Andrew Zatlin: Time for an AI Pause?

Nvidia’s earnings report last night measured a new headwind blowing up against the big AI stocks.

Don’t panic.

At least, not yet.

Yes, growth is slowing down. What can you expect when you have 50% growth happening year over year over year?

At some point in time that stops.

We’re seeing the first signs of that with Nvidia reporting a slowdown in AI server revenues – but that’s hardly reflected in the market price yet.

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Nvidia’s market cap is already more than that of all UK stocks, and is now closing in on the market cap of all of Japan!

However, when everything has already priced this massive, massive growth rate and it needs to be readjusted, you got revaluations.

That’s normal. To be expected.

That’s also why big tech companies can post great growth numbers, even as they’re moving to reduce their employee headcount.

And that’s kind of where we are right now in the AI world, whether it’s Nvidia or Palantir.

Think of it as a highway. The highways have been built and they’re continuing to be built, but the bulk of it is out there. Now. It’s all the businesses at the off-ramps. It’s all the shopping centers, all the movie theaters, all the things that superhighway enables all those services. That’s where we are right now.

All of these secondary businesses are going to grow.

Not a moment of panic, but you should beware the AI trend, as Sam Altman noted, it’s bubbly.

From the hardware perspective, we’re more on the down slope of growth, heading more towards the 20%, 25%, and away from the 40%, 50% levels. And that means some new pricing reevaluations.

An AI pullback will trigger associated pullbacks in the coming weeks.

But we’ve got the rate cut potential impact further out, which should cause AI stocks to trend even higher going into the end of the year.

~ Andrew Zatlin

P.S. from Addison: That insight from Andrew Zatlin is just a small appetizer for the main event: our discussion on Grey Swan Live! shortly.

We’ll cover how Andrew views the labor market, why he’s been more accurate than other forecasters – garnering the #1 ranking on Bloomberg – and look at how his views fit in with many of the potential Grey Swan events we see occurring in the months ahead – including the possibility of a “most terrifying bull market.”

It’s another Grey Swan Live! you won’t want to miss – all part of the incredible value our members enjoy week after week.

If you’re not a member, click here to join now and get access to every Grey Swan Live! (including a recording of today’s Zoom), Special Reports and more.

P.P.S. We’re also hosting a free live tax seminar on how to keep more of your gains with IRS-compliant strategies tomorrow, August 29, at 1 p.m. ET. Registration is free and easy — reserve your spot here.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: Addison@GreySwanFraternity.com.

Nvidia’s earnings report last night measured a new headwind blowing up against the big AI stocks.

Don’t panic.

At least, not yet.

Yes, growth is slowing down. What can you expect when you have 50% growth happening year over year over year?

At some point in time that stops.

We’re seeing the first signs of that with Nvidia reporting a slowdown in AI server revenues – but that’s hardly reflected in the market price yet.

Turn Your Images On

Nvidia’s market cap is already more than that of all UK stocks, and is now closing in on the market cap of all of Japan!

However, when everything has already priced this massive, massive growth rate and it needs to be readjusted, you got revaluations.

That’s normal. To be expected.

That’s also why big tech companies can post great growth numbers, even as they’re moving to reduce their employee headcount.

And that’s kind of where we are right now in the AI world, whether it’s Nvidia or Palantir.

All of these secondary businesses are going to grow.

Not a moment of panic, but you should beware the AI trend, as Sam Altman noted, it’s bubbly.

From the hardware perspective, we’re more on the down slope of growth, heading more towards the 20%, 25%, and away from the 40%, 50% levels. And that means some new pricing reevaluations.

An AI pullback will trigger associated pullbacks in the coming weeks.

But we’ve got the rate cut potential impact further out, which should cause AI stocks to trend even higher going into the end of the year.

~ Andrew Zatlin

P.S. from Addison: That insight from Andrew Zatlin is just a small appetizer for the main event: our discussion on Grey Swan Live! shortly.

It’s another Grey Swan Live! you won’t want to miss – all part of the incredible value our members enjoy week after week.

If you’re not a member, click here to join now and get access to every Grey Swan Live! (including a recording of today’s Zoom), Special Reports and more.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: Addison@GreySwanFraternity.com.

Our forecast will feel obvious in hindsight and controversial in advance — the hallmark of a Grey Swan.

Most analysts we speak to are thinking in terms of the history of Western conflict.

They expect full-frontal military engagement.

Beijing, from our modest perch, prefers resolution because resolution compounds its power. Why sacrifice the workshop of the world, when cajoling and bribery will do?

Taiwan will not fall.

It will merge.

Wars, technology races, and political upheavals — all of them rest on fiscal capacity.

In 2026, that capacity will tighten across the developed world simultaneously. Democracies will discover that generosity financed by debt carries conditions, whether voters approve of them or not.

Bond markets will not shout so much as clear their throats. Repeatedly.

Taken together, the seven Grey Swans of 2025 behaved less like isolated events and more like interlocking stories readers already recognize.

The year moved in phases. A sharp April selloff cleared leverage quickly. Policy shifted toward tax relief, lighter regulation, and renewed tolerance for liquidity. Innovations began to slowly dominate the marketplace conversation – from Dollar 2.0 digital assets to AI-powered applications in all manner of commercial enterprises, ranging from airline and hotel bookings to driverless taxis and robots.

Back in April, when we published what we called the Trump Great Reset Strategy, we described the grand realignment we believed President Trump and his acolytes were embarking on in three phases.

At the time, it read like a conceptual map. As the months passed, it began to feel like a set of operating instructions written in advance of turbulence.

As you can expect, any grandiose plan would get all kinds of blowback… but this year exhibited all manner of Trump Derangement Syndrome on top of the difficulty of steering a sclerotic empire clear of the rocky shores.

The “phases” were never about optimism or pessimism. They were about sequencing — how stress surfaces, how systems adapt, and what must hold before confidence can regenerate. And in the end, what do we do with our money?!