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Ripple Effect

About Yesterday’s Rally

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

October 29, 2025 • 1 minute, 18 second read


Breadth

About Yesterday’s Rally

Yesterday, on landmark deal announcements with Nokia and the U.S. Department of Energy, Nokia scooted up 5% bringing the S&P 500 index with it.

Good if you already own the stock.

Yesterday, also notched a less obvious record – its worst “breadth” day since 1990.

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Despite “the market” closing higher, nearly 300 of the 500 S&P 500 stocks traded lower. (Source: Bespoke Investment Group)

A high concentration of capital in a few stocks at the top ranks high among the features we detailed in Anatomy of a Stock Market Bubble.

On days like yesterday, headlines urge investors to buy. However, they also underscore the fragility of this terrifying bull market: just a handful of names can make the difference between a big up day and a big down day.

~ Addison

P.S. The Nvidia deal with the U.S. Energy Department is another minor feature of the Trump administration’s new strategic economic initiatives.

Tomorrow on Grey Swan Live! we’ll explore the rise of Trump’s economic nationalism and what it means for U.S. military readiness in the years ahead. Joining us is John Robb — our go-to analyst on the geopolitics of Trump’s tariff strategy, the global networked intifada, and the evolution of drone warfare in Ukraine.

A former consultant to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, John brings firsthand insight into how autonomous weapons and AI are reshaping modern strategy.

With markets rallying on optimism over a U.S.–China trade deal, he’ll pinpoint the next global flashpoints — and the investment opportunities emerging as technology transforms the defense industry.


Grey Swan Forecast #6: China Annexes Taiwan — Without a Shot Fired

December 26, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Our forecast will feel obvious in hindsight and controversial in advance — the hallmark of a Grey Swan.

Most analysts we speak to are thinking in terms of the history of Western conflict. 

They expect full-frontal military engagement.

Beijing, from our modest perch, prefers resolution because resolution compounds its power. Why sacrifice the workshop of the world, when cajoling and bribery will do?

Taiwan will not fall.

It will merge.

Grey Swan Forecast #6: China Annexes Taiwan — Without a Shot Fired
Grey Swan Forecast #7: A Global Debt Crisis Will Reprice Democracy

December 24, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Wars, technology races, and political upheavals — all of them rest on fiscal capacity.

In 2026, that capacity will tighten across the developed world simultaneously. Democracies will discover that generosity financed by debt carries conditions, whether voters approve of them or not.

Bond markets will not shout so much as clear their throats. Repeatedly.

Grey Swan Forecast #7: A Global Debt Crisis Will Reprice Democracy
Seven Grey Swans, One Year Later

December 23, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Taken together, the seven Grey Swans of 2025 behaved less like isolated events and more like interlocking stories readers already recognize.

The year moved in phases. A sharp April selloff cleared leverage quickly. Policy shifted toward tax relief, lighter regulation, and renewed tolerance for liquidity. Innovations began to slowly dominate the marketplace conversation – from Dollar 2.0 digital assets to AI-powered applications in all manner of commercial enterprises, ranging from airline and hotel bookings to driverless taxis and robots. 

Seven Grey Swans, One Year Later
2025: The Lens We Used — Fire, Transition, and What’s Next… The Boom!

December 22, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Back in April, when we published what we called the Trump Great Reset Strategy, we described the grand realignment we believed President Trump and his acolytes were embarking on in three phases.

At the time, it read like a conceptual map. As the months passed, it began to feel like a set of operating instructions written in advance of turbulence.

As you can expect, any grandiose plan would get all kinds of blowback… but this year exhibited all manner of Trump Derangement Syndrome on top of the difficulty of steering a sclerotic empire clear of the rocky shores.

The “phases” were never about optimism or pessimism. They were about sequencing — how stress surfaces, how systems adapt, and what must hold before confidence can regenerate. And in the end, what do we do with our money?!

2025: The Lens We Used — Fire, Transition, and What’s Next… The Boom!