America’s Trillion-Dollar Reserve

America’s soaring debt is a problem. With the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio now exceeding 120%, it is becoming imminent.

And this week’s episode of Government Shut Down theatre shows, once again, we’re politically incapable of even talking about it.

Critics argue we can’t look at America’s debt without considering its assets.

For example, the United States is the largest landholder in the country, owning over 70% of some Western states. And, thanks to gold’s surge over $3,800 per ounce this week, America’s gold reserves have now topped $1 trillion for the first time:

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The value of America’s gold holdings now exceeds $1 trillion (Source: Kobeissi Letter/X)

Of course, that gold remains unaudited in Fort Knox, the basement of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, and no doubt a few other more secret places.

Even at this price, $1 trillion is a fraction of the $37 trillion on the debt side of the government ledger.

And gold’s value isn’t necessarily rising – the dollar is collapsing, practically in real-time. Year-to-date, the U.S. dollar has declined by over 10% against other currencies. In crypto, that’s just a day of volatility. In the forex market, it’s an earthquake.

All things being equal, our forecast for the gold price remains intact.

As is our forecast for a terrifying bull market. Gold is just one asset of many rising during the Trump era grand realignment of the geopolitical and global monetary systems.

We’ll concede to gold’s critics that it’s an inert metal that just sits there, generating no income. But, as such, it’s also the perfect barometer for the health of the fiat monetary system.

Judging by gold’s massive rally the past few years – and the fact that it’s outperformed the S&P 500 century-to-date, sometimes being in the right place and doing nothing is the right move.

~ Addison

P.S. Our forecast for significantly higher gold prices continues to move in the right direction. We’ll also note that even if gold reaches our price target, it wouldn’t be nearly enough to pay off the national debt.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

America’s soaring debt is a problem. With the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio now exceeding 120%, it is becoming imminent.

And this week’s episode of Government Shut Down theatre shows, once again, we’re politically incapable of even talking about it.

Critics argue we can’t look at America’s debt without considering its assets.

Turn Your Images On

The value of America’s gold holdings now exceeds $1 trillion (Source: Kobeissi Letter/X)

Of course, that gold remains unaudited in Fort Knox, the basement of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, and no doubt a few other more secret places.

Even at this price, $1 trillion is a fraction of the $37 trillion on the debt side of the government ledger.

All things being equal, our forecast for the gold price remains intact.

As is our forecast for a terrifying bull market. Gold is just one asset of many rising during the Trump era grand realignment of the geopolitical and global monetary systems.

We’ll concede to gold’s critics that it’s an inert metal that just sits there, generating no income. But, as such, it’s also the perfect barometer for the health of the fiat monetary system.

Judging by gold’s massive rally the past few years – and the fact that it’s outperformed the S&P 500 century-to-date, sometimes being in the right place and doing nothing is the right move.

~ Addison

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com.

Sunday night, Powell addressed the probe head-on in a video post — a rarity. He accused the White House of using cost overruns in the Fed’s HQ renovation as a pretext for political interference.

The White House denied involvement. But few in Washington believed it.

What followed was bipartisan condemnation of the investigation. Greenspan, Bernanke, and Yellen co-signed a blistering rebuke, warning the U.S. was starting to resemble “emerging markets with weak institutions.”

Estimates now indicate that the average consumer will default on a minimum payment at about a 15% rate – the highest level since a spike during the pandemic lockdown of the economy.

President Trump’s proposal over the weekend to cap credit card interest at 10% for a year won’t arrive in time to help consumers who are already missing minimum payments.

Not to fret, the other 85% of borrowers continue to spend on borrowed time. Total U.S. household debt, including mortgages, auto loans, student loans, and credit cards, reached record highs in late 2025, exceeding $18.5 trillion. This surge was driven partly by rising credit card balances, which neared their own all-time peaks due to inflation and higher interest rates.

There’s an old Wall Street maxim: “Don’t fight the Fed.”

This year, you could add a Trump corollary.

A wise capital allocator doesn’t fight that storm. He doesn’t argue with it. He respects it the way sailors respect the sea: with preparation, with humility, and with a sharp eye for what breaks first.

In 2026, the things that break first are the stories. The narratives. The comfortable assumptions.

Total municipal, state and federal debt service costs soared to nearly $1.5 trillion in the third quarter of 2025. Debt’s easy to accumulate when rates are low. Trouble is, you are obligated to refinance them even after rates go up.

It’s also a key reason why the Trump administration is demanding lower interest rates – even if it means reigniting inflation.