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Ripple Effect

A Tale of Two Countries

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

January 6, 2026 • 1 minute, 29 second read


PolandVenezuela

A Tale of Two Countries

History is clear. The “warmth of collectivism,” as New York City Mayor Mamdani wants you to believe, doesn’t come from a healthy economy. Maybe from, burning books and buildings… but not from building a prosperous society.

Let’s compare two countries. Poland, rising out of collectivism, and Venezuela, forced into the delusion:

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Twenty years ago, the economic prosperity of Poland and Venezuela were, all things being equal, identical. (Source: Our World Data)

Poland spent decades behind the Iron Curtain as a vassal state as part of what Reagan called the “Evil Empire”, the USSR. Venezuela did not, enjoying growth and economic freedom to become one of the wealthiest countries in South America.

However, Venezuela’s shift towards collectivism in the early 2000s led to a massive decline in the standard of living.

Meanwhile, once the people of Poland unshackled themselves from the collectivist delusion, it has become a thriving success story.

Since 2000, Poland’s GDP per capita has more than doubled after adjusting for inflation.

In 2025, Poland surpassed Switzerland on the global who’s who of thriving economies, joining the G20.

In the same time span, Venezuela’s GDP has declined by two-thirds.

~ Addison

P.S. Grey Swan Live! returns from its holiday hiatus this week. Our guest this week will be Matt Smith, publisher at Casey Research. Matt and co-author Doug Casey have just released a new book titled “The Preparation.”

Quick hit: Both Matt and Doug are raising cattle in Uruguay. The Preparation has some very strong opinions on the value of Western education and how to prepare the next generation to participate in a strong, thriving economy.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!,  or have any questions for our guests, send them here.


The Hindenburg Five

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The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

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The Hindenburg Five
Piercing The Veil

February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

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Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time.   That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Piercing The Veil
Oh. Canada

February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

Oh. Canada
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February 20, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!

Matt Milner: SpaceX + xAI: What It Means for You