Another Bell Ringing

You can bet on nearly anything on Polymarket. One bet is that Elon Musk, current net worth $775 billion, will add the other $225 billion and become the world’s first trillionaire.

Betting market odds now overwhelmingly see it happening this year:

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Elon Musk’s odds of becoming the world’s first trillionaire soar following the Spacex/xAI merger news. (Source: Polymarket)

The big jump occurred ahead of a potential IPO for SpaceX – which now has the twist of its merger with Musk’s xAI.

During the dotcom boom, the AOL/TimeWarner merger marked a near-perfect peak for tech stocks. AI investors should be wary about this merger and potential public IPO later this year.

But we’re not there yet! Still plenty of room for the crack-up to boom in this terrifying bull.

~ Addison

P.S. Markets appear concerned about Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s pick for the next Fed Chair. Warsh is a sound money advocate who would like to see the central bank’s balance sheet reduced. A great goal, but it would also require a more austere fiscal policy.

That’s led to some whipsaw moves in gold and silver. Gold is back over $5,000 per ounce this morning. Silver has reclaimed $90. Bitcoin, in the meantime, has slid to a fresh one-year low.

We’ll be speaking with our crypto expert Mark Jeftovic on Grey Swan Live! tomorrow at a special time, 3 PM, to look at how events are unfolding and where the next opportunities are.

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If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

You can bet on nearly anything on Polymarket. One bet is that Elon Musk, current net worth $775 billion, will add the other $225 billion and become the world’s first trillionaire.

Betting market odds now overwhelmingly see it happening this year:

Turn Your Images On

Elon Musk’s odds of becoming the world’s first trillionaire soar following the Spacex/xAI merger news. (Source: Polymarket)

The big jump occurred ahead of a potential IPO for SpaceX – which now has the twist of its merger with Musk’s xAI.

During the dotcom boom, the AOL/TimeWarner merger marked a near-perfect peak for tech stocks. AI investors should be wary about this merger and potential public IPO later this year.

But we’re not there yet! Still plenty of room for the crack-up to boom in this terrifying bull.

~ Addison

That’s led to some whipsaw moves in gold and silver. Gold is back over $5,000 per ounce this morning. Silver has reclaimed $90. Bitcoin, in the meantime, has slid to a fresh one-year low.

We’ll be speaking with our crypto expert Mark Jeftovic on Grey Swan Live! tomorrow at a special time, 3 PM, to look at how events are unfolding and where the next opportunities are.

Turn Your Images On

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Copper and resources are sending us a cleaner market signal than AI stocks.

Channeling Ludwig von Mises, we observe this morning that price is not just a number; it’s information. Price reflects what buyers and sellers collectively believe: demand, scarcity, fear, speculation, disappointment, future expectations and available supply.

When prices rise, and inventories fall at the same time, the message is usually straightforward: buyers need the stuff, and there is not enough of it.

A low VIX does not predict disaster. It measures complacency. A serial skeptic will read it as the calm before a storm. We shook off that feeling this morning and opted to pursue an opportunity instead.

Here goes:

A VIX reading below 15 means the market is not pricing in much near-term trouble, even though there are obvious risks still sitting in the room: Iran, oil prices, memory chip speculation, circular financing, high valuations, epic high concentrations, spiking long-term interest rates, a regime change at the Fed, a meltdown in Japan and a historic deficit and rising national debt.

Money is not flowing in a clean, straight line from outside investors to productive businesses. The firms at the top are investing in and buying from each other.

Microsoft and OpenAI are the easiest examples to follow.

Microsoft says OpenAI has contracted to purchase an additional $250 billion in Azure services, while Microsoft continues to account for $13 billion in funding commitments to OpenAI as an investment.

At this stage, it’s a stock picker’s market.

We expect space, robotics and some more visible tech startups to remain sources of speculation. After weakness in the first half of 2026, we’re also due for a strong rotation of capital into natural resources, precious metals, critical minerals and energy.

Copper and resources are sending us a cleaner market signal than AI stocks.

When prices rise, and inventories fall at the same time, the message is usually straightforward: buyers need the stuff, and there is not enough of it.

Here goes:

Money is not flowing in a clean, straight line from outside investors to productive businesses. The firms at the top are investing in and buying from each other.

Microsoft and OpenAI are the easiest examples to follow.

Microsoft says OpenAI has contracted to purchase an additional $250 billion in Azure services, while Microsoft continues to account for $13 billion in funding commitments to OpenAI as an investment.

At this stage, it’s a stock picker’s market.