GSI Banner
  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Grey Swan Forecasts
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • My Account
  • Sign In
  • Join Now

  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Grey Swan Forecasts
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • Contact

© 2026 Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

  • Cookie Policy
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information
  • Whitelist Us
Beneath the Surface

America’s Ballooning Fiscal Gap Threatens to Blow Up Its Future

Lau VegysLau Vegys

October 8, 2024 • 1 minute, 50 second read


debtfiscal gapfiscal spending

America’s Ballooning Fiscal Gap Threatens to Blow Up Its Future

Lau Vegys, Doug Casey’s Crisis Investing

Today’s chart shows the path of U.S. government spending and revenues from 1989 to now, along with projections for the next 31 years.

See that gap between the lines? That’s where our debt comes from. Every year, when spending outpaces revenue, it’s like putting the difference on the national credit card.

Turn Your Images On

If you take a closer look, the late ’90s and early 2000s were the only time the government’s books weren’t a total mess. Revenues were up, spending was under control. We even toyed with the idea of paying off the national debt. Seems like a fairy tale now, doesn’t it?

But then the 2000s rolled in, and things took a turn. Wars, bailouts, you name it. The gap between what the government was taking in and what it was spending started to widen alarmingly. And just when we thought we’d seen it all, 2020 hit us like a freight train. COVID, lockdowns, stimulus checks galore. Government spending skyrocketed to 30% of GDP.

That was a recipe for a debt explosion, and that’s exactly what happened.

To put it in numbers, our national debt jumped from about $23 trillion at the start of 2020 to over $27 trillion by the end of the year. That’s a staggering $4.5 trillion increase in just one year! For perspective, it took the U.S. over 200 years to accumulate its first $4 trillion in debt.

At writing, we’re staring at $35.67 trillion and counting in national debt, with interest payments exceeding $1 trillion for the first time in history.

That’s grim, but the future doesn’t look any brighter. See that orange line stretching into the distance? That’s government spending, and it’s on an upward trajectory with no signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, the black line – that’s revenue – is barely budging. We’re looking at a gap that’s widening year after year, with no end in sight.

By 2054, we’re looking at spending levels above 30% of GDP with revenues hovering under 20%. This means we’ll be adding trillions to the national debt every single year, and that’s probably a best-case scenario. ~~ Lau Vegys, Doug Casey’s Crisis Investing


Inflation Pressure Begins With Shippers

September 4, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

A surge in the cost of moving raw materials could be the latest sign that persistent inflation is building throughout the global supply chain.

Inflation Pressure Begins With Shippers
Fertilizer Sows Inflation

September 3, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Fertilizer sits beneath the crops. And right now, it’s moving first. This breakout is one worth watching — and potentially worth investing in.

Fertilizer Sows Inflation
The Master of Financial Engineering

September 2, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Tim Cook famously helped Apple reach $1 trillion in market cap. This is how he created over 2,200% in “shareholder value.”

The Master of Financial Engineering
Japan: Canary in a Coal Mine

September 1, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

As the Japanese bond goes, so goes the U.S. Treasury. At least, that’s the playbook Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is playing from…

Japan: Canary in a Coal Mine