Air Pocket

Markets hit an air pocket yesterday. The Nasdaq took the brunt, dropping over 1.3% — its largest move in weeks.

The reason? Take your pick. However, looking through the damage, the stocks that were most impacted were some of the market’s best performers year-to-date.

The poster child for yesterday’s selloff was Palantir Technologies (PLTR), which dropped nearly 10%.

Overall, it’s down 16% from all-time highs, and in trading today may officially drop 20%, putting the stock into its own bear market.

If only someone could have predicted this! Oh wait…

Turn Your Images On

CNBC’s Jim Cramer, whose timing couldn’t be worse, has already been the source of several funds — although those funds do the opposite of what Cramer says.

In terms of performance over the past five years, taking the inverse Cramer trade has been almost as good as just following the trades of Nancy Pelosi.

Mind the Gap

There’s another reason to discuss Palantir’s recent move — this wasn’t just tradable to inverse Cramer.

Following Palantir’s earnings report, shares jumped higher. One nanosecond, shares traded near the $150 range. As earnings dropped, shares jumped to $170.

That creates a gap in the share price. And in the trading world, gaps exist to be filled.

Combined with the fact that companies that jump higher on earnings tend to give back at least some of those gains in the weeks ahead, we targeted a short position on Palantir in our new advisory service, Grey Swan Trading Fraternity.

We bought a put option. That’s a low-risk way to bet on a short-term decline in price.

Initially, the trade worked against us as Palantir shares ground higher for a few days after earnings.

But sure enough, the share price weakened before hitting that air pocket yesterday.

I wrote in the alert to subscribers:

Remember, Palantir is one of the top stocks of the past two years, with the stock up as much as 10X.

So we just pulled off some big bragging rights by making a profit shorting it — and I expect we’ll have more opportunities to make money with options trades on this stock.

All told, based on our official entry and exit points, subscribers made about a 30% return.

Our official trading prices are usually based on the price of the trade as the email send goes out – so it’s likely that most subscribers fared even better as Palantir shares slid even further yesterday afternoon.

If you were able to make this trade, we’d love to hear from you. Shoot us a message at Addison@GreySwanFraternity.com.

The important thing isn’t this one trade.

It’s the idea of concepts like gap fills and retracing part of a big move. Those types of events happen all the time in stocks, and it offers a repeatable opportunity to make profitable trades with stock options.

The Air Pocket Comes for “Cheap Chic”

It’s a busy week for retail earnings. Home Depot (HD) reported yesterday. Sales were weak, but the company affirmed its full-year guidance.

The housing market remains largely frozen, but homeowners continue to maintain their homes and work on home projects.

That can’t be said for retailer Target (TGT)…

While the king of “cheap chic” managed to beat low expectations, sales continued to decline, with a 0.9% drop in the most recent quarter.

Shares dropped about 10% on the news — which also included the tidbit that the company CEO would be out as of February 2026.

A 10% drop on a 0.9% decline in sales feels very much like an overreaction. But Target’s sales have been lackluster for years. If anything, shares should be popping on the news of fresh leadership.

This may be another tradeable opportunity, especially as shares were already trading at 12 times earnings, and earnings amply cover the company’s 4.3% dividend.

The real question is whether consumer spending continues to slowly trend lower — or if we run into a financial crisis and consumer spending really takes a dive.

A Jackson Hole Nothingburger?

The markets are jittery this week. Partly, that’s seasonality. Partly, it’s from the strong rally that’s been going on since late April.

And partly, it’s in anticipation of Jerome Powell’s speech at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium this week.

Will Powell blast President Trump? Probably not, he isn’t the type.

Will Powell talk up Fed independence? That’s more likely.

Will Powell resign? That seems unlikely.

In short, this Friday’s meeting may prove to be a nothingburger — and if so, this week’s market jitters may give way to a small bit of relief next week.

Given how markets are volatile this time of year anyway, however, don’t expect a big move higher — and continue to expect your portfolio to have some down days for a change.

Age Bias Hits the Home Markets

Fortune reports that in 2024, there were more homebuyers in their 70s than in their 30s.

Turn Your Images On

We’ll just note that today’s 70-year-olds can get their full Social Security benefits, which top out at $5,108 per month.

And we’ll also point out that the average working 30-year-old is paying 7.65% of their gross salary into Social Security — a rate that’s matched by employers, so the real tax rate is 15.3%.

