A Fiscal Black Hole Worth $1 Million per Taxpayer

“Our growing national debt is a threat to our national defense and to our domestic priorities, including research and development, education, health care, and investments in our economic growth.”

– U.S. Congressman Seth Moulton

At what point does our national debt become truly unsustainable?

June 24, 2025 — As you read this, the U.S. has just smashed through a historic fiscal milestone of $37 trillion in national debt. That is roughly $244,000 for every taxpayer and $280,000 for every U.S. household.

This means the national debt has surged by nearly $2.6 trillion over the past 12 months. That’s about $7.1 billion every single day, roughly $296 million an hour, and around $4.93 million a minute.

These are truly mind-boggling numbers. You can step into the bathroom, and by the time you walk out, the U.S. will be another $20 million deeper in debt.

Here’s a link if you’re feeling a little masochistic and want to watch it tick up live, second by second.

And here’s the interesting part.

The recent explosion in U.S. debt is unlike anything we’ve seen in historical spikes during major wars and financial crises like the Panic of 1837, the Civil War, and World War II, as it lacks a single exceptional event driving it.

In other words, this time the crisis isn’t a moment—it’s the system itself.

But…

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Does It Even Matter?

This is a very valid question to ask because many people see national debt as a distant thunderstorm — something far off and abstract, rather than the storm that’s brewing right over their heads.

Others say it’s just “money we owe to ourselves.”

Nobel Prize–winning economist Paul Krugman made this argument back in 2015.

His message clearly resonated with those at the top, given the staggering rise in our debt—from “only” $18 trillion in 2015 to $37 trillion today. That’s more than a doubling in just 10 years.

But of course, it’s pure nonsense.

For one, as of March 2025, about 25% of U.S. government debt—roughly $9.05 trillion—is held by foreign nations.

(Note: Such a large share of foreign ownership isn’t just a dry statistic—it’s a real problem. As I explained in a recent essay, Japan—America’s largest creditor—may soon need to start repatriating some of its $1.13 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. Meanwhile, China has been quietly reducing its exposure for years and has now slipped behind the UK in total U.S. Treasury holdings. And those are just the most obvious cases. More and more countries are starting to rethink whether it’s wise to keep entrusting a fiscally reckless U.S. with their reserves.)

And the rest of the debt isn’t exactly “ourselves” either. It’s mostly held by banks, pension funds, insurance companies, and major corporations. These institutions are controlled by the wealthiest of the wealthy in America. In practice, this means interest payments—funded by taxpayers—flow straight into the pockets of the financial elite and politically connected. Meanwhile, everyday Americans are stuck with the bill.

Speaking of which, do you know how much of your income taxes were spent on interest on the national debt last month?

According to the latest Monthly Statement of the U.S. Treasury (Page 9) “Interest on Treasury Debt Securities” was $92.2 billion. That’s 65% of the $142.3 billion the government collected in income tax receipts.

Put simply, 65 cents of every dollar you paid in income tax in May went to cover interest on the debt.

And honestly, you shouldn’t be surprised given that interest payments have already surpassed what the government spends on the military, veterans’ affairs, education, and more. In fact, the only two budget categories larger than interest are Social Security and Medicare (see Page 4 of the same report).

It boggles my mind that we don’t wake up to this on the front page every day.

Tip of the Iceberg

But here’s the part almost no one talks about…

According to recent estimates looking at the decades ahead, the net present value of the federal government’s unfunded liabilities for its two largest entitlement programs is about $78.3 trillion—with Medicare accounting for $52.8 trillion and Social Security another $25.4 trillion. And that doesn’t even include federal pensions or other off-the-books promises.

In other words, the $37 trillion debt figure is just the tip of the iceberg.

Add it all up, and the real financial hole the U.S. government faces is likely around $150 trillion. That’s nearly $1 million per taxpayer.

This fiscal picture isn’t just unsustainable. It’s a mathematical impossibility.

And keep in mind—the U.S. faces $8.5–9.2 trillion in maturing debt this year alone. Under current conditions, that’s not going to be easy to refinance without spiking interest rates or shaking confidence in Treasuries.

So, unless Trump manages to pull off his total fiscal reset (we’ve analyzed that scenario here and here), I don’t see how they keep kicking this can down the road much longer—especially once you add the projected $2.4–$3.8 trillion in new deficits tied to the “Big, Beautiful Bill” (if it passes).

Regards,

Lau Vegys
Doug Casey’s Take & Grey Swan

P.S. from Addison: Grey Swan Live! this Thursday, June 26 at 11 a.m. ET. We’ll be joined by cryptocurrency expert and tech wizard Ian King to look at all the latest events swirling around markets right now, plus a rousing discussion on the GENIUS Act — how stablecoins may become a backdoor lifeline for the U.S. Treasury. You’ll want to hear this one.

Meanwhile, our Portfolio Director, Andrew Packer, will be attending the Rule Investment Symposium in Boca Raton, FL, July 7-11, 2025. Click here to view the stellar speaker lineup and learn how you can attend.