Beneath the Surface
America’s Ballooning Fiscal Gap Threatens to Blow Up Its Future
October 8, 2024 • 1 minute, 50 second read
Lau Vegys, Doug Casey’s Crisis Investing
Today’s chart shows the path of U.S. government spending and revenues from 1989 to now, along with projections for the next 31 years.
See that gap between the lines? That’s where our debt comes from. Every year, when spending outpaces revenue, it’s like putting the difference on the national credit card.
If you take a closer look, the late ’90s and early 2000s were the only time the government’s books weren’t a total mess. Revenues were up, spending was under control. We even toyed with the idea of paying off the national debt. Seems like a fairy tale now, doesn’t it?
But then the 2000s rolled in, and things took a turn. Wars, bailouts, you name it. The gap between what the government was taking in and what it was spending started to widen alarmingly. And just when we thought we’d seen it all, 2020 hit us like a freight train. COVID, lockdowns, stimulus checks galore. Government spending skyrocketed to 30% of GDP.
That was a recipe for a debt explosion, and that’s exactly what happened.
To put it in numbers, our national debt jumped from about $23 trillion at the start of 2020 to over $27 trillion by the end of the year. That’s a staggering $4.5 trillion increase in just one year! For perspective, it took the U.S. over 200 years to accumulate its first $4 trillion in debt.
At writing, we’re staring at $35.67 trillion and counting in national debt, with interest payments exceeding $1 trillion for the first time in history.
That’s grim, but the future doesn’t look any brighter. See that orange line stretching into the distance? That’s government spending, and it’s on an upward trajectory with no signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, the black line – that’s revenue – is barely budging. We’re looking at a gap that’s widening year after year, with no end in sight.
By 2054, we’re looking at spending levels above 30% of GDP with revenues hovering under 20%. This means we’ll be adding trillions to the national debt every single year, and that’s probably a best-case scenario. ~~ Lau Vegys, Doug Casey’s Crisis Investing
