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Ripple Effect

A Rising Sign of Consumer Stress

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

January 13, 2026 • 1 minute, 45 second read


Consumer Spending

A Rising Sign of Consumer Stress

Consumers, the backbone of the U.S. economy, are exhibiting crisis-level stress.

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The odds of consumers missing minimum debt payments are on the rise (Source: Augur Infinity)

This week begins bank earnings season. Estimates now indicate that the average consumer will default on a minimum payment at about a 15% rate – the highest level since a spike during the pandemic lockdown of the economy.

President Trump’s proposal over the weekend to cap credit card interest at 10% for a year won’t arrive in time to help consumers who are already missing minimum payments.

Not to fret, the other 85% of borrowers continue to spend on borrowed time. Total U.S. household debt, including mortgages, auto loans, student loans, and credit cards, reached record highs in late 2025, exceeding $18.5 trillion. This surge was driven partly by rising credit card balances, which neared their own all-time peaks due to inflation and higher interest rates.

~ Addison

P.S. Gold, on the other hand, hit another all-time high of its own yesterday at $4,631. After decades of neglect, gold, silver, and critical minerals are moving back to the center of the global monetary and economic chessboard.

While we’ve been well ahead of this trend, investors are only just beginning to connect the dots.

Grey Swan Investment Fraternity contributor Shad Marquitz is joining us this week on Grey Swan Live! to walk us through why the next phase of the metals cycle won’t be driven by speculation alone — but by hard constraints, federal policy, and domestic scarcity.

In fact, for more than 20 years, one company was penalized for producing antimony and copper, strategic metals that smelters treated as contaminants rather than assets.

As of January 1, 2026, that’s just changed.

If you care about domestic supply chains, strategic metals, the next growth phase for precious metals, or how federal policy is quietly reshaping resource winners…

Join us live on Thursday at 2 p.m. ET for Grey Swan Live! with Shad Marquitz.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!,  or have any questions for our guests, send them here.


The Hindenburg Five

February 24, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The Hindenburg Five
Piercing The Veil

February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time.   That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Piercing The Veil
Oh. Canada

February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

Oh. Canada
Matt Milner: SpaceX + xAI: What It Means for You

February 20, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!

Matt Milner: SpaceX + xAI: What It Means for You