Air Pocket

Markets hit an air pocket yesterday. The Nasdaq took the brunt, dropping over 1.3% — its largest move in weeks.

The reason? Take your pick. However, looking through the damage, the stocks that were most impacted were some of the market’s best performers year-to-date.

The poster child for yesterday’s selloff was Palantir Technologies (PLTR), which dropped nearly 10%.

Overall, it’s down 16% from all-time highs, and in trading today may officially drop 20%, putting the stock into its own bear market.

If only someone could have predicted this! Oh wait…

Turn Your Images On

CNBC’s Jim Cramer, whose timing couldn’t be worse, has already been the source of several funds — although those funds do the opposite of what Cramer says.

In terms of performance over the past five years, taking the inverse Cramer trade has been almost as good as just following the trades of Nancy Pelosi.

Mind the Gap

There’s another reason to discuss Palantir’s recent move — this wasn’t just tradable to inverse Cramer.

Following Palantir’s earnings report, shares jumped higher. One nanosecond, shares traded near the $150 range. As earnings dropped, shares jumped to $170.

That creates a gap in the share price. And in the trading world, gaps exist to be filled.

Combined with the fact that companies that jump higher on earnings tend to give back at least some of those gains in the weeks ahead, we targeted a short position on Palantir in our new advisory service, Grey Swan Trading Fraternity.

We bought a put option. That’s a low-risk way to bet on a short-term decline in price.

Initially, the trade worked against us as Palantir shares ground higher for a few days after earnings.

But sure enough, the share price weakened before hitting that air pocket yesterday.

I wrote in the alert to subscribers:

Remember, Palantir is one of the top stocks of the past two years, with the stock up as much as 10X.

So we just pulled off some big bragging rights by making a profit shorting it — and I expect we’ll have more opportunities to make money with options trades on this stock.

All told, based on our official entry and exit points, subscribers made about a 30% return.

Our official trading prices are usually based on the price of the trade as the email send goes out – so it’s likely that most subscribers fared even better as Palantir shares slid even further yesterday afternoon.

If you were able to make this trade, we’d love to hear from you. Shoot us a message at Addison@GreySwanFraternity.com.

The important thing isn’t this one trade.

It’s the idea of concepts like gap fills and retracing part of a big move. Those types of events happen all the time in stocks, and it offers a repeatable opportunity to make profitable trades with stock options.

The Air Pocket Comes for “Cheap Chic”

It’s a busy week for retail earnings. Home Depot (HD) reported yesterday. Sales were weak, but the company affirmed its full-year guidance.

The housing market remains largely frozen, but homeowners continue to maintain their homes and work on home projects.

That can’t be said for retailer Target (TGT)…

While the king of “cheap chic” managed to beat low expectations, sales continued to decline, with a 0.9% drop in the most recent quarter.

Shares dropped about 10% on the news — which also included the tidbit that the company CEO would be out as of February 2026.

A 10% drop on a 0.9% decline in sales feels very much like an overreaction. But Target’s sales have been lackluster for years. If anything, shares should be popping on the news of fresh leadership.

This may be another tradeable opportunity, especially as shares were already trading at 12 times earnings, and earnings amply cover the company’s 4.3% dividend.

The real question is whether consumer spending continues to slowly trend lower — or if we run into a financial crisis and consumer spending really takes a dive.

A Jackson Hole Nothingburger?

The markets are jittery this week. Partly, that’s seasonality. Partly, it’s from the strong rally that’s been going on since late April.

And partly, it’s in anticipation of Jerome Powell’s speech at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium this week.

Will Powell blast President Trump? Probably not, he isn’t the type.

Will Powell talk up Fed independence? That’s more likely.

Will Powell resign? That seems unlikely.

In short, this Friday’s meeting may prove to be a nothingburger — and if so, this week’s market jitters may give way to a small bit of relief next week.

Given how markets are volatile this time of year anyway, however, don’t expect a big move higher — and continue to expect your portfolio to have some down days for a change.

Age Bias Hits the Home Markets

Fortune reports that in 2024, there were more homebuyers in their 70s than in their 30s.

Turn Your Images On

We’ll just note that today’s 70-year-olds can get their full Social Security benefits, which top out at $5,108 per month.

And we’ll also point out that the average working 30-year-old is paying 7.65% of their gross salary into Social Security — a rate that’s matched by employers, so the real tax rate is 15.3%.

There’s something about this that reminds me of the old Greek proverb:

A society grows great when old men plant trees in whose shade they know they shall never sit.

Today’s version? Buying homes with fully-grown trees already.

