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Ripple Effect

Another Bell Ringing

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

February 4, 2026 • 1 minute, 22 second read


Market TopMusk

Another Bell Ringing

You can bet on nearly anything on Polymarket. One bet is that Elon Musk, current net worth $775 billion, will add the other $225 billion and become the world’s first trillionaire.

Betting market odds now overwhelmingly see it happening this year:

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Elon Musk’s odds of becoming the world’s first trillionaire soar following the Spacex/xAI merger news. (Source: Polymarket)

The big jump occurred ahead of a potential IPO for SpaceX – which now has the twist of its merger with Musk’s xAI.

During the dotcom boom, the AOL/TimeWarner merger marked a near-perfect peak for tech stocks. AI investors should be wary about this merger and potential public IPO later this year.

But we’re not there yet! Still plenty of room for the crack-up to boom in this terrifying bull.

~ Addison

P.S.  Markets appear concerned about Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s pick for the next Fed Chair. Warsh is a sound money advocate who would like to see the central bank’s balance sheet reduced. A great goal, but it would also require a more austere fiscal policy.

That’s led to some whipsaw moves in gold and silver. Gold is back over $5,000 per ounce this morning. Silver has reclaimed $90. Bitcoin, in the meantime, has slid to a fresh one-year low.

We’ll be speaking with our crypto expert Mark Jeftovic on Grey Swan Live! tomorrow at a special time, 3 PM, to look at how events are unfolding and where the next opportunities are.

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If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!,  or have any questions for our guests, send them here.


Hedge Funds Crowd the “Sell America” Trade

February 10, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Funds net sold U.S. equities for a fourth straight week, at the fastest clip since the opening chapter of the Trump trade war on April 2, 2025.

Despite that positioning, the indexes pushed higher on Monday.

Dip buyers stepped in after last week’s slide and nudged indexes back toward their highs.
Chipmakers gained ground, and a software ETF tacked on close to 7% across two sessions, a quick counterpoint to the sector’s recent purge. Sameer Samana at Wells Fargo Investment Institute described the move as the market’s reflex after steep selloffs—fast hands cover, slower money watches.

Hedge Funds Crowd the “Sell America” Trade
Bitcoin Approaches Its Final Million

February 10, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Every ten minutes, the bitcoin network completes another block of transaction data. Another bitcoin miner seeks a reward.

The reward is cut in half every four years, thanks to the “halving protocol” which established the coin’s scarcity algorithm. Next month, total bitcoin supply will hit 20 million, leaving just 1 million left to be mined.

Bitcoin Approaches Its Final Million
Broad Market Rally Meet Narrowing Political Window

February 9, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The Nasdaq logged its fourth straight down week, pulled lower by the “SaaSpocalypse” in software.

Goldman Sachs’ Software Basket fell 16% for the week. Hedge fund exposure to software shrank sharply, according to Prime Book data.

Lou Miller, Goldman’s global head of Equity Custom Baskets, told clients that buyers remained scarce even as the group entered oversold territory.

In the late 1990s, telecom infrastructure outpaced demand, pricing compressed, and equity valuations adjusted long before usage caught up.

Today’s AI buildout carries healthier balance sheets and real utility, yet capital intensity remains high, and patience wears thin when returns depend on perfect adoption curves.

Broad Market Rally Meet Narrowing Political Window
Correlation Breakdown

February 9, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The week’s trading revealed that a rotation out of high-flying tech into defensive names is well underway. The Dow, which includes broader, non-tech-related stocks, is starting the week above 50,000 for the first time in its history.  

Correlation Breakdown