Andrew Zatlin: Time for an AI Pause?

Addison Wiggin

August 28, 2025 • 2 minute, 36 second read

AI AI bubble terrifying bull market

Nvidia’s earnings report last night measured a new headwind blowing up against the big AI stocks.

Don’t panic.

At least, not yet.

Yes, growth is slowing down. What can you expect when you have 50% growth happening year over year over year?

At some point in time that stops.

We’re seeing the first signs of that with Nvidia reporting a slowdown in AI server revenues – but that’s hardly reflected in the market price yet.

Turn Your Images On

Nvidia’s market cap is already more than that of all UK stocks, and is now closing in on the market cap of all of Japan!

However, when everything has already priced this massive, massive growth rate and it needs to be readjusted, you got revaluations.

That’s normal. To be expected.

That’s also why big tech companies can post great growth numbers, even as they’re moving to reduce their employee headcount.

And that’s kind of where we are right now in the AI world, whether it’s Nvidia or Palantir.

Think of it as a highway. The highways have been built and they’re continuing to be built, but the bulk of it is out there. Now. It’s all the businesses at the off-ramps. It’s all the shopping centers, all the movie theaters, all the things that superhighway enables all those services. That’s where we are right now.

All of these secondary businesses are going to grow.

Not a moment of panic, but you should beware the AI trend, as Sam Altman noted, it’s bubbly.

From the hardware perspective, we’re more on the down slope of growth, heading more towards the 20%, 25%, and away from the 40%, 50% levels. And that means some new pricing reevaluations.

An AI pullback will trigger associated pullbacks in the coming weeks.

But we’ve got the rate cut potential impact further out, which should cause AI stocks to trend even higher going into the end of the year.

~ Andrew Zatlin

P.S. from Addison: That insight from Andrew Zatlin is just a small appetizer for the main event: our discussion on Grey Swan Live! shortly.

We’ll cover how Andrew views the labor market, why he’s been more accurate than other forecasters – garnering the #1 ranking on Bloomberg – and look at how his views fit in with many of the potential Grey Swan events we see occurring in the months ahead – including the possibility of a “most terrifying bull market.”

It’s another Grey Swan Live! you won’t want to miss – all part of the incredible value our members enjoy week after week.

If you’re not a member, click here to join now and get access to every Grey Swan Live! (including a recording of today’s Zoom), Special Reports and more.

P.P.S. We’re also hosting a free live tax seminar on how to keep more of your gains with IRS-compliant strategies tomorrow, August 29, at 1 p.m. ET. Registration is free and easy — reserve your spot here.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: Addison@GreySwanFraternity.com.

Stefan Bartl: From Draining the Swamp to Owning Intel: Is the Right Becoming What It Feared?

September 17, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As time unfolds, the US federal government’s tentacles burrow ever-deeper into the economy. In the 2008 crisis, banks deemed “too big to fail” received a government bailout. The following year, automobile firms GM and Chrysler were saved from bankruptcy. When the Treasury exited GM in 2013, taxpayers were left with a loss of more than $10 billion. Ten years later, the federal government forbade Nippon Steel to acquire US Steel, in a merger they both desired. Instead, the government settled for Nippon Steel to invest in US Steel alongside its own direct ownership of the firm via a “golden share.” Just this past week, the US federal government announced its 10 percent stake in Intel, the struggling US semiconductor giant. On top of the $7 billion Intel had already received from the 2024 CHIPS Act, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo called Intel “America’s champion semiconductor company.”

Stefan Bartl: From Draining the Swamp to Owning Intel: Is the Right Becoming What It Feared?

When the Ballast Shifts

September 17, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

At 2 p.m. today, the Fed will release its rate decision and quarterly projections. Most expect a 25-basis-point cut.

Bond traders are betting more will come before the year’s end. At 2:30 p.m., Jerome Powell will face the press, and investors will parse every word for hints of further easing.

Trump is appealing to the Supreme Court to fire Governor Lisa Cook, after a lower court ruled she could stay while her lawsuit proceeds.

If successful, he’ll gain another seat to fill — tightening his grip on the Fed.

“Officials are expected to lower rates today in an attempt to backstop a shaky U.S. labor market,” Bloomberg reported this morning, “after unrelenting pressure from the president for a ‘big cut.’”

It’s Still Early Days for Gold

September 17, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

With gold prices continuing to push higher – and with central bankers buying hand over fist – gold miners should continue to see expanding profits.

That’s in sharp contrast to the rest of the market, where any potential slowdown in AI could cause a break lower.

The Fed, bending to political winds, is likely to join its global counterparts in cutting interest rates today. There’s more yet to the story for gold and the gold miners – as we forecast a year ago.

Dave Hebert: How Long Could That $1.8 Billion Powerball Jackpot Fund the Government?

September 16, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Our fiscal reality is clearly unsustainable. With the passage of the “Big Beautiful” budget reconciliation bill, Congress has already given itself permission to grow the national debt to $41 trillion. Interest payments on the national debt are already the second-most-expensive item on the federal budget, behind only Social Security (and ahead of defense spending). As the national debt continues to grow, debt service will become our number one spending obligation. History suggests it’s only a matter of time until we hit that limit and, unless things change, once again raise the debt ceiling. This cannot continue indefinitely.

Dave Hebert: How Long Could That $1.8 Billion Powerball Jackpot Fund the Government?