Another Sign the Blow-Off Top Is Coming

Chipmaker Nvidia is up over 500% in the past five years. Its market cap, closing in on $5 trillion, boggles the mind. That’s just one reason why it reminds one of Cisco during the dotcom bubble.

Yet, shares trade at 50 times earnings — pricey even for a growth stock — but nowhere near the 500 times earnings of Palantir.

In 2020, you could have bought shares of Nvidia at 50 times earnings. And in 2025. The fact of the matter is, Nvidia’s valuation has held fairly steady – with its share price soaring as its earnings soar.

That’s also a big drive for the massive rally in the S&P 500:

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There’ s still more room for stocks to run as prices haven’t yet exceeded earnings growth (Source: Carson)

If history continues to rhyme, we expect a final parabolic move higher to be in the works for the stock market. One that may kick off near the end of the year and move into 2026.

That final push higher will finally see a divergence – with soaring stock prices amid a backdrop of slowing – or even evaporating – earnings.

When that happens, retail investors who would usually be cautious on stocks may throw that caution to the wind, just as cautious investors in 1997 and 1998 joined the relentless bull market mentality in 1999 – and the playout of our forecast for a terrifying bull.

~ Addison

P.S. Exuberance for AI has forced a massive concentration in a historically few stocks such as Nvidia. Fortunately, there are pockets of extreme value elsewhere in the market.

That includes materials, commodities, mining and energy stocks, as the Trump administration pushes for a stronger industrial policy and more domestic production.

Gold, jumping to $3,850 this morning, will likely catch retail interest as central banks push prices higher and the Trump administration forces monetary changes. Our forecast for significantly higher gold prices continues to move in the right direction, and can play out even as the AI bubble meets its inevitable pin.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Chipmaker Nvidia is up over 500% in the past five years. Its market cap, closing in on $5 trillion, boggles the mind. That’s just one reason why it reminds one of Cisco during the dotcom bubble.

Yet, shares trade at 50 times earnings — pricey even for a growth stock — but nowhere near the 500 times earnings of Palantir.

That’s also a big drive for the massive rally in the S&P 500:

Turn Your Images On

There’ s still more room for stocks to run as prices haven’t yet exceeded earnings growth (Source: Carson)

If history continues to rhyme, we expect a final parabolic move higher to be in the works for the stock market. One that may kick off near the end of the year and move into 2026.

That final push higher will finally see a divergence – with soaring stock prices amid a backdrop of slowing – or even evaporating – earnings.

~ Addison

P.S. Exuberance for AI has forced a massive concentration in a historically few stocks such as Nvidia. Fortunately, there are pockets of extreme value elsewhere in the market.

That includes materials, commodities, mining and energy stocks, as the Trump administration pushes for a stronger industrial policy and more domestic production.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Alternative assets like gold and bitcoin are trading off their highs right now, but rising levels of debt and an ongoing political impasse will likely mean much higher price moves for these assets in dollar terms.

U.S. government debt is edging closer to the $38 trillion mark — now well over 120% of GDP. That puts the U.S. in the same league as basket-case economies like Venezuela, Sudan, and Lebanon. Not exactly the kind of company you want to keep.

But it makes sense: history shows that once a country crosses this threshold, things start to break — and it’s rarely just one thing. I’ve talked a lot about that in the past.

An admission: we’re mildly obsessed with the private credit markets.

When there’s a bull market in everything — AI stocks, financials, rare earths, gold and silver — it helps to keep an eye on the plumbing.

One chart tells the tale: since 2015, bank loans to non-depository financial institutions (NDFIs) — think private equity and private-credit funds — have soared nearly 300%.

Consumer loans, residential mortgages, commercial real estate? Flat as Kansas. Post-2008, Basel III and Dodd-Frank made leveraged and middle-market lending so capital-intensive that banks stepped back.

Gold dropped nearly 2% yesterday. But with the massive increase in fiat currencies globally, that’s an opportunity to buy more cheaply.