GSI Banner
  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Grey Swan Forecasts
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • My Account
  • Sign In
  • Join Now

  • Free Access
  • Contributors
  • Membership Levels
  • Grey Swan Forecasts
  • Video
  • Origins
  • Sponsors
  • Contact

© 2026 Grey Swan Investment Fraternity

  • Cookie Policy
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information
  • Whitelist Us
Ripple Effect

A Rising Sign of Consumer Stress

Addison WigginAddison Wiggin

January 13, 2026 • 1 minute, 45 second read


Consumer Spending

A Rising Sign of Consumer Stress

Consumers, the backbone of the U.S. economy, are exhibiting crisis-level stress.

Turn Your Images On

The odds of consumers missing minimum debt payments are on the rise (Source: Augur Infinity)

This week begins bank earnings season. Estimates now indicate that the average consumer will default on a minimum payment at about a 15% rate – the highest level since a spike during the pandemic lockdown of the economy.

President Trump’s proposal over the weekend to cap credit card interest at 10% for a year won’t arrive in time to help consumers who are already missing minimum payments.

Not to fret, the other 85% of borrowers continue to spend on borrowed time. Total U.S. household debt, including mortgages, auto loans, student loans, and credit cards, reached record highs in late 2025, exceeding $18.5 trillion. This surge was driven partly by rising credit card balances, which neared their own all-time peaks due to inflation and higher interest rates.

~ Addison

P.S. Gold, on the other hand, hit another all-time high of its own yesterday at $4,631. After decades of neglect, gold, silver, and critical minerals are moving back to the center of the global monetary and economic chessboard.

While we’ve been well ahead of this trend, investors are only just beginning to connect the dots.

Grey Swan Investment Fraternity contributor Shad Marquitz is joining us this week on Grey Swan Live! to walk us through why the next phase of the metals cycle won’t be driven by speculation alone — but by hard constraints, federal policy, and domestic scarcity.

In fact, for more than 20 years, one company was penalized for producing antimony and copper, strategic metals that smelters treated as contaminants rather than assets.

As of January 1, 2026, that’s just changed.

If you care about domestic supply chains, strategic metals, the next growth phase for precious metals, or how federal policy is quietly reshaping resource winners…

Join us live on Thursday at 2 p.m. ET for Grey Swan Live! with Shad Marquitz.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!,  or have any questions for our guests, send them here.


Gas Prices Douse Inflation Fears

July 15, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Market rotation has been fueled by hopes for lower borrowing costs, a resilient domestic economy… and easing inflation.

Gas Prices Douse Inflation Fears
Bank Earnings and Where To Invest

July 14, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

A disciplined insurer with strong reserves, conservative investments and sober risk management can become a quiet compounder in any market…

Bank Earnings and Where To Invest
🤖 The Age of Intelligence?

July 13, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The AI boom rages on. But the second half of 2026 could reveal whether this is a technological revolution or the start of a costly reckoning.

🤖 The Age of Intelligence?
The Government Ruins Everything It Touches, Health Care Edition

July 13, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

A soaring administrative state is exactly what happens as a result of government regulations going into overdrive…

The Government Ruins Everything It Touches, Health Care Edition