We didn’t know Charlie Kirk. But we know enough people who liked him and suggested we would, too, to think they’re probably right.
From what we’ve learned, Kirk encouraged peaceful dialogue, defended his beliefs, believed in the free market, and wanted young people in America to share in its promise.
For that, he was assassinated yesterday at a town hall-style meeting at Utah Valley University.
Kirk, 31, founded Turning Point USA as a teenager and grew it into one of the most influential conservative youth groups in the country. He hosted a popular podcast, allied himself closely with Donald Trump, and pushed to bring the free-market ethos to younger generations. His daily 3-hour podcast was averaging some 750,000 downloads.
Dr. Robert Malone wrote this epithet about Charlie Kirk to his readers today:
“Wikipedia calls him a ‘right-wing political activist.’ That is a gross distortion and over-simplification. Speaking personally, I am deeply saddened and impacted by this assassination. I believe that Charlie was a future president and a gifted communicator, with a remarkably agile mind coupled to a deep commitment to Christianity, the United States, and to the founding principles of this country. His mind was a beacon, and his heart was pure and kind.
His assassination was an act of political violence, one that I think is on par with the notable domestic U.S. political assassinations of the 1960s.”
Malone goes on to liken the assassination of Charlie Kirk to Martin Luther King Jr. in its magnitude and influence on the political culture today.
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson wrote to his own followers on social media, “Celebrating the death of someone you don’t share the same beliefs as is wild,” Smith wrote on X. “Seeing it play out in real time is disgusting.”
The FBI released its initial suspect last night after interrogation. The investigation continues.
That political violence was our #1 Grey Swan forecast for 2025 is irrelevant. Now, it’s more like an observation.
2025 has seen a lot.
From the attempted assassinations of Donald Trump, to the murder of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson, to Teslas burned in protest of Elon Musk, political violence is not a relic of 60s.
Violence is a pathology of our present.
Oracle’s Jackpot 
The company you mostly know from “your session timed out” screens just staged one of the most jaw-dropping rallies in market history. Oracle announced hundreds of billions in contracted cloud revenue tied to the AI boom — and investors went berserk.
Shares jumped as much as 43% before settling to a still-historic 36% gain, the company’s best single-day performance in more than 30 years.
Some details that left analysts “in shock,” per CNBC:
- Oracle booked $455 billion in contracts last quarter, a 4X increase from a year earlier.
- OpenAI alone is reportedly committing $300 billion over five years for Oracle’s cloud services.
- Oracle expects to grow infrastructure revenue from $10 billion last year to $144 billion by 2030.
The rally briefly made co-founder Larry Ellison the richest man in the world. His fortune jumped $100 billion in a single morning to $393 billion — enough to edge past Elon Musk, at least for a day.
That Oracle’s fate now rests on the exponential success of ChatGPT and friends is either a remarkable testament to AI’s promise — or a red flag for how frothy this bubble has become.
A Dangerous Border 
NATO held emergency talks yesterday after Polish and Dutch jets shot down Russian drones that crossed into Polish airspace. The drones were part of Moscow’s bombardment of Ukraine, but their incursion into NATO territory sparked alarm.
The talks were held under Article 4 of the NATO treaty, which allows members to raise security concerns — short of invoking Article 5’s mutual defense clause.
Russia insisted it had no intention of targeting Poland. But the Polish prime minister was blunt: “This situation brings us the closest we have been to open conflict since World War II.”
For now, the alliance is stopping short of escalation. But the episode underscores how fragile the line between proxy war and open confrontation has become.
Who’s Sitting at the Fed’s Table? 
The Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate-setting meeting just got more complicated.
A federal judge ruled Tuesday that Fed Governor Lisa Cook can keep her seat for now, blocking Trump’s attempt to fire her over contested mortgage-fraud allegations.
Trump immediately filed an appeal, while also pushing his nominee Stephen Miran through the Senate Banking Committee. Miran, a Trump loyalist and architect of tariff policy, awaits a full Senate vote.
Markets expect the Fed to cut rates next week — Trump has been openly pressuring for it. With the governor’s roster in flux and political heat rising, the question is whether the Fed is still independent, or just another agency folded into the “realignment.”
Pokémon vs. the S&P 
Think your best investment was buying Nvidia in 1999? Maybe. But Pokémon cards have a case.
Since 2004, the trading cards have racked up a cumulative return of ~3,821%, according to Card Ladder. That crushes the S&P 500’s 483% gain and even Meta’s 1,844% since going public.
Rare cards like Charizard have sold for millions. And unlike baseball cards, Pokémon has the advantage of not being tied to real-world reputations.
But there’s risk, too. Prices are unregulated and speculative. Which means Pokémon, in its own way, might be the perfect symbol of our age: part nostalgia, part mania, part market distortion. Definitely a feature of the terrifying bull market we’re in.
The Culture of Assassination
Twenty-four years ago, today, nearly 3,000 people died in the 9/11 terrorist attacks. But the toll hasn’t stopped. The FDNY has now lost more members to 9/11-related illnesses than it did on the day itself. This week, the department added 39 names to its Memorial Wall, bringing the total to 402.
Mayor Eric Adams spoke plainly: “We need to humanize what happened those 24 years ago and not allow time to erode how significant it was. The countless number of men and women ran towards danger, and we’re still losing their lives every day.”
America’s story, from Lincoln to JFK to 9/11 to now, is scarred by episodes of violence that rupture legitimacy. Each event has reshaped institutions, politics, and markets.
And in the age of hyper-partisan politics, global debt, and technological acceleration.
Today, on Grey Swan Live! with Mark Jeftovic, we’ll be discussing what he calls the “Great Bifurcation,” or the rapid acceleration of economic inequality.
In our limited view, there is a direct line between economic inequality and political violence. In the case of people cheering online for Charlie Kirk’s death, it’s perverse and grotesque.
~ Addison
P.S. If you missed Grey Swan Live! at 2 p.m. today, Mark Jeftovic joined us to dissect the “Shadow Fed” and the American Dream. We’ll post a replay and a transcript for our paid-up members soon.
Until then, we just posted new special reports on our website. You can check them out here.
Your thoughts? Please send them here: feedback@greyswanfraternity.
