Affordability, Meet Reflation

President Trump was in Detroit yesterday, touting the accomplishments of his second term.

Among the “affordability” measures he mentioned: Fannie Mae buying $200 billion in mortgage bonds to thaw out the housing market, a proposed 10% interest cap on individual credit cards for one year and the criminal probe against Jerome Powell, ostensibly because the Fed will not drop rates fast enough to meet Trump’s economic vision.

Similar market interventions were deployed during the Nixon, Ford and Carter administrations of the 1970s. The result: a stubborn battle to contain inflation.

Turn Your Images On

Inflation (gold line) continues to closely track the inflation of the 1970s (blue line). (Source: FX)

Today’s chart of inflation reflects an eerily similar path to the 1970s. The last CPI reading (gold line) ticked back up 2.7%. If prices today continue to track those of the 1970s, the next wave of inflation could see prices rise higher and faster than during the 2021/2022 bout.

Yesterday, gold notched another new record high of $4647. Its slimmer, svelte cousin, silver, set a new historic high of $92. Both monetary metals are reflecting the market fear that once inflation gets started, it’s very difficult to contain.

~ Addison

P.S. Tomorrow in Grey Swan Live! we’ll be joined by Shad Marquitz and take a close look at the precious metals market in 2026.

Turn Your Images On

In a brief discussion last week, Shad let slip his interest in one particular company that has labeled itself a gold and silver miner because of regulations that have restricted their sale of existing copper and antimony (used in drones and other defense tech).

Those restrictions are being lifted this month, along with other regulations that the Trump administration is trimming.

The details of this one company alone are telling for investors interested in capitalizing on the new retail interest in both precious metals and critical minerals. Shad’s an encyclopedia on the entire resource market. Every conversation yields a wealth of new market insights. Tomorrow’s Grey Swan Live! promises the same. Don’t miss it!

President Trump was in Detroit yesterday, touting the accomplishments of his second term.

Similar market interventions were deployed during the Nixon, Ford and Carter administrations of the 1970s. The result: a stubborn battle to contain inflation.

Turn Your Images On

Inflation (gold line) continues to closely track the inflation of the 1970s (blue line). (Source: FX)

~ Addison

P.S. Tomorrow in Grey Swan Live! we’ll be joined by Shad Marquitz and take a close look at the precious metals market in 2026.

Turn Your Images On

Those restrictions are being lifted this month, along with other regulations that the Trump administration is trimming.

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time. That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!