A Rising Sign of Consumer Stress

Consumers, the backbone of the U.S. economy, are exhibiting crisis-level stress.

Turn Your Images On

The odds of consumers missing minimum debt payments are on the rise (Source: Augur Infinity)

This week begins bank earnings season. Estimates now indicate that the average consumer will default on a minimum payment at about a 15% rate – the highest level since a spike during the pandemic lockdown of the economy.

President Trump’s proposal over the weekend to cap credit card interest at 10% for a year won’t arrive in time to help consumers who are already missing minimum payments.

Not to fret, the other 85% of borrowers continue to spend on borrowed time. Total U.S. household debt, including mortgages, auto loans, student loans, and credit cards, reached record highs in late 2025, exceeding $18.5 trillion. This surge was driven partly by rising credit card balances, which neared their own all-time peaks due to inflation and higher interest rates.

~ Addison

P.S. Gold, on the other hand, hit another all-time high of its own yesterday at $4,631. After decades of neglect, gold, silver, and critical minerals are moving back to the center of the global monetary and economic chessboard.

While we’ve been well ahead of this trend, investors are only just beginning to connect the dots.

Grey Swan Investment Fraternity contributor Shad Marquitz is joining us this week on Grey Swan Live! to walk us through why the next phase of the metals cycle won’t be driven by speculation alone — but by hard constraints, federal policy, and domestic scarcity.

In fact, for more than 20 years, one company was penalized for producing antimony and copper, strategic metals that smelters treated as contaminants rather than assets.

As of January 1, 2026, that’s just changed.

If you care about domestic supply chains, strategic metals, the next growth phase for precious metals, or how federal policy is quietly reshaping resource winners…

Join us live on Thursday at 2 p.m. ET for Grey Swan Live! with Shad Marquitz.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Consumers, the backbone of the U.S. economy, are exhibiting crisis-level stress.

Turn Your Images On

The odds of consumers missing minimum debt payments are on the rise (Source: Augur Infinity)

President Trump’s proposal over the weekend to cap credit card interest at 10% for a year won’t arrive in time to help consumers who are already missing minimum payments.

~ Addison

While we’ve been well ahead of this trend, investors are only just beginning to connect the dots.

In fact, for more than 20 years, one company was penalized for producing antimony and copper, strategic metals that smelters treated as contaminants rather than assets.

As of January 1, 2026, that’s just changed.

If you care about domestic supply chains, strategic metals, the next growth phase for precious metals, or how federal policy is quietly reshaping resource winners…

Join us live on Thursday at 2 p.m. ET for Grey Swan Live! with Shad Marquitz.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!, or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

Every ten minutes, the bitcoin network completes another block of transaction data. Another bitcoin miner seeks a reward.

The reward is cut in half every four years, thanks to the “halving protocol” which established the coin’s scarcity algorithm. Next month, total bitcoin supply will hit 20 million, leaving just 1 million left to be mined.

The Nasdaq logged its fourth straight down week, pulled lower by the “SaaSpocalypse” in software.

Goldman Sachs’ Software Basket fell 16% for the week. Hedge fund exposure to software shrank sharply, according to Prime Book data.

Lou Miller, Goldman’s global head of Equity Custom Baskets, told clients that buyers remained scarce even as the group entered oversold territory.

In the late 1990s, telecom infrastructure outpaced demand, pricing compressed, and equity valuations adjusted long before usage caught up.

Today’s AI buildout carries healthier balance sheets and real utility, yet capital intensity remains high, and patience wears thin when returns depend on perfect adoption curves.

The week’s trading revealed that a rotation out of high-flying tech into defensive names is well underway. The Dow, which includes broader, non-tech-related stocks, is starting the week above 50,000 for the first time in its history.

The most important moment in finance this week didn’t happen in a committee room or on cable television. It took place over coffee last week in Davos.

Brian Armstrong, the founder and CEO of Coinbase, was mid-conversation with former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair when Jamie Dimon stepped in, pointed a finger, and said, “You are full of s—.”

Dimon wasn’t debating crypto theory. He was defending deposits.

Armstrong had spent the week accusing large banks of leaning on lawmakers to kneecap digital-asset legislation that threatens their core franchise. Dimon, whose firm sits atop the U.S. deposit pile, heard enough. According to people familiar with the exchange, he told Armstrong to stop lying on television.