Andrew Zatlin: The “Phantom” Economy

Let’s talk construction jobs.

The construction industry is contracting. The number of permit applications recently hit a two-year low, meaning builders are not seeing much growth.

In fact, builders are having to add a lot of incentives just to sell the homes they’ve got out there. And in fact, when we talk about building starts, it’s at an 11-month low. In other words, demand for construction workers isn’t booming. It’s quite the opposite.

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But here’s where things get more interesting.

When someone files for a jobless claim, there’s a lot of data that’s picked up. Gender, age, ethnicity, and industry. Where were you working?

We’re seeing fewer jobless claims, but you know where we’re seeing a lot more claims. It’s in this category called no information. That’s right. Not everybody calls out where they were working.

So last year, about 13% of California’s jobless claims came back with no industry indicated, no information. 13%. This year it’s at 30%. One out of every three jobless claims being submitted is blank in terms of where the workers are.

Now, why would somebody not want to call out where they were working?

I’ll tell you, because those three sectors that I called out are dominated not just by Hispanic workers but by undocumented workers.

For example, farm workers, 70% of them are undocumented workers. Similarly, in construction, around 40% are undocumented Hispanic workers and so on and so on.

So rather than run the risk of being deported, many of these workers who are entitled to jobless claims and normally would be filing for those jobless claims are just belt-tightening.

They’re going to withstand not having an income for a while.

~ Andrew Zatlin

P.S. from Addison: That insight from Andrew Zatlin is just a small appetizer for the main event: our discussion on Grey Swan Live! Thursday. The jobs market is the main reason behind the Fed pivot to cutting rates… and ushering in the “most terrifying bull market” we’re likely to see in our lifetimes.

We’ll cover how Andrew views the labor market, why he’s been more accurate than other forecasters – garnering the #1 ranking on Bloomberg – and look at how his views fit in with many of the potential Grey Swan events we see occurring in the months ahead – including the possibility of a “most terrifying bull market.”

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It’s another Grey Swan Live! you won’t want to miss – all part of the incredible value our members enjoy week after week.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: Addison@GreySwanFraternity.com.

Let’s talk construction jobs.

The construction industry is contracting. The number of permit applications recently hit a two-year low, meaning builders are not seeing much growth.

Turn Your Images On

But here’s where things get more interesting.

When someone files for a jobless claim, there’s a lot of data that’s picked up. Gender, age, ethnicity, and industry. Where were you working?

Now, why would somebody not want to call out where they were working?

I’ll tell you, because those three sectors that I called out are dominated not just by Hispanic workers but by undocumented workers.

For example, farm workers, 70% of them are undocumented workers. Similarly, in construction, around 40% are undocumented Hispanic workers and so on and so on.

So rather than run the risk of being deported, many of these workers who are entitled to jobless claims and normally would be filing for those jobless claims are just belt-tightening.

They’re going to withstand not having an income for a while.

~ Andrew Zatlin

Turn Your Images On

It’s another Grey Swan Live! you won’t want to miss – all part of the incredible value our members enjoy week after week.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: Addison@GreySwanFraternity.com.

As copper flowed into the United States, LME inventories thinned and backwardation steepened. Higher U.S. pricing, tariff protection, and lower political risk made American warehouses the most attractive destination for metal. Each new shipment strengthened the spread.

The arbitrage, once triggered, became self-reinforcing. Traders were not participating in theory; they were responding to the physical incentives in front of them.

The United States had quietly become the marginal buyer of the world’s most important industrial metal. China, long the gravitational center of global copper demand, found itself on the outside.

Under the frost-crusted shrubs, the bears are sniffing around for scraps of bloody meat.

They smell the subtle rot of credit stress, central-bank desperation, and debt that’s beginning to steam in the cold. They’re not charging — not yet. But they’re present. Watching. Testing the doors.

Retail investors, last in line, await the Fed’s final announcement of the year on Wednesday. Then the central planners of the world get their turn: the Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank.

Treasuries just suffered their worst week since June. And in Japan — the quiet godfather of global liquidity — something fundamental is breaking.

Silver continues its blistering ascent. Gold and bitcoin have settled in at $4,200 and $92,000, respectively.

It’s absurd, really, for any politician to be talking about “affordability.”

The data is clear. If higher prices are your goal, let the government “fix” them.

Mandates, paperwork, and busybodies telling you what you can and can’t do – it’s not a surprise why costs add up.

In contrast, if you want lower prices, do nothing– zilch. Let the market work.

For 30 years, Japan was the land where interest rates went to die.

The Bank of Japan used yield-curve control to keep long-term rates sedated. Traders joked that shorting Japanese bonds was the “widow-maker trade.”

Not anymore.

On November 20, 2025, everything changed. Quietly, but decisively.

The Bank of Japan finally pulled the plug on decades of easy money. Negative rates were removed. Yield-curve control was abandoned. The policy rate was lifted to a 17-year high.

Suddenly, global markets had to reprice something they had ignored for years.

What happens when the world’s largest creditor nation stops exporting cheap capital and starts pulling it back home?

The answer came fast. Bond yields in Europe and the United States began climbing. The Japanese yen strengthened sharply. Wall Street faltered.