Last night’s 60–40 Senate vote shoved the government back toward “on.” There’s apparently a shutdown truce… for now.
A bloc of Democrats “crossed the aisle” after weeks of getting nowhere on health-care demands. “We had no path forward… and SNAP beneficiaries were losing benefits,” Sen. Tim Kaine, one of the 7 who conveniently aren’t up for reelection, said.
The new deal funds Washington only through January, tacks on three bills to keep parts of Defense, Ag, and the Capitol complex humming through 2026, reverses shutdown-era RIFs, and restores back pay.
The House is next; the president says he’ll sign it fast when it gets to the Oval Office.
Democrats are furious, not because there was a better path, but because there wasn’t one — and someone had to play the piñata. As Josh Barro put it, the maddest voters “would crawl across broken glass” to vote blue anyway.
Today’s scapegoat: Chuck Schumer.
Markets: Relief Rally, With a Side of Rate Hopes
Stocks ripped yesterday as shutdown-end odds improved and dip-buyers reloaded tech. The Nasdaq logged its best day since May.
Gold bounced to a two-week high; silver and platinum joined the party. Friendly reminder: the bond market is closed today, even if equities keep ringing the bell.
Barrick Gold’s Q3 was a sledgehammer: $1.3 billion in profit, nearly triple last year, and earnings per share up 132% year to date. Free cash flow is up 176%.
Management hiked the dividend by 25% and added $500 million to buybacks on top of $1 billion already done.
That’s off an average realized gold price of ~$3,200.
With Q4 averaging over $4,000 so far, the math writes its own guidance. Central banks continue to purchase the metal by the metric ton, while deficits and dysfunction underscore the rationale for doing so.
Barrick shares have doubled this year — and, hilariously, many miners still screen “cheap.”
Trump Tariff “Dividend”?
Yesterday, the president floated a $2,000-per-person rebate from tariff proceeds (excluding some “high-income people”).
Treasury says there’s no formal plan; Congress would almost certainly need to bless it.
Arithmetic buzzkill: total tariffs collected (~$220B) don’t stretch to ~$326B needed to cut checks to all taxpayers. File under: crowd-pleaser, details pending.
In other Trump news, the BBC’s “Trump: A Second Chance?” ignited a newsroom brushfire.
Director-General Tim Davie and News CEO Deborah Turness resigned after claims of misleading edits around a Jan. 6 clip. The White House has demanded retraction, apology, and damages “no less than” $1B by Friday at 5 p.m. ET — or see you in court.
Recent media settlements: ABC ($15M), Paramount Skydance ($16M), and the platforms (YouTube, X, Meta) collectively near $50M. Statisticians call this a trend.
Buffett Bows — Carefully
Warren Buffett says he’s done writing the famed annual letter as Greg Abel prepares to take the CEO chair at year-end.
He’ll keep penning his Thanksgiving note (tradition is a moat) and hold on to a chunk of Class A shares to ease the handoff, even as he accelerates gifts to family foundations.
The Oracle isn’t gone; he’s just lowering his voice.
Households: Heavier Packs, Steeper Trails
Meanwhile, over on Main Street, U.S. household debt jumped $197 billion in the third quarter to a new record of $18.6 trillion—up $642 billion over the past year.
Yikes.
We’re keeping one lazy eye on the intractable rise in consumer debt. Not unlike banks themselves, when a credit crisis hits, banks go first, then consumer credit gets the vice. (Source: Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax)
Rising balances, higher delinquencies, softer real wages: the K-shaped economy keeps sharpening.
The Chicago Fed sees unemployment edging to ~4.36% in October — the highest since 2021 — helped along by a shutdown that turned “data dependent” into “data deficient.” The Fed’s December cut is still the betting favorite, but the policy dilemma is getting louder.
We’ll be digging into these employment numbers and the lasting impact of the government shutdown with Andrew Zatlin, Bloomberg’s #1 employment trend forecaster, Thursday, November 13, 2025 at 2pm on Grey Swan Live! See details in the p.s. below.
Swipe Fight (20 Years Later)
Visa and Mastercard reached a settlement with merchants alleging excessive fees. Headline terms: average swipe fees lower by ~0.10% for five years (merchants pencil that as $30 billion+ saved), more freedom to surcharge by card category, and the flexibility to refuse certain premium plastics that carry fat rewards — and fat fees.
A judge who called last year’s 0.07% proposal “paltry” still has to bless this one. Consumers: expect more targeted surcharges, not fewer, and the occasional “sorry, not that card.”
The FAA vs. the Jet Set
With towers understaffed, the FAA has restricted private jets at a dozen major airports (JFK, EWR, LAX, ORD, ATL, DFW, et al.). Commercial schedules were trimmed 4% last week, headed toward 10% by Friday.
Yesterday saw 2,300+ cancellations (~5.5% of traffic). The president told controllers to report or be docked, and dangled a $10,000 bonus for those who stuck it out without pay. Even with a Senate deal in hand, normal takes a minute.
Dollar 2.0: Our Grey Swan Working Thesis
We’re tracking three kinds of opportunities in the shift to digital dollars:
• The issuers — companies that create digital dollars backed by real cash or short-term U.S. Treasuries, and prove it every month. Think of them as safer, faster payment systems that don’t depend on weekend bankers.
• The builders — firms designing the plumbing and legal framework that make those payments work. They’re the picks and shovels of the new financial gold rush.
• The adapters — traditional banks that plug into the new system instead of fighting it, using faster settlement to cut costs and (in theory) pass the savings on to customers.
In short: the new money rails are coming, the infrastructure is investable, and the smart banks will ride them instead of watching from the station.
You don’t need to torch your checking account at Wells Fargo to benefit.
On Oct. 21, the Fed hosted its payments innovation conference and formally opened the policy spigot on stablecoins, crypto, and tokenization. We’ll keep tracking, and flagging investable edges, as the guardrails go up.
And a small house note: if you need help with billing or logins, our support team is saintly. Please be kind.
Armistice Day, Updated
A century ago, Armistice Day marked the hope that guns could go silent. In the U.S. we call it Veterans Day.
It’s only fitting that the Senate announced its new deal today, isn’t it?
Like any war, the motives for either side in the shutdown were always specious and political. Neither side really “wins” a shutdown. And it’s the civilians who shoulder all of the damage.
Chuck Schumer would do well to take Nancy Pelosi’s lead and retire. The rest of Congress should, in our humble opinion, pass term limits and a balanced budget amendment.
But who are we to say?
~ Addison
P.S.: Grey Swan Live! with Andrew Zatlin — The Lasting Impact of the Government Shutdown on Markets drops this Thursday, Nov. 13, at 2 p.m. ET.
Andrew Zatlin is Bloomberg’s #1-ranked economic forecaster. We’ll dig into hiring signals, shutdown scarring, and where his alternative data sees surprises next.
Bring questions; Andrew brings receipts.
If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.