Is it any wonder why today’s 20- and 30-somethings are below other generations in terms of buying homes and starting families?

Savings are gobbled up by inflation. Tech stocks can turn on a dime.

Assets that can hold their value over the long haul, like homes, are being bought up by parents and grandparents — not to mention corporations with access to cheap capital.

It’s just another sign of the air pockets in markets — and a warning that things aren’t going as well as they seem.

~ Andrew

P.S. Grey Swan Live! returns tomorrow. We’ll be joined by Matt Clark, Chief Research Analyst at Money & Markets, one of our corporate affiliates.

Matt’s role is similar to mine as Portfolio Director — finding new investment opportunities and sifting through ever-shifting markets.

Matt has a background as an investigative journalist — but more importantly, he’s the only person I know who can find data and precise numbers faster than I can.

With markets hitting an air pocket this week and all eyes on Jackson Hole, this will be a timely and critical chat — exclusively for our paid-up Fraternity members.

Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com.

Markets hit an air pocket yesterday. The Nasdaq took the brunt, dropping over 1.3% — its largest move in weeks.

The reason? Take your pick. However, looking through the damage, the stocks that were most impacted were some of the market’s best performers year-to-date.

The poster child for yesterday’s selloff was Palantir Technologies (PLTR), which dropped nearly 10%.

Overall, it’s down 16% from all-time highs, and in trading today may officially drop 20%, putting the stock into its own bear market.

If only someone could have predicted this! Oh wait…

Turn Your Images On

CNBC’s Jim Cramer, whose timing couldn’t be worse, has already been the source of several funds — although those funds do the opposite of what Cramer says.

In terms of performance over the past five years, taking the inverse Cramer trade has been almost as good as just following the trades of Nancy Pelosi.

Mind the Gap

There’s another reason to discuss Palantir’s recent move — this wasn’t just tradable to inverse Cramer.

Following Palantir’s earnings report, shares jumped higher. One nanosecond, shares traded near the $150 range. As earnings dropped, shares jumped to $170.

That creates a gap in the share price. And in the trading world, gaps exist to be filled.

We bought a put option. That’s a low-risk way to bet on a short-term decline in price.

Initially, the trade worked against us as Palantir shares ground higher for a few days after earnings.

But sure enough, the share price weakened before hitting that air pocket yesterday.

I wrote in the alert to subscribers:

Remember, Palantir is one of the top stocks of the past two years, with the stock up as much as 10X.

So we just pulled off some big bragging rights by making a profit shorting it — and I expect we’ll have more opportunities to make money with options trades on this stock.

All told, based on our official entry and exit points, subscribers made about a 30% return.

If you were able to make this trade, we’d love to hear from you. Shoot us a message at Addison@GreySwanFraternity.com.

The important thing isn’t this one trade.

The Air Pocket Comes for “Cheap Chic”

It’s a busy week for retail earnings. Home Depot (HD) reported yesterday. Sales were weak, but the company affirmed its full-year guidance.

The housing market remains largely frozen, but homeowners continue to maintain their homes and work on home projects.

That can’t be said for retailer Target (TGT)…

While the king of “cheap chic” managed to beat low expectations, sales continued to decline, with a 0.9% drop in the most recent quarter.

Shares dropped about 10% on the news — which also included the tidbit that the company CEO would be out as of February 2026.

A 10% drop on a 0.9% decline in sales feels very much like an overreaction. But Target’s sales have been lackluster for years. If anything, shares should be popping on the news of fresh leadership.

This may be another tradeable opportunity, especially as shares were already trading at 12 times earnings, and earnings amply cover the company’s 4.3% dividend.

The real question is whether consumer spending continues to slowly trend lower — or if we run into a financial crisis and consumer spending really takes a dive.

A Jackson Hole Nothingburger?

The markets are jittery this week. Partly, that’s seasonality. Partly, it’s from the strong rally that’s been going on since late April.

And partly, it’s in anticipation of Jerome Powell’s speech at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium this week.

Will Powell blast President Trump? Probably not, he isn’t the type.

Will Powell talk up Fed independence? That’s more likely.

Will Powell resign? That seems unlikely.

In short, this Friday’s meeting may prove to be a nothingburger — and if so, this week’s market jitters may give way to a small bit of relief next week.

Given how markets are volatile this time of year anyway, however, don’t expect a big move higher — and continue to expect your portfolio to have some down days for a change.

Age Bias Hits the Home Markets

Fortune reports that in 2024, there were more homebuyers in their 70s than in their 30s.

