Trick question: which stocks do best in a market bubble?
As we look to close out the year, financials, as measured by the SPDR Financial ETF (XLF) are on a tear:
After touching the 200-day moving average during the private credit scare in the fall, financial stocks are in full Santa Rally mode (Source: Stockcharts.com)
Except for a minor blowup in the private credit markets, the only challenge financial stocks had this year was in April, when everything got whacked by Trump’s shock-and-awe tariff announcements.
Stands to reason, in a bull market for stocks, mergers, acquisitions and new issues, financial stocks are like the “brick and mortar” plays for Wall Street itself.
In our upcoming December Grey Swan Bulletin, available for paid-up Fraternity members, Andrew Packer digs into a growing trend in private credit that could cause the space to wreak havoc on the financial markets four distinct times in 2026.
For now? It’s smooth sailing into the new year.
~ Addison
P.S. Catch us tomorrow on Grey Swan Live! we’re joined by Dan Amoss — a forensic accountant by training and a market bloodhound by instinct. A short glance at the calendar reveals… this will be our last scheduled Grey Swan Live! in 2025.
To the casual observer, Dan’s work invites comparisons to Michael Burry of The Big Short fame. The difference is that Dan was practicing this brand of forensic investing long before Hollywood learned how to spell “CDO.” For the last decade, he’s been trading stocks and options for another friend you may recognize, Jim Rickards.
Dan’s going to walk us through several trades he’s made during the AI boom — and, more importantly, the accounting stress fractures beneath the surface that lead him to believe 2026 could prove even more treacherous for individual investors than 2000–01 or 2008–09.
It’ll be dense, unsettling, and refreshingly coherent. You won’t want to miss this one.
