America’s Ballooning Fiscal Gap Threatens to Blow Up Its Future

October 8, 2024 • 1 minute, 50 second read

Lau Vegys, Doug Casey’s Crisis Investing

Today’s chart shows the path of U.S. government spending and revenues from 1989 to now, along with projections for the next 31 years.

See that gap between the lines? That’s where our debt comes from. Every year, when spending outpaces revenue, it’s like putting the difference on the national credit card.

Turn Your Images On

If you take a closer look, the late ’90s and early 2000s were the only time the government’s books weren’t a total mess. Revenues were up, spending was under control. We even toyed with the idea of paying off the national debt. Seems like a fairy tale now, doesn’t it?

But then the 2000s rolled in, and things took a turn. Wars, bailouts, you name it. The gap between what the government was taking in and what it was spending started to widen alarmingly. And just when we thought we’d seen it all, 2020 hit us like a freight train. COVID, lockdowns, stimulus checks galore. Government spending skyrocketed to 30% of GDP.

That was a recipe for a debt explosion, and that’s exactly what happened.

To put it in numbers, our national debt jumped from about $23 trillion at the start of 2020 to over $27 trillion by the end of the year. That’s a staggering $4.5 trillion increase in just one year! For perspective, it took the U.S. over 200 years to accumulate its first $4 trillion in debt.

At writing, we’re staring at $35.67 trillion and counting in national debt, with interest payments exceeding $1 trillion for the first time in history.

That’s grim, but the future doesn’t look any brighter. See that orange line stretching into the distance? That’s government spending, and it’s on an upward trajectory with no signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, the black line – that’s revenue – is barely budging. We’re looking at a gap that’s widening year after year, with no end in sight.

By 2054, we’re looking at spending levels above 30% of GDP with revenues hovering under 20%. This means we’ll be adding trillions to the national debt every single year, and that’s probably a best-case scenario. ~~ Lau Vegys, Doug Casey’s Crisis Investing

Beneath the Surface

America’s Ballooning Fiscal Gap Threatens to Blow Up Its Future

Lau Vegys

October 8, 2024 • 1 minute, 50 second read

debt fiscal gap fiscal spending

Lau Vegys, Doug Casey’s Crisis Investing

Today’s chart shows the path of U.S. government spending and revenues from 1989 to now, along with projections for the next 31 years.

See that gap between the lines? That’s where our debt comes from. Every year, when spending outpaces revenue, it’s like putting the difference on the national credit card.

Turn Your Images On

That was a recipe for a debt explosion, and that’s exactly what happened.

At writing, we’re staring at $35.67 trillion and counting in national debt, with interest payments exceeding $1 trillion for the first time in history.

The Second American Revolution Will Be Digitized

December 10, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As we approach the 250th anniversary of the United States, it’s worth recalling that our first Revolution wasn’t waged to destroy an order — it was fought to preserve one.

Political philosopher Russell Kirk called it “a revolution not made but prevented.” The colonists sought not chaos but continuity — the defense of their “chartered rights as Englishmen,” not the birth of an entirely new world. Kirk wrote:

“The American Revolution was a preventive movement, intended to preserve an old constitutional structure. The French Revolution meant the destruction of the fabric of society.”

The difference, Kirk argued, was moral. The American Revolution was rooted in ordered liberty; the French in ideological frenzy. The first produced a Constitution; the second, a guillotine.

Two and a half centuries later, the argument continues — only now, the battlefield is financial. Who controls access to money? Who defines legitimacy? Can a citizen’s ability to transact depend on their politics?

The Second American Revolution Will Be Digitized

The Money Printer Is Coming Back—And Trump Is Taking Over the Fed

December 9, 2025 • Lau Vegys

Trump and Powell are no buddies. They’ve been fighting over rate cuts all year—Trump demanding more, Powell holding back. Even after cutting twice, Trump called him “grossly incompetent” and said he’d “love to fire” him. The tension has been building for months.

And Trump now seems ready to install someone who shares his appetite for lower rates and easier money.

Trump has been dropping hints for weeks—saying on November 18, “I think I already know my choice,” and then doubling down last Sunday aboard Air Force One with, “I know who I am going to pick… we’ll be announcing it.”

He was referring to one Kevin Hassett, who—according to a recent Bloomberg report—has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to become the next Fed chair.

The Money Printer Is Coming Back—And Trump Is Taking Over the Fed

Waiting for Jerome

December 9, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Here we sit — investors, analysts, retirees, accountants, even a few masochistic economists — gathered beneath the leafless monetary tree, rehearsing our lines as we wait for Jerome Powell to step onstage and tell us what the future means.

Spoiler: he can’t. But that does not stop us from waiting.

Tomorrow, he is expected to deliver the December rate cut. Polymarket odds sit at 96% for a dainty 25-point cut.

Trump, Navarro and Lutnick pine for 50 points.

And somewhere in the wings smiles Kevin Hassett — at 74% odds this morning, the presumed Powell successor — watching the last few snowflakes fall before his cue arrives.

Deep Value Going Global in 2026

December 9, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

With U.S. stocks trading at about 24 times forward earnings, plans for capital growth have to go off without a hitch. Given the billions of dollars in commitments by AI companies, financing to the hilt on debt, the most realistic outcome is a hitch.

On a valuation basis, global markets will likely show better returns than U.S. stocks in 2026.

America leads the world in innovation. A U.S. tech stock will naturally fetch a higher price than, say, a German brewery. But value matters, too.

The Second American Revolution Will Be Digitized

December 10, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As we approach the 250th anniversary of the United States, it’s worth recalling that our first Revolution wasn’t waged to destroy an order — it was fought to preserve one.

“The American Revolution was a preventive movement, intended to preserve an old constitutional structure. The French Revolution meant the destruction of the fabric of society.”

The difference, Kirk argued, was moral. The American Revolution was rooted in ordered liberty; the French in ideological frenzy. The first produced a Constitution; the second, a guillotine.

The Money Printer Is Coming Back—And Trump Is Taking Over the Fed

December 9, 2025 • Lau Vegys

And Trump now seems ready to install someone who shares his appetite for lower rates and easier money.

He was referring to one Kevin Hassett, who—according to a recent Bloomberg report—has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to become the next Fed chair.

Waiting for Jerome

December 9, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Spoiler: he can’t. But that does not stop us from waiting.

Tomorrow, he is expected to deliver the December rate cut. Polymarket odds sit at 96% for a dainty 25-point cut.

Trump, Navarro and Lutnick pine for 50 points.

And somewhere in the wings smiles Kevin Hassett — at 74% odds this morning, the presumed Powell successor — watching the last few snowflakes fall before his cue arrives.

Deep Value Going Global in 2026

December 9, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

On a valuation basis, global markets will likely show better returns than U.S. stocks in 2026.

America leads the world in innovation. A U.S. tech stock will naturally fetch a higher price than, say, a German brewery. But value matters, too.