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Ripple Effect

Andrew Zatlin: The “Soggy” Labor Market

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

August 26, 2025 • 1 minute, 39 second read


Labor Market

Andrew Zatlin: The “Soggy” Labor Market

Weekly jobless claims data tells me something is going on in the labor market.

Weekly Claims Spike Up 11,000

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New applications for weekly jobless benefits jumped 11,000 to 235,000 for the week ending August 16.

That was well above economists’ estimates… and above even my own.

This tells me that we have a very “soggy” labor market right now. We anticipated an uptick in claims for the week; however, this was more than expected.

Ongoing claims jumped to 1.97 million for the week ending August 9, the highest number since November 2021.

Many economists and mainstream financial media follow the narrative that there is no hiring and no firing. I see something slightly different … slightly more firing and slightly less hiring.

Additionally, it continues to tell me that those out of work continue to struggle to find another job.

Initial claims fell in California, Michigan and Texas, however that was offset by rises in Kentucky (auto plants), Massachusetts and Iowa.

Federal employee claims were flat, but remained up from last year.

In the Delmarva region (Delaware, Maryland, Virginia and Washington, D.C.), continuing claims increased by 3,500.

Layoffs in the tech sector continued to rise as claims in Oregon and Washington were up 5,300 from the previous week, and more than 10,000 in the last two weeks, combined.

~ Andrew Zatlin

P.S. from Addison: That insight from Andrew Zatlin is just a small appetizer for the main event: our discussion on Grey Swan Live! Thursday.

We’ll cover how Andrew views the labor market, why he’s been more accurate than other forecasters – garnering the #1 ranking on Bloomberg – and look at how his views fit in with many of the potential Grey Swan events we see occurring in the months ahead – including the possibility of a “most terrifying bull market.”

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It’s another Grey Swan Live! you won’t want to miss – all part of the incredible value our members enjoy week after week.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: Addison@GreySwanFraternity.com.


Networked Nationalism Rises

October 27, 2025 • John Robb

On the current trajectory, online and offline tribal warfare, with events that range from assassinations to riots to sabotage, is inevitable. Worse still, with both sides waging moral warfare (good versus evil), there is no middle ground, rendering compromise impossible.

To avoid this, the government could step in to crack down on illegal immigrants, serial criminality, and activist blue cells to slow the ramp in extrajudicial violence from the red tribe. This would reduce the chance we see a rapid escalation in tit for tat violence. However, to do this, it would need to designate many activist groups as terrorist entities and pursue them with the degree of vigor we saw with Islamic radicals after 9/11.

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October 27, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

We’ve been watching private credit all year — the $3 trillion shadow banking machine that promises “nimble lending” but operates in the dark. Think of it as the modern heir to subprime mortgages: a system that works beautifully until it doesn’t.

According to Moody’s, U.S. commercial banks now hold $300 billion in loans to private credit firms, up from just $100 billion a decade ago. That’s more than 10% of total bank lending — and it means the “non-bank” lenders aren’t so non-bank after all.

When banks lend to private funds, which then lend to companies like First Brands, the risk just loops back into the same system regulators thought they’d insulated after 2008.

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Hedge funds have gone all-in on semiconductor stocks.

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October 24, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

We believe the emergence of a USD stablecoin carries the potential to be a transformative event in monetary history, one as consequential as the day the United States severed its link to gold and as powerful in shaping the world’s financial order as the moment it abandoned Bretton Woods.

This paper does not offer reassurance of the status quo. It confronts a reality that few seem to have yet recognized and even fewer truly understand. It describes the quiet emergence of a tool whose strategic potential remains largely unseen, even as it begins to reshape the foundations of global finance.

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