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Ripple Effect

A Bubble in Bubble Talk

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

November 13, 2025 • 1 minute, 27 second read


AI bubble

A Bubble in Bubble Talk

Retail investors are catching on:

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Search trends for a market bubble precede a market peak. Buckle up! 2026 is likely to be a rough ride for investors.

Searches for “market bubble” spiked in 2006, right before the last great market peak. They did it again in 2021, just before the market took a header into the 2022 bear.

Yes, Nvidia’s profits are up 500%, and its share price followed suit — a rare case where the story actually matches the math. But that’s the exception, not the rule.

Beneath the headlines, we’re starting to see the kind of financial gymnastics — circular lending, balance-sheet origami, and creative “partnerships” — that usually signal the boom is running out of breath.

If history rhymes, it looks like we’re closing in on the tail end of a mania.

One key outlier: the sheer will of the Trump agenda before the midterms in November 2026. Stay tuned. More drama awaits…

~ Addison

P.S. We’ve invited Bloomberg’s #1 employment analyst, Andrew Zatlin, to join us this afternoon on Grey Swan Live! for obvious reasons:

Andrew Zatlin — the #1-ranked economic forecaster on Bloomberg and one of the most connected data minds in finance. For decades, Andrew has helped billion-dollar hedge funds stay three steps ahead of Washington’s chaos, consumer shifts, and global supply chain shocks.

As unemployment ticks up, politicians trade on insider intel, and Pelosi closes out an era, he’ll reveal what his data is signaling next — and what investors should prepare for. With the government reopening, the timing of today’s conversation with Andrew couldn’t be better.

If you have requests for new guests you’d like to see join us for Grey Swan Live!,  or have any questions for our guests, send them here.

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2025: The Lens We Used — Fire, Transition, and What’s Next… The Boom!

December 22, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Back in April, when we published what we called the Trump Great Reset Strategy, we described the grand realignment we believed President Trump and his acolytes were embarking on in three phases.

At the time, it read like a conceptual map. As the months passed, it began to feel like a set of operating instructions written in advance of turbulence.

As you can expect, any grandiose plan would get all kinds of blowback… but this year exhibited all manner of Trump Derangement Syndrome on top of the difficulty of steering a sclerotic empire clear of the rocky shores.

The “phases” were never about optimism or pessimism. They were about sequencing — how stress surfaces, how systems adapt, and what must hold before confidence can regenerate. And in the end, what do we do with our money?!

2025: The Lens We Used — Fire, Transition, and What’s Next… The Boom!
Dan Amoss: Squanderville Is Running Out Of Quick Fixes

December 19, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Relative to GDP, the net international investment claim on the U.S. economy was 20% in 2003. It had swollen to 65% by 2023. Practically every type of American company, bond, or real estate asset now has some degree of foreign ownership.

But it’s even worse than that. As the federal deficit has pumped up the GDP figures, and made a larger share of the economy dependent on government spending, the quality and sustainability of GDP have deteriorated. So, foreigners, to the extent they are paying attention, are accumulating claims on an economy that has been eroded by inefficient, government-directed spending and “investments.” Why should foreign creditors maintain confidence in the integrity of these paper claims? Only to the extent that their economies are even worse off. And in the case of China, that’s probably true.

Dan Amoss: Squanderville Is Running Out Of Quick Fixes
Debt Is the Message, 2026

December 19, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As global government interest expense climbed, gold quietly followed it higher. The IIF estimates that interest costs on government debt now run at nearly $4.9 trillion annually. Over the same span, gold prices have tracked that burden almost one-for-one.

Silver has recently gone along for the ride, with even more enthusiasm.

Since early 2023, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has risen roughly 150 basis points, touching levels not seen since the 1990s.

Over that same period, gold prices have surged about 135%, while silver is up roughly 175%. Zoom out two years, and the divergence becomes starker still: gold up 114%, silver up 178%, while the S&P 500 gained 44%.

Debt Is the Message, 2026
Mind Your Allocation In 2026

December 19, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

According to the American Association of Individual Investors, the average retail investor has about a 70% allocation to stocks. That’s well over the traditional 60/40 split between stocks and bonds. Even a 60/40 allocation ignores real estate, gold, collectibles, and private assets.

A pullback in the 10% range – which is likely in any given year – will prompt investors to scream as if it’s the end of the world.

Our “panic now, avoid the rush” strategy is simple.

Take tech profits off the table, raise some cash, and focus on industry-leading companies that pay dividends. Roll those dividends up and use compounding to your overall portfolio’s advantage.

Mind Your Allocation In 2026