A Rare Bullish Sign

Friday’s market action wasn’t just a sigh of relief – it actually kicked off a somewhat rare market indicator that suggests the meltup has begun.

Some context? We’ve been critial of the stock market for its high concentration – with Nvidia and Microsoft alone making up over 15% of the weighting in the widely-followed S&P 500.

It doesn’t take a big move from either of those companies to weigh on the index. Market breadth – the percentage of total companies moving up or down – is another factor.

So what happened Friday? A rare “90/90 day.”

That’s when 90% of stocks advanced at the same time – a massive level of market breadth. And when 90% of stocks also rose on heavy volume, suggesting a fundamental shift, not a one-time reaction to news:

Turn Your Images On

Friday’s 90/90 day shows tremendous volume and breadth in a market that has sometimes lacked it. (Source: Carson)

When these 90/90 days occur, the market is up – believe it or not 90% of the time a year later. And on average, it’s up by more than average – 23%.

“This is one of those charts that seems out of odds when they occur,” notes our Portfolio Director Andrew Packer. “90/90 days triggered often in the first few years after the Great Financial Crisis, and sure enough, stocks rose higher, even if they seemed overvalued or the economy seemed too sluggish at the time to justify the trend.”

If that’s the case this time around, the seasonal market dip this year may give way to what Grey Swan Fraternity member Mark Jeftovic has been calling a “terrifying bull market” – where stocks rally not because of fundamentals, but because investors perceive it as the place to be to avoid inflation.

~ Addison

P.S. Stocks weren’t the only assets that popped higher on Friday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that rate cuts were coming, inflation or not.

Gold popped higher on the news. Makes sense in our “terrifying bull market” thesis.

And bitcoin jumped higher, although it sold off over the weekend as large players decided to take some profits off the table. Both are excellent long-term inflation-protecting assets, and gold in particular is well off of where it should trade based on our calculations.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: Addison@GreySwanFraternity.com.

Friday’s market action wasn’t just a sigh of relief – it actually kicked off a somewhat rare market indicator that suggests the meltup has begun.

Some context? We’ve been critial of the stock market for its high concentration – with Nvidia and Microsoft alone making up over 15% of the weighting in the widely-followed S&P 500.

It doesn’t take a big move from either of those companies to weigh on the index. Market breadth – the percentage of total companies moving up or down – is another factor.

So what happened Friday? A rare “90/90 day.”

Turn Your Images On

Friday’s 90/90 day shows tremendous volume and breadth in a market that has sometimes lacked it. (Source: Carson)

When these 90/90 days occur, the market is up – believe it or not 90% of the time a year later. And on average, it’s up by more than average – 23%.

~ Addison

P.S. Stocks weren’t the only assets that popped higher on Friday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that rate cuts were coming, inflation or not.

Gold popped higher on the news. Makes sense in our “terrifying bull market” thesis.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: Addison@GreySwanFraternity.com.

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time. That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!