There’s something about this that reminds me of the old Greek proverb:

A society grows great when old men plant trees in whose shade they know they shall never sit.

Today’s version? Buying homes with fully-grown trees already.

Is it any wonder why today’s 20- and 30-somethings are below other generations in terms of buying homes and starting families?

Savings are gobbled up by inflation. Tech stocks can turn on a dime.

Assets that can hold their value over the long haul, like homes, are being bought up by parents and grandparents — not to mention corporations with access to cheap capital.

It’s just another sign of the air pockets in markets — and a warning that things aren’t going as well as they seem.

~ Andrew

P.S. Grey Swan Live! returns tomorrow. We’ll be joined by Matt Clark, Chief Research Analyst at Money & Markets, one of our corporate affiliates.

Matt’s role is similar to mine as Portfolio Director — finding new investment opportunities and sifting through ever-shifting markets.

Matt has a background as an investigative journalist — but more importantly, he’s the only person I know who can find data and precise numbers faster than I can.

With markets hitting an air pocket this week and all eyes on Jackson Hole, this will be a timely and critical chat — exclusively for our paid-up Fraternity members.

Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com.

Markets hit an air pocket yesterday. The Nasdaq took the brunt, dropping over 1.3% — its largest move in weeks.

The reason? Take your pick. However, looking through the damage, the stocks that were most impacted were some of the market’s best performers year-to-date.

The poster child for yesterday’s selloff was Palantir Technologies (PLTR), which dropped nearly 10%.

Overall, it’s down 16% from all-time highs, and in trading today may officially drop 20%, putting the stock into its own bear market.

If only someone could have predicted this! Oh wait…

Turn Your Images On

CNBC’s Jim Cramer, whose timing couldn’t be worse, has already been the source of several funds — although those funds do the opposite of what Cramer says.

In terms of performance over the past five years, taking the inverse Cramer trade has been almost as good as just following the trades of Nancy Pelosi.

Mind the Gap

There’s another reason to discuss Palantir’s recent move — this wasn’t just tradable to inverse Cramer.

Following Palantir’s earnings report, shares jumped higher. One nanosecond, shares traded near the $150 range. As earnings dropped, shares jumped to $170.

That creates a gap in the share price. And in the trading world, gaps exist to be filled.

We bought a put option. That’s a low-risk way to bet on a short-term decline in price.

Initially, the trade worked against us as Palantir shares ground higher for a few days after earnings.

But sure enough, the share price weakened before hitting that air pocket yesterday.

I wrote in the alert to subscribers:

Remember, Palantir is one of the top stocks of the past two years, with the stock up as much as 10X.

So we just pulled off some big bragging rights by making a profit shorting it — and I expect we’ll have more opportunities to make money with options trades on this stock.

All told, based on our official entry and exit points, subscribers made about a 30% return.

If you were able to make this trade, we’d love to hear from you. Shoot us a message at Addison@GreySwanFraternity.com.

The important thing isn’t this one trade.

The Air Pocket Comes for “Cheap Chic”

It’s a busy week for retail earnings. Home Depot (HD) reported yesterday. Sales were weak, but the company affirmed its full-year guidance.

The housing market remains largely frozen, but homeowners continue to maintain their homes and work on home projects.

That can’t be said for retailer Target (TGT)…

While the king of “cheap chic” managed to beat low expectations, sales continued to decline, with a 0.9% drop in the most recent quarter.

Shares dropped about 10% on the news — which also included the tidbit that the company CEO would be out as of February 2026.

A 10% drop on a 0.9% decline in sales feels very much like an overreaction. But Target’s sales have been lackluster for years. If anything, shares should be popping on the news of fresh leadership.

This may be another tradeable opportunity, especially as shares were already trading at 12 times earnings, and earnings amply cover the company’s 4.3% dividend.

The real question is whether consumer spending continues to slowly trend lower — or if we run into a financial crisis and consumer spending really takes a dive.

A Jackson Hole Nothingburger?

The markets are jittery this week. Partly, that’s seasonality. Partly, it’s from the strong rally that’s been going on since late April.

And partly, it’s in anticipation of Jerome Powell’s speech at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium this week.

Will Powell blast President Trump? Probably not, he isn’t the type.

Will Powell talk up Fed independence? That’s more likely.

Will Powell resign? That seems unlikely.

In short, this Friday’s meeting may prove to be a nothingburger — and if so, this week’s market jitters may give way to a small bit of relief next week.