Turn Your Images On

We’ll just note that today’s 70-year-olds can get their full Social Security benefits, which top out at $5,108 per month.

And we’ll also point out that the average working 30-year-old is paying 7.65% of their gross salary into Social Security — a rate that’s matched by employers, so the real tax rate is 15.3%.

There’s something about this that reminds me of the old Greek proverb:

A society grows great when old men plant trees in whose shade they know they shall never sit.

Today’s version? Buying homes with fully-grown trees already.

Is it any wonder why today’s 20- and 30-somethings are below other generations in terms of buying homes and starting families?

Savings are gobbled up by inflation. Tech stocks can turn on a dime.

Assets that can hold their value over the long haul, like homes, are being bought up by parents and grandparents — not to mention corporations with access to cheap capital.

It’s just another sign of the air pockets in markets — and a warning that things aren’t going as well as they seem.

~ Andrew

P.S. Grey Swan Live! returns tomorrow. We’ll be joined by Matt Clark, Chief Research Analyst at Money & Markets, one of our corporate affiliates.

Matt’s role is similar to mine as Portfolio Director — finding new investment opportunities and sifting through ever-shifting markets.

Matt has a background as an investigative journalist — but more importantly, he’s the only person I know who can find data and precise numbers faster than I can.

With markets hitting an air pocket this week and all eyes on Jackson Hole, this will be a timely and critical chat — exclusively for our paid-up Fraternity members.

Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com.

Trump and Powell are no buddies. They’ve been fighting over rate cuts all year—Trump demanding more, Powell holding back. Even after cutting twice, Trump called him “grossly incompetent” and said he’d “love to fire” him. The tension has been building for months.

And Trump now seems ready to install someone who shares his appetite for lower rates and easier money.

Trump has been dropping hints for weeks—saying on November 18, “I think I already know my choice,” and then doubling down last Sunday aboard Air Force One with, “I know who I am going to pick… we’ll be announcing it.”

He was referring to one Kevin Hassett, who—according to a recent Bloomberg report—has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to become the next Fed chair.

Here we sit — investors, analysts, retirees, accountants, even a few masochistic economists — gathered beneath the leafless monetary tree, rehearsing our lines as we wait for Jerome Powell to step onstage and tell us what the future means.

Spoiler: he can’t. But that does not stop us from waiting.

Tomorrow, he is expected to deliver the December rate cut. Polymarket odds sit at 96% for a dainty 25-point cut.

Trump, Navarro and Lutnick pine for 50 points.

And somewhere in the wings smiles Kevin Hassett — at 74% odds this morning, the presumed Powell successor — watching the last few snowflakes fall before his cue arrives.

With U.S. stocks trading at about 24 times forward earnings, plans for capital growth have to go off without a hitch. Given the billions of dollars in commitments by AI companies, financing to the hilt on debt, the most realistic outcome is a hitch.

On a valuation basis, global markets will likely show better returns than U.S. stocks in 2026.

America leads the world in innovation. A U.S. tech stock will naturally fetch a higher price than, say, a German brewery. But value matters, too.

As copper flowed into the United States, LME inventories thinned and backwardation steepened. Higher U.S. pricing, tariff protection, and lower political risk made American warehouses the most attractive destination for metal. Each new shipment strengthened the spread.

The arbitrage, once triggered, became self-reinforcing. Traders were not participating in theory; they were responding to the physical incentives in front of them.

The United States had quietly become the marginal buyer of the world’s most important industrial metal. China, long the gravitational center of global copper demand, found itself on the outside.

And Trump now seems ready to install someone who shares his appetite for lower rates and easier money.

He was referring to one Kevin Hassett, who—according to a recent Bloomberg report—has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to become the next Fed chair.

Spoiler: he can’t. But that does not stop us from waiting.

Tomorrow, he is expected to deliver the December rate cut. Polymarket odds sit at 96% for a dainty 25-point cut.

Trump, Navarro and Lutnick pine for 50 points.

And somewhere in the wings smiles Kevin Hassett — at 74% odds this morning, the presumed Powell successor — watching the last few snowflakes fall before his cue arrives.

On a valuation basis, global markets will likely show better returns than U.S. stocks in 2026.

America leads the world in innovation. A U.S. tech stock will naturally fetch a higher price than, say, a German brewery. But value matters, too.

The arbitrage, once triggered, became self-reinforcing. Traders were not participating in theory; they were responding to the physical incentives in front of them.

The United States had quietly become the marginal buyer of the world’s most important industrial metal. China, long the gravitational center of global copper demand, found itself on the outside.