Another Sign the Blow-Off Top Is Coming

Chipmaker Nvidia is up over 500% in the past five years. Its market cap, closing in on $5 trillion, boggles the mind. That’s just one reason why it reminds one of Cisco during the dotcom bubble.

Yet, shares trade at 50 times earnings — pricey even for a growth stock — but nowhere near the 500 times earnings of Palantir.

In 2020, you could have bought shares of Nvidia at 50 times earnings. And in 2025. The fact of the matter is, Nvidia’s valuation has held fairly steady – with its share price soaring as its earnings soar.

That’s also a big drive for the massive rally in the S&P 500:

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There’ s still more room for stocks to run as prices haven’t yet exceeded earnings growth (Source: Carson)

If history continues to rhyme, we expect a final parabolic move higher to be in the works for the stock market. One that may kick off near the end of the year and move into 2026.

That final push higher will finally see a divergence – with soaring stock prices amid a backdrop of slowing – or even evaporating – earnings.

When that happens, retail investors who would usually be cautious on stocks may throw that caution to the wind, just as cautious investors in 1997 and 1998 joined the relentless bull market mentality in 1999 – and the playout of our forecast for a terrifying bull.

~ Addison

P.S. Exuberance for AI has forced a massive concentration in a historically few stocks such as Nvidia. Fortunately, there are pockets of extreme value elsewhere in the market.

That includes materials, commodities, mining and energy stocks, as the Trump administration pushes for a stronger industrial policy and more domestic production.

Gold, jumping to $3,850 this morning, will likely catch retail interest as central banks push prices higher and the Trump administration forces monetary changes. Our forecast for significantly higher gold prices continues to move in the right direction, and can play out even as the AI bubble meets its inevitable pin.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Chipmaker Nvidia is up over 500% in the past five years. Its market cap, closing in on $5 trillion, boggles the mind. That’s just one reason why it reminds one of Cisco during the dotcom bubble.

Yet, shares trade at 50 times earnings — pricey even for a growth stock — but nowhere near the 500 times earnings of Palantir.

That’s also a big drive for the massive rally in the S&P 500:

Turn Your Images On

There’ s still more room for stocks to run as prices haven’t yet exceeded earnings growth (Source: Carson)

If history continues to rhyme, we expect a final parabolic move higher to be in the works for the stock market. One that may kick off near the end of the year and move into 2026.

That final push higher will finally see a divergence – with soaring stock prices amid a backdrop of slowing – or even evaporating – earnings.

~ Addison

P.S. Exuberance for AI has forced a massive concentration in a historically few stocks such as Nvidia. Fortunately, there are pockets of extreme value elsewhere in the market.

That includes materials, commodities, mining and energy stocks, as the Trump administration pushes for a stronger industrial policy and more domestic production.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Let’s peel back the layers of this precious metals bull market by analyzing the pricing action on the charts, which contains ALL the buying and selling.

Most people love a good narrative, and they use these stories to either reinforce their biased views or to explain away price action that they don’t agree with.

They are just stories, though, even if there are elements of truth embedded within them. We can utilize charts to remove this biased narrative and noise.

Over the longer term, the pricing that populates charts truly incorporates the total buying and selling from all central banks, financial institutions, ETFs, hedge funds, whale investors, and the rest of the retail investors.

Yesterday’s CPI showed prices still ticking up—2.7% year-over-year, right in line with expectations.

Wall Street expects at least two rate cuts in 2026. At the same time, global central banks — led by China and Russia — continue buying gold to reduce their reliance on the dollar. Combine this with supply chain reshoring and increasing geopolitical tensions, and metals have emerged as both a hedge and a haven.

Between a precious metals rally catching the attention of outlets as lilywhite as Bloomberg and the Trump administration’s 2026 focus on critical minerals and domestic production, there’s a lot to unearth in the natural resource sector.

Today’s chart of inflation reflects an eerily similar path to the 1970s. The last CPI reading ticked back up 2.7%. If prices today continue to track those of the 1970s, the next wave of inflation could see prices rise higher and faster than during the 2021/2022 bout.

Yesterday, gold notched another new record high of $4647. Its slimmer, svelte cousin, silver, set a new historic high of $92. Both monetary metals are reflecting the market fear that once inflation gets started, it’s very difficult to contain.

Sunday night, Powell addressed the probe head-on in a video post — a rarity. He accused the White House of using cost overruns in the Fed’s HQ renovation as a pretext for political interference.

The White House denied involvement. But few in Washington believed it.