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Ripple Effect

A One In Three Chance of Triple-Digit Oil

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

June 16, 2025 • 1 minute, 25 second read


IranOil

A One In Three Chance of Triple-Digit Oil

Over the past few years, oil prices have spiked on every geopolitical tiff between Israel and Iran.

When the two countries lobbed missiles at each other in early 2024, oil prices spiked, and markets dropped.

But in all of those cases, tensions cooled, and oil prices came back down and markets kept on truckin’.

So far, that seems to be the playbook here. Oil is starting to trend lower after the weekend, even as both countries continued their attacks.

However, one sign in the betting markets hints at some danger. The odds of the Strait of Hormuz closing are on the rise:

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The odds have been around 20% all year, but with the current escalation, it’s jumped to about 35%. Closing the Strait would considerably lower oil exports from the Middle East, and raise prices – potentially to the $100 range.

That’s a good reason to look elsewhere for energy opportunities ahead of a potential spike – and we’ve already identified some of the best oil and gas plays in the U.S. – which also plays strongly to part of President Trump’s Great Reset.

 

P.S.: And, with the hard asset story getting stronger by the minute, so is our research. Andrew will be at the Rule Investment Symposium in Boca Raton on July 7-11, 2025.

The Symposium is a five-day affair featuring in-depth research from dozens of small-cap resource companies, including gold and silver mining companies – but also copper, uranium, and other critical commodities we’ve explored in-depth in our research over the past year. Click here to attend and meet your future cutting-edge resource investments face-to-face.

As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com (We read all emails. Thanks in advance for your contribution.)


The Government Shutdown Isn’t Stopping the Debt

October 23, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Alternative assets like gold and bitcoin are trading off their highs right now, but rising levels of debt and an ongoing political impasse will likely mean much higher price moves for these assets in dollar terms.

The Government Shutdown Isn’t Stopping the Debt
When Debt Strangles Growth

October 22, 2025 • Lau Vegys

U.S. government debt is edging closer to the $38 trillion mark — now well over 120% of GDP. That puts the U.S. in the same league as basket-case economies like Venezuela, Sudan, and Lebanon. Not exactly the kind of company you want to keep.

But it makes sense: history shows that once a country crosses this threshold, things start to break — and it’s rarely just one thing. I’ve talked a lot about that in the past.

When Debt Strangles Growth
Dunning-Kruger and The Greatest Fool

October 22, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

An admission: we’re mildly obsessed with the private credit markets.

When there’s a bull market in everything — AI stocks, financials, rare earths, gold and silver — it helps to keep an eye on the plumbing.

One chart tells the tale: since 2015, bank loans to non-depository financial institutions (NDFIs) — think private equity and private-credit funds — have soared nearly 300%.

Consumer loans, residential mortgages, commercial real estate? Flat as Kansas. Post-2008, Basel III and Dodd-Frank made leveraged and middle-market lending so capital-intensive that banks stepped back.

Dunning-Kruger and The Greatest Fool
Source of the “Debasement Trade”

October 22, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Gold dropped nearly 2% yesterday. But with the massive increase in fiat currencies globally, that’s an opportunity to buy more cheaply.

With that much cash sloshing around the system, the “debasement trade” is a go.

Source of the “Debasement Trade”