A One In Three Chance of Triple-Digit Oil

Over the past few years, oil prices have spiked on every geopolitical tiff between Israel and Iran.

When the two countries lobbed missiles at each other in early 2024, oil prices spiked, and markets dropped.

But in all of those cases, tensions cooled, and oil prices came back down and markets kept on truckin’.

So far, that seems to be the playbook here. Oil is starting to trend lower after the weekend, even as both countries continued their attacks.

However, one sign in the betting markets hints at some danger. The odds of the Strait of Hormuz closing are on the rise:

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The odds have been around 20% all year, but with the current escalation, it’s jumped to about 35%. Closing the Strait would considerably lower oil exports from the Middle East, and raise prices – potentially to the $100 range.

That’s a good reason to look elsewhere for energy opportunities ahead of a potential spike – and we’ve already identified some of the best oil and gas plays in the U.S. – which also plays strongly to part of President Trump’s Great Reset.

P.S.: And, with the hard asset story getting stronger by the minute, so is our research. Andrew will be at the Rule Investment Symposium in Boca Raton on July 7-11, 2025.

The Symposium is a five-day affair featuring in-depth research from dozens of small-cap resource companies, including gold and silver mining companies – but also copper, uranium, and other critical commodities we’ve explored in-depth in our research over the past year. Click here to attend and meet your future cutting-edge resource investments face-to-face.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

Over the past few years, oil prices have spiked on every geopolitical tiff between Israel and Iran.

When the two countries lobbed missiles at each other in early 2024, oil prices spiked, and markets dropped.

But in all of those cases, tensions cooled, and oil prices came back down and markets kept on truckin’.

So far, that seems to be the playbook here. Oil is starting to trend lower after the weekend, even as both countries continued their attacks.

However, one sign in the betting markets hints at some danger. The odds of the Strait of Hormuz closing are on the rise:

Turn Your Images On

P.S.: And, with the hard asset story getting stronger by the minute, so is our research. Andrew will be at the Rule Investment Symposium in Boca Raton on July 7-11, 2025.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)

The cost to ship cars, refrigerators, and Christmas toys has fallen back to numbers we last saw when the economy was on lockdown.

For these rates to rise, demand for goods needs to rise…. unlikely as President Trump’s tariff strategy is intended to reshore domestic production of these goods in the U.S.

Until factories come online, there will be fewer goods on the shelves. Combined with declining jobs and stubborn inflation, however, that fact may go unnoticed this holiday season.

We’ve been saying for a long time that when it came time to rev up the money printer again, the Fed would do it under some other rubric than “Quantitative Easing” (QE), because by now, everybody knows what that is. YCC? Not so much.

What it means is that the Fed will buy unlimited bonds out at the long end of the yield curve in order to keep yields under some arbitrary line in the sand.

Let’s see, now that the government is shut down, where are we?

Pretty much where we left off: Markets surging higher, backed by the weight of AI capex and gorging on debt; A Congress unable to pay for promises forged in the 20th century’s welfare bureaucracy; A currency bleeding purchasing power with each deficit skirmish; A nation where even butter, coffee, and bandwidth become weapons of policy.

In the first few months of the year, European stocks started outperforming U.S. stocks. There was talk of capital flows out of the U.S., and into Europe.

On the surface, that looked reasonable – a relative value play. But European investors continue to stay invested in the U.S. for one simple reason – it’s where the growth is.