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Ripple Effect

A Tale of Two Asset Classes

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

May 21, 2025 • 56 second read


A Tale of Two Asset Classes

Five years ago, during the pandemic, the bond market hit record-low yields. At one point, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond paid a scant 0.318% yield.

Today’s 10-year bond buyers? 4.51%.

For $10,000, that’s a more than ten-fold difference between getting paid $31.80 in annual interest versus $451.

Bonds have been a poor asset, especially longer-dated ones. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, TLT, is down over 50% since 2020.

Let’s contrast that return with bitcoin.

Over the past five years, whether interest rates have been low or high, whether central banks have been flooding the system or not – bitcoin has soared over 1,100%.

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This week, soon-to-retire JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon graciously announced that the bank would allow its customers to buy crypto.

That’s after a 1,100% move. And after bonds, which the bank is more than happy to deal in, have been cut in half.

When it comes to crypto, asking a bank about it is like asking a taxi driver what they think of Uber.

There’s a monetary regime change underway. And bitcoin could allow investors to come out ahead – whatever happens – and whoever ends up on top.

~ Addison


Grey Swan Forecast #6: China Annexes Taiwan — Without a Shot Fired

December 26, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Our forecast will feel obvious in hindsight and controversial in advance — the hallmark of a Grey Swan.

Most analysts we speak to are thinking in terms of the history of Western conflict. 

They expect full-frontal military engagement.

Beijing, from our modest perch, prefers resolution because resolution compounds its power. Why sacrifice the workshop of the world, when cajoling and bribery will do?

Taiwan will not fall.

It will merge.

Grey Swan Forecast #6: China Annexes Taiwan — Without a Shot Fired
Grey Swan Forecast #7: A Global Debt Crisis Will Reprice Democracy

December 24, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Wars, technology races, and political upheavals — all of them rest on fiscal capacity.

In 2026, that capacity will tighten across the developed world simultaneously. Democracies will discover that generosity financed by debt carries conditions, whether voters approve of them or not.

Bond markets will not shout so much as clear their throats. Repeatedly.

Grey Swan Forecast #7: A Global Debt Crisis Will Reprice Democracy
Seven Grey Swans, One Year Later

December 23, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Taken together, the seven Grey Swans of 2025 behaved less like isolated events and more like interlocking stories readers already recognize.

The year moved in phases. A sharp April selloff cleared leverage quickly. Policy shifted toward tax relief, lighter regulation, and renewed tolerance for liquidity. Innovations began to slowly dominate the marketplace conversation – from Dollar 2.0 digital assets to AI-powered applications in all manner of commercial enterprises, ranging from airline and hotel bookings to driverless taxis and robots. 

Seven Grey Swans, One Year Later
2025: The Lens We Used — Fire, Transition, and What’s Next… The Boom!

December 22, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Back in April, when we published what we called the Trump Great Reset Strategy, we described the grand realignment we believed President Trump and his acolytes were embarking on in three phases.

At the time, it read like a conceptual map. As the months passed, it began to feel like a set of operating instructions written in advance of turbulence.

As you can expect, any grandiose plan would get all kinds of blowback… but this year exhibited all manner of Trump Derangement Syndrome on top of the difficulty of steering a sclerotic empire clear of the rocky shores.

The “phases” were never about optimism or pessimism. They were about sequencing — how stress surfaces, how systems adapt, and what must hold before confidence can regenerate. And in the end, what do we do with our money?!

2025: The Lens We Used — Fire, Transition, and What’s Next… The Boom!