Weekly jobless claims data tells me something is going on in the labor market.
Weekly Claims Spike Up 11,000
New applications for weekly jobless benefits jumped 11,000 to 235,000 for the week ending August 16.
That was well above economists’ estimates… and above even my own.
This tells me that we have a very “soggy” labor market right now. We anticipated an uptick in claims for the week; however, this was more than expected.
Ongoing claims jumped to 1.97 million for the week ending August 9, the highest number since November 2021.
Many economists and mainstream financial media follow the narrative that there is no hiring and no firing. I see something slightly different … slightly more firing and slightly less hiring.
Additionally, it continues to tell me that those out of work continue to struggle to find another job.
Initial claims fell in California, Michigan and Texas, however that was offset by rises in Kentucky (auto plants), Massachusetts and Iowa.
Federal employee claims were flat, but remained up from last year.
In the Delmarva region (Delaware, Maryland, Virginia and Washington, D.C.), continuing claims increased by 3,500.
Layoffs in the tech sector continued to rise as claims in Oregon and Washington were up 5,300 from the previous week, and more than 10,000 in the last two weeks, combined.
~ Andrew Zatlin
P.S. from Addison: That insight from Andrew Zatlin is just a small appetizer for the main event: our discussion on Grey Swan Live! Thursday.
We’ll cover how Andrew views the labor market, why he’s been more accurate than other forecasters – garnering the #1 ranking on Bloomberg – and look at how his views fit in with many of the potential Grey Swan events we see occurring in the months ahead – including the possibility of a “most terrifying bull market.”
It’s another Grey Swan Live! you won’t want to miss – all part of the incredible value our members enjoy week after week.
If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: Addison@GreySwanFraternity.com
