A Rare Bullish Sign

Friday’s market action wasn’t just a sigh of relief – it actually kicked off a somewhat rare market indicator that suggests the meltup has begun.

Some context? We’ve been critial of the stock market for its high concentration – with Nvidia and Microsoft alone making up over 15% of the weighting in the widely-followed S&P 500.

It doesn’t take a big move from either of those companies to weigh on the index. Market breadth – the percentage of total companies moving up or down – is another factor.

So what happened Friday? A rare “90/90 day.”

That’s when 90% of stocks advanced at the same time – a massive level of market breadth. And when 90% of stocks also rose on heavy volume, suggesting a fundamental shift, not a one-time reaction to news:

Turn Your Images On

Friday’s 90/90 day shows tremendous volume and breadth in a market that has sometimes lacked it. (Source: Carson)

When these 90/90 days occur, the market is up – believe it or not 90% of the time a year later. And on average, it’s up by more than average – 23%.

“This is one of those charts that seems out of odds when they occur,” notes our Portfolio Director Andrew Packer. “90/90 days triggered often in the first few years after the Great Financial Crisis, and sure enough, stocks rose higher, even if they seemed overvalued or the economy seemed too sluggish at the time to justify the trend.”

If that’s the case this time around, the seasonal market dip this year may give way to what Grey Swan Fraternity member Mark Jeftovic has been calling a “terrifying bull market” – where stocks rally not because of fundamentals, but because investors perceive it as the place to be to avoid inflation.

~ Addison

P.S. Stocks weren’t the only assets that popped higher on Friday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that rate cuts were coming, inflation or not.

Gold popped higher on the news. Makes sense in our “terrifying bull market” thesis.

And bitcoin jumped higher, although it sold off over the weekend as large players decided to take some profits off the table. Both are excellent long-term inflation-protecting assets, and gold in particular is well off of where it should trade based on our calculations.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: Addison@GreySwanFraternity.com.

Friday’s market action wasn’t just a sigh of relief – it actually kicked off a somewhat rare market indicator that suggests the meltup has begun.

Some context? We’ve been critial of the stock market for its high concentration – with Nvidia and Microsoft alone making up over 15% of the weighting in the widely-followed S&P 500.

It doesn’t take a big move from either of those companies to weigh on the index. Market breadth – the percentage of total companies moving up or down – is another factor.

So what happened Friday? A rare “90/90 day.”

Turn Your Images On

Friday’s 90/90 day shows tremendous volume and breadth in a market that has sometimes lacked it. (Source: Carson)

When these 90/90 days occur, the market is up – believe it or not 90% of the time a year later. And on average, it’s up by more than average – 23%.

~ Addison

P.S. Stocks weren’t the only assets that popped higher on Friday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that rate cuts were coming, inflation or not.

Gold popped higher on the news. Makes sense in our “terrifying bull market” thesis.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: Addison@GreySwanFraternity.com.

Our forecast will feel obvious in hindsight and controversial in advance — the hallmark of a Grey Swan.

Most analysts we speak to are thinking in terms of the history of Western conflict.

They expect full-frontal military engagement.

Beijing, from our modest perch, prefers resolution because resolution compounds its power. Why sacrifice the workshop of the world, when cajoling and bribery will do?

Taiwan will not fall.

It will merge.

Wars, technology races, and political upheavals — all of them rest on fiscal capacity.

In 2026, that capacity will tighten across the developed world simultaneously. Democracies will discover that generosity financed by debt carries conditions, whether voters approve of them or not.

Bond markets will not shout so much as clear their throats. Repeatedly.

Taken together, the seven Grey Swans of 2025 behaved less like isolated events and more like interlocking stories readers already recognize.

The year moved in phases. A sharp April selloff cleared leverage quickly. Policy shifted toward tax relief, lighter regulation, and renewed tolerance for liquidity. Innovations began to slowly dominate the marketplace conversation – from Dollar 2.0 digital assets to AI-powered applications in all manner of commercial enterprises, ranging from airline and hotel bookings to driverless taxis and robots.

Back in April, when we published what we called the Trump Great Reset Strategy, we described the grand realignment we believed President Trump and his acolytes were embarking on in three phases.

At the time, it read like a conceptual map. As the months passed, it began to feel like a set of operating instructions written in advance of turbulence.

As you can expect, any grandiose plan would get all kinds of blowback… but this year exhibited all manner of Trump Derangement Syndrome on top of the difficulty of steering a sclerotic empire clear of the rocky shores.

The “phases” were never about optimism or pessimism. They were about sequencing — how stress surfaces, how systems adapt, and what must hold before confidence can regenerate. And in the end, what do we do with our money?!