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Ripple Effect

A Bubble in Bubble Talk

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

November 13, 2025 • 1 minute, 27 second read


AI bubble

A Bubble in Bubble Talk

Retail investors are catching on:

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Search trends for a market bubble precede a market peak. Buckle up! 2026 is likely to be a rough ride for investors.

Searches for “market bubble” spiked in 2006, right before the last great market peak. They did it again in 2021, just before the market took a header into the 2022 bear.

Yes, Nvidia’s profits are up 500%, and its share price followed suit — a rare case where the story actually matches the math. But that’s the exception, not the rule.

Beneath the headlines, we’re starting to see the kind of financial gymnastics — circular lending, balance-sheet origami, and creative “partnerships” — that usually signal the boom is running out of breath.

If history rhymes, it looks like we’re closing in on the tail end of a mania.

One key outlier: the sheer will of the Trump agenda before the midterms in November 2026. Stay tuned. More drama awaits…

~ Addison

P.S. We’ve invited Bloomberg’s #1 employment analyst, Andrew Zatlin, to join us this afternoon on Grey Swan Live! for obvious reasons:

Andrew Zatlin — the #1-ranked economic forecaster on Bloomberg and one of the most connected data minds in finance. For decades, Andrew has helped billion-dollar hedge funds stay three steps ahead of Washington’s chaos, consumer shifts, and global supply chain shocks.

As unemployment ticks up, politicians trade on insider intel, and Pelosi closes out an era, he’ll reveal what his data is signaling next — and what investors should prepare for. With the government reopening, the timing of today’s conversation with Andrew couldn’t be better.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!,  or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

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Joe Withrow: The Hollow Class, Part III

November 13, 2025 • Andrew Packer

What we’ve seen since 2008 is nothing short of a theft of the commons. Except it happened in little pieces that seemed unrelated at the time. But if we look at the story holistically, it all comes together.

When we step back and view the entire picture, what emerges is not just a story of market excesses and economic shifts. What we see is the gutting of middle America – be it intentional or otherwise.

Now the question is – are we going to see the restoration of the American middle class in the coming years… or are we going to watch everything devolve into a modern redux of the War Between the States, more commonly but mistakenly known as the American Civil War?

Joe Withrow: The Hollow Class, Part III
Performative Clowns

November 13, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Today’s Washington isn’t governed so much as stage-managed.

Politicians don’t solve problems; they perform them.

The current fixation is affordability — a word that will be repeated ad nauseam from now through the 2026 midterms, until it becomes as meaningless as “bipartisan.”

The script hasn’t changed in decades: promise relief, pass a law that raises costs, blame capitalism, hold hearings, fundraise, repeat.

Performative Clowns
The Hollow Class, Part II

November 12, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As interest rates fell, investors swarmed into real estate, lured by yields and the illusion that home prices never fell. Wall Street’s private-label securitizers were soon packaging everything from pristine mortgages to what were effectively loans scribbled on napkins, thus turning them into bonds that glowed like gold — until you looked too closely.

For their part, the regulators and ratings agencies conveniently looked away and allowed the bubble to grow. Fannie Mae watched the frenzy from the sidelines at first.

The company’s mandate — written in law — was not to chase profits but to promote affordable housing. That is to say, to make sure that teachers, nurses, and other first-time buyers could own their own homes and unlock the American Dream.

But as Wall Street flooded the market with high-risk mortgage products, political pressure mounted. Congress demanded that Fannie “do its part” for low and moderate-income families.

The Hollow Class, Part II
The Debt of Intelligence

November 12, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

SoftBank offloaded its entire $5.83 billion Nvidia stake to bankroll an even bigger gamble: tens of billions in OpenAI.

Son insists this is his next Vision Fund moment.

OpenAI’s swelling valuation doubled SoftBank’s profit last quarter. He may have sold the pickaxe factory, but he’s betting the mine still goes deeper.

The Debt of Intelligence