Over the past few years, oil prices have spiked on every geopolitical tiff between Israel and Iran.
When the two countries lobbed missiles at each other in early 2024, oil prices spiked, and markets dropped.
But in all of those cases, tensions cooled, and oil prices came back down and markets kept on truckin’.
So far, that seems to be the playbook here. Oil is starting to trend lower after the weekend, even as both countries continued their attacks.
However, one sign in the betting markets hints at some danger. The odds of the Strait of Hormuz closing are on the rise:
The odds have been around 20% all year, but with the current escalation, it’s jumped to about 35%. Closing the Strait would considerably lower oil exports from the Middle East, and raise prices – potentially to the $100 range.
That’s a good reason to look elsewhere for energy opportunities ahead of a potential spike – and we’ve already identified some of the best oil and gas plays in the U.S. – which also plays strongly to part of President Trump’s Great Reset.
P.S.: And, with the hard asset story getting stronger by the minute, so is our research. Andrew will be at the Rule Investment Symposium in Boca Raton on July 7-11, 2025.
The Symposium is a five-day affair featuring in-depth research from dozens of small-cap resource companies, including gold and silver mining companies – but also copper, uranium, and other critical commodities we’ve explored in-depth in our research over the past year. Click here to attend and meet your future cutting-edge resource investments face-to-face.
As always, your reader feedback is welcome: feedback@greyswanfraternity.
