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Ripple Effect

A Bubble in Bubble Talk

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

November 13, 2025 • 1 minute, 27 second read


AI bubble

A Bubble in Bubble Talk

Retail investors are catching on:

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Search trends for a market bubble precede a market peak. Buckle up! 2026 is likely to be a rough ride for investors.

Searches for “market bubble” spiked in 2006, right before the last great market peak. They did it again in 2021, just before the market took a header into the 2022 bear.

Yes, Nvidia’s profits are up 500%, and its share price followed suit — a rare case where the story actually matches the math. But that’s the exception, not the rule.

Beneath the headlines, we’re starting to see the kind of financial gymnastics — circular lending, balance-sheet origami, and creative “partnerships” — that usually signal the boom is running out of breath.

If history rhymes, it looks like we’re closing in on the tail end of a mania.

One key outlier: the sheer will of the Trump agenda before the midterms in November 2026. Stay tuned. More drama awaits…

~ Addison

P.S. We’ve invited Bloomberg’s #1 employment analyst, Andrew Zatlin, to join us this afternoon on Grey Swan Live! for obvious reasons:

Andrew Zatlin — the #1-ranked economic forecaster on Bloomberg and one of the most connected data minds in finance. For decades, Andrew has helped billion-dollar hedge funds stay three steps ahead of Washington’s chaos, consumer shifts, and global supply chain shocks.

As unemployment ticks up, politicians trade on insider intel, and Pelosi closes out an era, he’ll reveal what his data is signaling next — and what investors should prepare for. With the government reopening, the timing of today’s conversation with Andrew couldn’t be better.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!,  or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

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The Hindenburg Five

February 24, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The stock market “rebalancing” is a polite way to put it. Energy and health care are getting a healthy boost. But tech hardware and software makers are still getting dressed down and have been asked to report to the principal’s office.

The great rotation underway has triggered a series of “Hindenburg Omens.” Five have occurred in recent weeks.

The Hindenburg Five
Piercing The Veil

February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

The S&P 500 has traded in a 3.7% range over the past two months — less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%. One of the tightest ranges in modern history.

In trader parlance, the indexes are “flat,” a setup that often materializes before a sell-off at the top after a multi-year bull market.

Goldman Sachs told its own traders to be aware that institutional trading activity resembles a VIX reading near 35. Rather than a reading of 20, where the VIX has been trading over that same 2-month period.

The U.S. software ETF, IGV, tested its April 2025 lows last week and trades roughly 35% below its peak. The “SaaS-pocalypse” in software companies reflects the fear of Citrini’s 2028 scenario happening in real time.   That divergence now exceeds the spread seen at the peak of the Great Financial Crisis.

Under the surface, the “great rotation” we wrote about last week is threatening to widen.

Piercing The Veil
Oh. Canada

February 23, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

Despite its overly-educated 40-million-plus population, on a GDP per capita basis Canada is null. Collectively, the Great White North would rank as America’s second-lowest state, coming in above Mississippi, but below Alabama.

Oh. Canada
Matt Milner: SpaceX + xAI: What It Means for You

February 20, 2026 • Addison Wiggin

SpaceX is the most valuable private startup in history — and if its success continues, it might become the most valuable public company in history.

After all, as Musk famously said in 2023, “I have never lost money for those who invest in me and I am not starting now.”

For investors, SpaceX has been a wild, joyful ride — and now the journey continues!

Matt Milner: SpaceX + xAI: What It Means for You