Ultimately, as the one-two punch of “bad news equals good news on Wall Street” – inflation and employment data – kicked retail investors into gear, all three major indexes nudged to new record highs.
The S&P 500 is now up 31% in just five months, the third-largest five-month gain in the last two decades.
Since April’s low, the market has added $16.6 trillion in value — more than the size of every other stock market in the world, except the U.S.
At the start of 2025, Deutsche Bank said the S&P could hit 7,000. Tariffs derailed that call, forcing the bank to lower expectations — then raise them back — and now, in a full circle, they’re calling for 7,000 again.
Markets love a redemption story, but it doesn’t change the underlying fragility.
Behind the euphoria lies the same question we’ve been asking since March: are these new highs the product of a healthy economy, or are they the byproduct of FOMO and retirement planning desperation, masked as momentum? Features of the terrifying bull market of 2025?
The Cost of Bacon and Coffee 
The official BLS figure revealed annual inflation rose to 2.9% in August, the highest month-over-month increase since January.
Year-over-year, roasted coffee is up 21.7%, beef steaks 16.6%, eggs 10.9%, and bacon 7.2%. Hospital services and car insurance were flat, and shelter costs are slowing.
Data now shows tariffs have forced up prices for furnishings, appliances, recreational goods, and apparel. Walmart, Target, and Best Buy have all confirmed defensively: tariffs get passed along to consumers.
Jobless claims also hit their worst level since 2021, leaving the Fed boxed in. The betting site Polymarket now shows 87% of gamblers are anticipating a quarter point rate cut.
AI’s Jackpot 
OpenAI is inching closer to becoming history’s most profitable startup, with its nonprofit parent in line for a $100 billion-plus equity valuation.
Oracle, meanwhile, shocked the Street with news of $455 billion in new AI-cloud contracts, quadruple the amount booked a year ago.
Most of that comes from OpenAI itself, which agreed to pay $300 billion – which it doesn’t have yet – over the next five years.
For Oracle’s Larry Ellison, the deal briefly made him the richest man on the planet, eclipsing Elon Musk.
But the whole story rests on whether ChatGPT’s growth curve continues without interruption.
The Ellison family, which owns 100% Skydance Paramount, is already flexing its muscle. Just weeks after sealing the long-delayed merger of Paramount and Skydance, the new media empire is preparing a majority cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The prospect of an Ellison-controlled takeover sent Warner Bros. Discovery shares up nearly 29% and Paramount Skydance up more than 15%. For management at Warner Bros.
Discovery had been planning to split the company in two. The Ellisons seem to believe that bigger is better — and they’re willing to bankroll it.
NATO on Edge 
It almost seems like a footnote today: Russia’s Zapad exercises with Belarus began today, coming just days after Russian drones strayed into Polish airspace and were shot down by NATO allies.
Warsaw called it an “act of aggression,” and NATO held emergency consultations under Article 4. Poland’s prime minister said it’s “the closest we have been to open conflict since World War II.”
Charlie Kirk Suspect Apprehended 
Overnight, police arrested a 22-year-old Utah man named Tyler Robinson in connection with the assassination of Charlie Kirk. Investigators recovered a bolt-action rifle and linked him to the scene through prints and surveillance.
The manhunt lasted more than 24 hours and generated over 7,000 leads. President Trump announced the arrest, calling it “with a high degree of certainty” the right suspect.
The words “Hey, fascist! Catch!” and “Bella ciao” and other various pro-transgender messages have been reported to be inscribed on some cartridges found after the shooting.
“Kirk was killed,” one reader commented in the chat box during Grey Swan Live! yesterday, “because he was successfully converting young progressives into conservatives.” Replay for Grey Swan Live! details below.
Capitalism’s Confidence Crisis 
A September Gallup poll found that only 54% of Americans now view capitalism favorably — the lowest number since Gallup began tracking it in 2010.
Nearly half the country, 46%, reported an unfavorable or mixed view.
That mistrust doesn’t exist in a vacuum.
Porter Stansberry warned on X this morning, inflation corrodes the very glue of civil society:
Not many Americans understand the correlation between soaring government debt & spending and the rise in violence, radicalized politics, and all kinds of social ‘weirdness.’ Inflation undermines the stability of civil society because it erodes the incentives for hard work, thrift, and tolerance. And, when the government grows this powerful, it dwarfs all of the other institutions in our society. Controlling the government becomes a blood sport, because it controls everything else.
We paraphrase from Porter: In a democracy where only about 10% of the population ends up paying for virtually all of government spending; where government (at all levels) equals 40% of GDP; where federal transfer payments are the largest source of income in 53% of the counties; and where there’s absolutely no limit to spending thanks to the printing press — both parties are in a “race to the bottom.”
