A Rare Bullish Sign

Friday’s market action wasn’t just a sigh of relief – it actually kicked off a somewhat rare market indicator that suggests the meltup has begun.

Some context? We’ve been critial of the stock market for its high concentration – with Nvidia and Microsoft alone making up over 15% of the weighting in the widely-followed S&P 500.

It doesn’t take a big move from either of those companies to weigh on the index. Market breadth – the percentage of total companies moving up or down – is another factor.

So what happened Friday? A rare “90/90 day.”

That’s when 90% of stocks advanced at the same time – a massive level of market breadth. And when 90% of stocks also rose on heavy volume, suggesting a fundamental shift, not a one-time reaction to news:

Turn Your Images On

Friday’s 90/90 day shows tremendous volume and breadth in a market that has sometimes lacked it. (Source: Carson)

When these 90/90 days occur, the market is up – believe it or not 90% of the time a year later. And on average, it’s up by more than average – 23%.

“This is one of those charts that seems out of odds when they occur,” notes our Portfolio Director Andrew Packer. “90/90 days triggered often in the first few years after the Great Financial Crisis, and sure enough, stocks rose higher, even if they seemed overvalued or the economy seemed too sluggish at the time to justify the trend.”

If that’s the case this time around, the seasonal market dip this year may give way to what Grey Swan Fraternity member Mark Jeftovic has been calling a “terrifying bull market” – where stocks rally not because of fundamentals, but because investors perceive it as the place to be to avoid inflation.

~ Addison

P.S. Stocks weren’t the only assets that popped higher on Friday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that rate cuts were coming, inflation or not.

Gold popped higher on the news. Makes sense in our “terrifying bull market” thesis.

And bitcoin jumped higher, although it sold off over the weekend as large players decided to take some profits off the table. Both are excellent long-term inflation-protecting assets, and gold in particular is well off of where it should trade based on our calculations.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: Addison@GreySwanFraternity.com.

Friday’s market action wasn’t just a sigh of relief – it actually kicked off a somewhat rare market indicator that suggests the meltup has begun.

Some context? We’ve been critial of the stock market for its high concentration – with Nvidia and Microsoft alone making up over 15% of the weighting in the widely-followed S&P 500.

It doesn’t take a big move from either of those companies to weigh on the index. Market breadth – the percentage of total companies moving up or down – is another factor.

So what happened Friday? A rare “90/90 day.”

Turn Your Images On

Friday’s 90/90 day shows tremendous volume and breadth in a market that has sometimes lacked it. (Source: Carson)

When these 90/90 days occur, the market is up – believe it or not 90% of the time a year later. And on average, it’s up by more than average – 23%.

~ Addison

P.S. Stocks weren’t the only assets that popped higher on Friday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that rate cuts were coming, inflation or not.

Gold popped higher on the news. Makes sense in our “terrifying bull market” thesis.

If you have any questions for us about the market, send them our way now to: Addison@GreySwanFraternity.com.

Trump and Powell are no buddies. They’ve been fighting over rate cuts all year—Trump demanding more, Powell holding back. Even after cutting twice, Trump called him “grossly incompetent” and said he’d “love to fire” him. The tension has been building for months.

And Trump now seems ready to install someone who shares his appetite for lower rates and easier money.

Trump has been dropping hints for weeks—saying on November 18, “I think I already know my choice,” and then doubling down last Sunday aboard Air Force One with, “I know who I am going to pick… we’ll be announcing it.”

He was referring to one Kevin Hassett, who—according to a recent Bloomberg report—has emerged as the overwhelming favorite to become the next Fed chair.

Here we sit — investors, analysts, retirees, accountants, even a few masochistic economists — gathered beneath the leafless monetary tree, rehearsing our lines as we wait for Jerome Powell to step onstage and tell us what the future means.

Spoiler: he can’t. But that does not stop us from waiting.

Tomorrow, he is expected to deliver the December rate cut. Polymarket odds sit at 96% for a dainty 25-point cut.

Trump, Navarro and Lutnick pine for 50 points.

And somewhere in the wings smiles Kevin Hassett — at 74% odds this morning, the presumed Powell successor — watching the last few snowflakes fall before his cue arrives.

With U.S. stocks trading at about 24 times forward earnings, plans for capital growth have to go off without a hitch. Given the billions of dollars in commitments by AI companies, financing to the hilt on debt, the most realistic outcome is a hitch.

On a valuation basis, global markets will likely show better returns than U.S. stocks in 2026.

America leads the world in innovation. A U.S. tech stock will naturally fetch a higher price than, say, a German brewery. But value matters, too.

As copper flowed into the United States, LME inventories thinned and backwardation steepened. Higher U.S. pricing, tariff protection, and lower political risk made American warehouses the most attractive destination for metal. Each new shipment strengthened the spread.

The arbitrage, once triggered, became self-reinforcing. Traders were not participating in theory; they were responding to the physical incentives in front of them.

The United States had quietly become the marginal buyer of the world’s most important industrial metal. China, long the gravitational center of global copper demand, found itself on the outside.