About Yesterday’s Rally

Yesterday, on landmark deal announcements with Nokia and the U.S. Department of Energy, Nokia scooted up 5% bringing the S&P 500 index with it.

Good if you already own the stock.

Yesterday, also notched a less obvious record – its worst “breadth” day since 1990.

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Despite “the market” closing higher, nearly 300 of the 500 S&P 500 stocks traded lower. (Source: Bespoke Investment Group)

A high concentration of capital in a few stocks at the top ranks high among the features we detailed in Anatomy of a Stock Market Bubble.

On days like yesterday, headlines urge investors to buy. However, they also underscore the fragility of this terrifying bull market: just a handful of names can make the difference between a big up day and a big down day.

~ Addison

P.S. The Nvidia deal with the U.S. Energy Department is another minor feature of the Trump administration’s new strategic economic initiatives.

Tomorrow on Grey Swan Live! we’ll explore the rise of Trump’s economic nationalism and what it means for U.S. military readiness in the years ahead. Joining us is John Robb — our go-to analyst on the geopolitics of Trump’s tariff strategy, the global networked intifada, and the evolution of drone warfare in Ukraine.

A former consultant to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, John brings firsthand insight into how autonomous weapons and AI are reshaping modern strategy.

With markets rallying on optimism over a U.S.–China trade deal, he’ll pinpoint the next global flashpoints — and the investment opportunities emerging as technology transforms the defense industry.

Yesterday, on landmark deal announcements with Nokia and the U.S. Department of Energy, Nokia scooted up 5% bringing the S&P 500 index with it.

Good if you already own the stock.

Yesterday, also notched a less obvious record – its worst “breadth” day since 1990.

Turn Your Images On

Despite “the market” closing higher, nearly 300 of the 500 S&P 500 stocks traded lower. (Source: Bespoke Investment Group)

A high concentration of capital in a few stocks at the top ranks high among the features we detailed in Anatomy of a Stock Market Bubble.

~ Addison

P.S. The Nvidia deal with the U.S. Energy Department is another minor feature of the Trump administration’s new strategic economic initiatives.

A former consultant to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, John brings firsthand insight into how autonomous weapons and AI are reshaping modern strategy.

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time. That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!