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Ripple Effect

Another Bell Ringing

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

February 4, 2026 • 1 minute, 22 second read


Market TopMusk

Another Bell Ringing

You can bet on nearly anything on Polymarket. One bet is that Elon Musk, current net worth $775 billion, will add the other $225 billion and become the world’s first trillionaire.

Betting market odds now overwhelmingly see it happening this year:

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Elon Musk’s odds of becoming the world’s first trillionaire soar following the Spacex/xAI merger news. (Source: Polymarket)

The big jump occurred ahead of a potential IPO for SpaceX – which now has the twist of its merger with Musk’s xAI.

During the dotcom boom, the AOL/TimeWarner merger marked a near-perfect peak for tech stocks. AI investors should be wary about this merger and potential public IPO later this year.

But we’re not there yet! Still plenty of room for the crack-up to boom in this terrifying bull.

~ Addison

P.S.  Markets appear concerned about Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s pick for the next Fed Chair. Warsh is a sound money advocate who would like to see the central bank’s balance sheet reduced. A great goal, but it would also require a more austere fiscal policy.

That’s led to some whipsaw moves in gold and silver. Gold is back over $5,000 per ounce this morning. Silver has reclaimed $90. Bitcoin, in the meantime, has slid to a fresh one-year low.

We’ll be speaking with our crypto expert Mark Jeftovic on Grey Swan Live! tomorrow at a special time, 3 PM, to look at how events are unfolding and where the next opportunities are.

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If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!,  or have any questions for our guests, send them here.


The Hindenburg Five

February 24, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The Hindenburg Five
Piercing The Veil

February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time.   That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Piercing The Veil
Oh. Canada

February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

Oh. Canada
Matt Milner: SpaceX + xAI: What It Means for You

February 20, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!

Matt Milner: SpaceX + xAI: What It Means for You