoin technology in time for America’s 250th anniversary next July.

What’s not seen: a 216-hour series of technical moves from November 22 to December 2, during which BlackRock, Vanguard, and Bank of America flipped switches that “captured” bitcoin into institutional-grade wrappers and distribution. JPMorgan followed up with a tokenized money market fund called MONEY on December 15.

The dollar-centric system and its bubbles may have given the U.S. economy a form of Dutch disease. This system has many rarely debated costs that go along with its benefits.

Deficit spending and stimulus inflated prices for stocks, real estate, and consumer goods. Trillions in savings remain in accounts from stimulus bills.

Without this spending, prices would be lower, a point lost on the Biden administration’s hyper-Keynesian economists, who never met a spending bill they did not cheer.