America’s Trillion-Dollar Reserve

America’s soaring debt is a problem. With the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio now exceeding 120%, it is becoming imminent.

And this week’s episode of Government Shut Down theatre shows, once again, we’re politically incapable of even talking about it.

Critics argue we can’t look at America’s debt without considering its assets.

For example, the United States is the largest landholder in the country, owning over 70% of some Western states. And, thanks to gold’s surge over $3,800 per ounce this week, America’s gold reserves have now topped $1 trillion for the first time:

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The value of America’s gold holdings now exceeds $1 trillion (Source: Kobeissi Letter/X)

Of course, that gold remains unaudited in Fort Knox, the basement of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, and no doubt a few other more secret places.

Even at this price, $1 trillion is a fraction of the $37 trillion on the debt side of the government ledger.

And gold’s value isn’t necessarily rising – the dollar is collapsing, practically in real-time. Year-to-date, the U.S. dollar has declined by over 10% against other currencies. In crypto, that’s just a day of volatility. In the forex market, it’s an earthquake.

All things being equal, our forecast for the gold price remains intact.

As is our forecast for a terrifying bull market. Gold is just one asset of many rising during the Trump era grand realignment of the geopolitical and global monetary systems.

We’ll concede to gold’s critics that it’s an inert metal that just sits there, generating no income. But, as such, it’s also the perfect barometer for the health of the fiat monetary system.

Judging by gold’s massive rally the past few years – and the fact that it’s outperformed the S&P 500 century-to-date, sometimes being in the right place and doing nothing is the right move.

~ Addison

P.S. Our forecast for significantly higher gold prices continues to move in the right direction. We’ll also note that even if gold reaches our price target, it wouldn’t be nearly enough to pay off the national debt.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

America’s soaring debt is a problem. With the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio now exceeding 120%, it is becoming imminent.

And this week’s episode of Government Shut Down theatre shows, once again, we’re politically incapable of even talking about it.

Critics argue we can’t look at America’s debt without considering its assets.

Turn Your Images On

The value of America’s gold holdings now exceeds $1 trillion (Source: Kobeissi Letter/X)

Of course, that gold remains unaudited in Fort Knox, the basement of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, and no doubt a few other more secret places.

Even at this price, $1 trillion is a fraction of the $37 trillion on the debt side of the government ledger.

All things being equal, our forecast for the gold price remains intact.

As is our forecast for a terrifying bull market. Gold is just one asset of many rising during the Trump era grand realignment of the geopolitical and global monetary systems.

We’ll concede to gold’s critics that it’s an inert metal that just sits there, generating no income. But, as such, it’s also the perfect barometer for the health of the fiat monetary system.

Judging by gold’s massive rally the past few years – and the fact that it’s outperformed the S&P 500 century-to-date, sometimes being in the right place and doing nothing is the right move.

~ Addison

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time. That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!