A One In Three Chance of Triple-Digit Oil

Over the past few years, oil prices have spiked on every geopolitical tiff between Israel and Iran.

When the two countries lobbed missiles at each other in early 2024, oil prices spiked, and markets dropped.

But in all of those cases, tensions cooled, and oil prices came back down and markets kept on truckin’.

So far, that seems to be the playbook here. Oil is starting to trend lower after the weekend, even as both countries continued their attacks.

However, one sign in the betting markets hints at some danger. The odds of the Strait of Hormuz closing are on the rise:

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The odds have been around 20% all year, but with the current escalation, it’s jumped to about 35%. Closing the Strait would considerably lower oil exports from the Middle East, and raise prices – potentially to the $100 range.

That’s a good reason to look elsewhere for energy opportunities ahead of a potential spike – and we’ve already identified some of the best oil and gas plays in the U.S. – which also plays strongly to part of President Trump’s Great Reset.

P.S.: And, with the hard asset story getting stronger by the minute, so is our research. Andrew will be at the Rule Investment Symposium in Boca Raton on July 7-11, 2025.

The Symposium is a five-day affair featuring in-depth research from dozens of small-cap resource companies, including gold and silver mining companies – but also copper, uranium, and other critical commodities we’ve explored in-depth in our research over the past year. Click here to attend and meet your future cutting-edge resource investments face-to-face.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Over the past few years, oil prices have spiked on every geopolitical tiff between Israel and Iran.

When the two countries lobbed missiles at each other in early 2024, oil prices spiked, and markets dropped.

But in all of those cases, tensions cooled, and oil prices came back down and markets kept on truckin’.

So far, that seems to be the playbook here. Oil is starting to trend lower after the weekend, even as both countries continued their attacks.

However, one sign in the betting markets hints at some danger. The odds of the Strait of Hormuz closing are on the rise:

Turn Your Images On

P.S.: And, with the hard asset story getting stronger by the minute, so is our research. Andrew will be at the Rule Investment Symposium in Boca Raton on July 7-11, 2025.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Sunday night, Powell addressed the probe head-on in a video post — a rarity. He accused the White House of using cost overruns in the Fed’s HQ renovation as a pretext for political interference.

The White House denied involvement. But few in Washington believed it.

What followed was bipartisan condemnation of the investigation. Greenspan, Bernanke, and Yellen co-signed a blistering rebuke, warning the U.S. was starting to resemble “emerging markets with weak institutions.”

Estimates now indicate that the average consumer will default on a minimum payment at about a 15% rate – the highest level since a spike during the pandemic lockdown of the economy.

President Trump’s proposal over the weekend to cap credit card interest at 10% for a year won’t arrive in time to help consumers who are already missing minimum payments.

Not to fret, the other 85% of borrowers continue to spend on borrowed time. Total U.S. household debt, including mortgages, auto loans, student loans, and credit cards, reached record highs in late 2025, exceeding $18.5 trillion. This surge was driven partly by rising credit card balances, which neared their own all-time peaks due to inflation and higher interest rates.

There’s an old Wall Street maxim: “Don’t fight the Fed.”

This year, you could add a Trump corollary.

A wise capital allocator doesn’t fight that storm. He doesn’t argue with it. He respects it the way sailors respect the sea: with preparation, with humility, and with a sharp eye for what breaks first.

In 2026, the things that break first are the stories. The narratives. The comfortable assumptions.

Total municipal, state and federal debt service costs soared to nearly $1.5 trillion in the third quarter of 2025. Debt’s easy to accumulate when rates are low. Trouble is, you are obligated to refinance them even after rates go up.

It’s also a key reason why the Trump administration is demanding lower interest rates – even if it means reigniting inflation.