Since the Global Financial Crisis and the dawn of “quantitative easing,” it has been clear that America has ceased to be the land of the free. Rather, we have become the world’s most dangerous socialist government. Unless tax policy and entitlements are drastically reformed, suffering will only deepen.
Three radical, but simple, reforms:
- If you work for taxpayers — or don’t pay at least $xxxx in taxes — then you don’t vote.
- A balanced budget amendment requiring 90% approval in both houses for any deficit spending.
- A return to a fundamental limit on money and credit: bank deposits backed by oil, gold, or bitcoin.
“Unlimited suffrage + unlimited spending + paper money = the collapse of civil society within 50 years. And guess what? We are there.”
Porter also believes the current state of monetary reset has created the most asymmetric trade we’ll see in our lifetimes.
You’ll notice we’ve been sending e-mails with his presentation on the trade. It will be worth your time to consider his point of view.
Howard Lutnick’s Two Stories 
Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, sits at the nexus of finance and politics.
Today, he’s a billionaire and a key figure in Trump’s transition team, shaping plans to balance the budget and restructure America’s debt. He speaks forcefully about inflation, trade, and entitlement reform.
But Lutnick’s other story is harder, more human.
On September 11, 2001, Cantor Fitzgerald occupied the top floors of the North Tower. The firm lost 658 employees — two-thirds of its workforce.
Lutnick himself survived only because he was walking his son to kindergarten that morning. He spent the following days reading names of the dead, fielding calls from grieving families, and trying to keep the firm alive.
That trauma reshaped his leadership.
The firm rebuilt, slowly and painfully, and remains a player in global markets today. But for Lutnick, every financial calculation carries the weight of those lives lost. He straddles two worlds: the sharp-edged dealmaking of today’s Washington and Wall Street, and the permanent scar of 9/11.
And now he’s part of Trump’s effort to rewire America’s political economy — a project that stretches well beyond tariffs.
Stefan Bartl, writing in AIER, is incredulous at Trump’s celebration of “Washington’s intrusion into corporate ownership.” The president has boasted of taking a “golden share” in U.S. Steel and, most recently, a 10% stake worth $11 billion in Intel.
“Transplanting swamp creatures from Washington into corporate boardrooms does not end corruption, but entrenches it,” Bartl warns.
The_Real_Fly on X is equally puzzled:
Bureaucrats becoming shareholders in the nation’s industrial backbone is not a strategy for strength; it is a marker of systemic weakness, an extension of institutional failure… and a lack of foresight.
Not a moment too soon, NASA’s Perseverance rover may have discovered the clearest evidence yet of life on Mars: a mineral pattern in a rock sample, one that on Earth usually comes from living organisms.
Scientists are cautious — it’s not definitive — but the possibility is breathtaking. No word yet on whether NASA has also found Matt Damon.
~Addison
P.S. Apparently, if we don’t blame one side, then we must, by default, be letting our bias “color” articles. Or, so reader Michael S. believes:
When our democracy is functioning as the founders intended, most people believe that if something is wrong, they can correct it at the ballot box.
But when one man essentially takes over all three branches of government, begins rigging the upcoming election through gerrymandering, and unleashes the military on its own citizens under the pretext of “fighting crime” (which is the job of the police), some people lose all hope.
They conclude that only violence will bring about change. Thus, this horrible act was brought about by Trump himself and his allies. Every mass shooter has been a right-wing extremist, not a “radical leftist” as Trump said. He even blamed Joe Biden for the attempt at Butler when, in fact, the shooter was a far-right Republican.
The victims have been people of color and Democrats. So please stop letting your biases color these articles.
In regard to the question you asked on today’s podcast (I had to leave early), Charlie Kirk may have been targeted because he supports a depraved and evil man and went around the country trying to convince young people that he was good. All I can say is may God have mercy on his soul.
Such as the state of discourse today.
Karl Rove used to call them “wedge issues” where voters are forced to choose one side or the other. Today, the wedge, according to Michael, extends to murder.
How about, maybe, we don’t commit murder?
P.P.S. We do apologize, even Grey Swan Live! began with an unplanned and distracting conversation about the life and impact of Charlie Kirk. If you also had to leave Grey Swan Live! early, you can access the replay here.
Mark Jeftovic took us on a deep dive into the crypto market, showcasing a number of cryptocurrency projects that have real-world use cases and could see a big move in the months ahead as the Fed kicks off interest rate cuts.
If you’re not a paid member of the Grey Swan Investment Fraternity, you can review the benefits of becoming one here.
If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.
