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Ripple Effect

Andrew Zatlin: The “Soggy” Labor Market

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

August 26, 2025 • 1 minute, 39 second read


Labor Market

Andrew Zatlin: The “Soggy” Labor Market

Weekly jobless claims data tells me something is going on in the labor market.

Weekly Claims Spike Up 11,000

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New applications for weekly jobless benefits jumped 11,000 to 235,000 for the week ending August 16.

That was well above economists’ estimates… and above even my own.

This tells me that we have a very “soggy” labor market right now. We anticipated an uptick in claims for the week; however, this was more than expected.

Ongoing claims jumped to 1.97 million for the week ending August 9, the highest number since November 2021.

Many economists and mainstream financial media follow the narrative that there is no hiring and no firing. I see something slightly different … slightly more firing and slightly less hiring.

Additionally, it continues to tell me that those out of work continue to struggle to find another job.

Initial claims fell in California, Michigan and Texas, however that was offset by rises in Kentucky (auto plants), Massachusetts and Iowa.

Federal employee claims were flat, but remained up from last year.

In the Delmarva region (Delaware, Maryland, Virginia and Washington, D.C.), continuing claims increased by 3,500.

Layoffs in the tech sector continued to rise as claims in Oregon and Washington were up 5,300 from the previous week, and more than 10,000 in the last two weeks, combined.

~ Andrew Zatlin

P.S. from Addison: That insight from Andrew Zatlin is just a small appetizer for the main event: our discussion on Grey Swan Live! Thursday.

We’ll cover how Andrew views the labor market, why he’s been more accurate than other forecasters – garnering the #1 ranking on Bloomberg – and look at how his views fit in with many of the potential Grey Swan events we see occurring in the months ahead – including the possibility of a “most terrifying bull market.”

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It’s another Grey Swan Live! you won’t want to miss – all part of the incredible value our members enjoy week after week.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: Addison@GreySwanFraternity.com.


Gold’s $4,000 Moment

October 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

There’s something about big, round numbers that draws investors like moths to a flame.

In the stock market, every 1,000 points in the Dow or 100 points in the S&P 500 tends to act like a magnet.

Now, after consolidating for five months, gold has broken higher to $4,000.

Gold’s $4,000 Moment
The 45% Club

October 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

AI stocks are running hot. They’re not the only game in town… but they’re about half of it.

JPMorgan just reviewed all of the 500 companies in the S&P 500. A full 41 of them are AI-related. While that’s less than 10% of the index by total, it is over 45% of the index by market cap.

The 45% Club
George Gilder: Morgan Stanley’s Memory Problem

October 7, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Overspending during periods of rising ASPs is self-destructive. For most products, today’s ASP increases result less from natural demand pull and more from supplier-enforced discipline. If memory makers treat them as justification for a capex binge, they will repeat past mistakes and trigger another collapse.

The $50 billion bull case for WFE in 2026 rests on a faulty assumption. Lam and AMAT may benefit from selective investments, but the cycle-defining upturn Morgan Stanley describes is unlikely.

Investors should temper expectations. If history repeats — and memory markets have a way of doing so — the companies that preserve pricing power will outperform, while equipment suppliers may find that the promised order boom never fully materializes.

George Gilder: Morgan Stanley’s Memory Problem
Europe’s Increasing Irrelevancy

October 7, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Europe’s GDP has flatlined over the past 15 years, against a doubling in GDP for the U.S. and even bigger GDP gains in China.

While the U.S. leads the world in AI spending, and China leads in technology like drones, what does Europe lead the world in? Regulation.

They spend more time penalizing U.S. tech firms for regulatory violations than encouraging their own tech ecosystem.

Europe’s Increasing Irrelevancy