Given how markets are volatile this time of year anyway, however, don’t expect a big move higher — and continue to expect your portfolio to have some down days for a change.

Age Bias Hits the Home Markets

Fortune reports that in 2024, there were more homebuyers in their 70s than in their 30s.

Turn Your Images On

We’ll just note that today’s 70-year-olds can get their full Social Security benefits, which top out at $5,108 per month.

And we’ll also point out that the average working 30-year-old is paying 7.65% of their gross salary into Social Security — a rate that’s matched by employers, so the real tax rate is 15.3%.

There’s something about this that reminds me of the old Greek proverb:

A society grows great when old men plant trees in whose shade they know they shall never sit.

Today’s version? Buying homes with fully-grown trees already.

Is it any wonder why today’s 20- and 30-somethings are below other generations in terms of buying homes and starting families?

Savings are gobbled up by inflation. Tech stocks can turn on a dime.

Assets that can hold their value over the long haul, like homes, are being bought up by parents and grandparents — not to mention corporations with access to cheap capital.

It’s just another sign of the air pockets in markets — and a warning that things aren’t going as well as they seem.

~ Andrew

P.S. Grey Swan Live! returns tomorrow. We’ll be joined by Matt Clark, Chief Research Analyst at Money & Markets, one of our corporate affiliates.

Matt’s role is similar to mine as Portfolio Director — finding new investment opportunities and sifting through ever-shifting markets.

Matt has a background as an investigative journalist — but more importantly, he’s the only person I know who can find data and precise numbers faster than I can.

With markets hitting an air pocket this week and all eyes on Jackson Hole, this will be a timely and critical chat — exclusively for our paid-up Fraternity members.

Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com.

Our forecast will feel obvious in hindsight and controversial in advance — the hallmark of a Grey Swan.

Most analysts we speak to are thinking in terms of the history of Western conflict.

They expect full-frontal military engagement.

Beijing, from our modest perch, prefers resolution because resolution compounds its power. Why sacrifice the workshop of the world, when cajoling and bribery will do?

Taiwan will not fall.

It will merge.

Wars, technology races, and political upheavals — all of them rest on fiscal capacity.

In 2026, that capacity will tighten across the developed world simultaneously. Democracies will discover that generosity financed by debt carries conditions, whether voters approve of them or not.

Bond markets will not shout so much as clear their throats. Repeatedly.

Taken together, the seven Grey Swans of 2025 behaved less like isolated events and more like interlocking stories readers already recognize.

The year moved in phases. A sharp April selloff cleared leverage quickly. Policy shifted toward tax relief, lighter regulation, and renewed tolerance for liquidity. Innovations began to slowly dominate the marketplace conversation – from Dollar 2.0 digital assets to AI-powered applications in all manner of commercial enterprises, ranging from airline and hotel bookings to driverless taxis and robots.

Back in April, when we published what we called the Trump Great Reset Strategy, we described the grand realignment we believed President Trump and his acolytes were embarking on in three phases.

At the time, it read like a conceptual map. As the months passed, it began to feel like a set of operating instructions written in advance of turbulence.

As you can expect, any grandiose plan would get all kinds of blowback… but this year exhibited all manner of Trump Derangement Syndrome on top of the difficulty of steering a sclerotic empire clear of the rocky shores.

The “phases” were never about optimism or pessimism. They were about sequencing — how stress surfaces, how systems adapt, and what must hold before confidence can regenerate. And in the end, what do we do with our money?!

Our forecast will feel obvious in hindsight and controversial in advance — the hallmark of a Grey Swan.

Most analysts we speak to are thinking in terms of the history of Western conflict.

They expect full-frontal military engagement.

Beijing, from our modest perch, prefers resolution because resolution compounds its power. Why sacrifice the workshop of the world, when cajoling and bribery will do?

Taiwan will not fall.

It will merge.

Wars, technology races, and political upheavals — all of them rest on fiscal capacity.

In 2026, that capacity will tighten across the developed world simultaneously. Democracies will discover that generosity financed by debt carries conditions, whether voters approve of them or not.

Bond markets will not shout so much as clear their throats. Repeatedly.

Taken together, the seven Grey Swans of 2025 behaved less like isolated events and more like interlocking stories readers already recognize.

Back in April, when we published what we called the Trump Great Reset Strategy, we described the grand realignment we believed President Trump and his acolytes were embarking on in three phases.

At the time, it read like a conceptual map. As the months passed, it began to feel like a set of operating instructions written in advance of turbulence.