As we were about to hit send on today’s Swan Dive, we were treated to a microcosm of how the markets are likely to act when they eventually get spooked during this terrifying bull market.
Back in the early 2000s, the tech wreck and then again in the Panic of ‘08 that led to the global financial crisis, stocks and precious metals sold off together.
Traders were, perhaps, taking profits after historic highs in gold, silver, and the tech-heavy indexes, right?
Taking profits in what, you may be curious.
With all the negative news about the dollar index at decade-long lows and Treasuries getting beaten up in the bond market, why would anyone want those?
It’s a good question. And yet…
The dollar index rallied and 10-year Treasury yields dropped (meaning prices rose) at the exact time precious metals and the stock indexes were selling off.
All of these markets have since stabilized for today.
But the market action mid-day gives us a hint that both the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasurys will maintain their “flight-to-safety” status at the top of the crack-up boom we’ve forecast for some time later this year.
💸 Jamie Dimon’s Calculated Words
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase — the man who once called crypto a “fraud”, “used by drug dealers and human traffickers,” and, later, “a well orchestrated ponzi scheme” and threatened to fire anyone caught trading it — went on national television this morning and effectively said: “Crypto” is better than the current financial system.
That sound you hear? It’s the floorboards of finance creaking. Not just from weight, but from a fundamental shift.
The “experiment” phase is over. Call it what you will — capitulation, a pivot, an act of financial self-preservation — but coming from the oracle of the American megabank, it feels more like a declaration than theory. Wall Street has “captured” bitcoin and crypto.
Bitcoin is sitting above $92,000 this morning. Ethereum punched through $6,100. Mark Jeftovic texted me this morning: “If you’re looking for a batshit brazen trade this morning, it’s sell gold and buy BTC.”
🤖What’s Better Than the Mag 7?
It’s earnings week, and never in our lifetime has this ritual felt more like a coronation.
During this innovation cycle in tech — in just the past year — the so-called “Magnificent Seven” stocks have created over $1.8 trillion in new wealth. That’s the GDP of Canada.
Their soaring share prices have minted over 560,000 new American millionaires. That’s enough to fill 10 NFL stadiums with millionaires and still have luxury box seating left over.
Of course, that stat doesn’t mean much if you didn’t buy in when Apple was still pretending to be a computer company.
If you want to avoid déjà vu when the next cycle hits, Grey Swan contributor Mat Milner is tracking seven private companies he believes will comprise the next wave of tech elite — unicorns in gestation. Matt’s going to detail his complete list today in a private briefing.
🤖 Betting the Digital Farm
Meanwhile, on the shipping room floor, Amazon is still slicing its workforce like a sushi chef in overtime. Another 16,000 corporate layoffs dropped this week — the second big wave since October. Add it all up, and roughly 10% of Amazon’s white-collar workforce has been shown the door since last fall.
And they’re not alone. Home Depot announced 800 corporate job cuts and a full return-to-office policy — five days a week starting in April. The Great Flattening is underway. Productivity gains are back in fashion.
But here’s the catch: this isn’t cost-cutting for efficiency’s sake. It’s capital reallocation. Amazon is freeing up runway for AI spending — to the tune of $125 billion this year. Nvidia, Microsoft, and SoftBank are joining forces to dump $60 billion into OpenAI’s next funding round. Elon is halting Tesla’s S and X model production to pivot factory lines toward his humanoid robots. Robinhood is lobbying for a seat at the SpaceX IPO table.
In total, employers cut 1.2 million jobs in 2025. Excluding the pandemic, that’s the worst year since the Global Financial Crisis. Challenger, Gray & Christmas — the firm tracking layoff data — is already projecting more cuts in the first quarter of 2026.
🥇 Gold Reaches $5,615
If you blinked, you missed it: gold traded above $5,615 per ounce. Back in November, when it touched $4,080, a forecast calling for $5,200 sounded like a gold bug’s fever dream. In fact, after this morning’s selloff… gold is sitting at just above $5,200.
While mainstream economists bicker about whether gold is overvalued — 45% of global fund managers now think so, up from just 10% a year ago — the money keeps flowing.
In China, demand has gone parabolic.
Shanghai Gold Warrants — which offer claims on physical gold outside the Western financial system — hit a record 100,000kg. These aren’t futures or ETFs. These are vault claims. Tangible. Transferable. Tradable.
Simultaneously, China just dumped another $6.1 billion in U.S. Treasurys — the lowest level of holdings since the financial crisis. Since the 2013 peak, their position is down $634 billion. They’re not hedging. They’re leaving.
📉 Debasement by Design, Populism Rises
In one refrain from our book Empire of Debt, we warned that late-stage credit systems always suffer the same fate: the debasement of money disguised as growth. Ray Dalio said the quiet part out loud in an interview yesterday:
“If you depreciate the money, it makes everything look like it’s going up.”
Which is precisely why the markets get jittery at the top. And why politics are as wacky and polarized as they have been.
In New York, Mayor Zohran Mamdani is demanding higher taxes on the rich to plug budget holes left by former Mayor Adams. He wants billions from Albany. Governor Hochul has yet to weigh in.
In California, Sergey Brin, Eric Schmidt, and other Silicon Valley billionaires are backing a new pro-business PAC to fight a proposed 5% wealth tax on the state’s 200 richest residents. Larry Page has already moved to Florida. The line to Nevada is forming.
Ray Dalio, again, with the map:
“When governments run large deficits and the debt is no longer bought willingly, they have two choices: raise taxes and cut spending, or print money. Those that can print, do. Those that can’t, fall apart.”
Populist politics surge. Moderates vanish. Scapegoating begins. The wealth gap widens until it becomes an impassable chasm.
⚔️ Iran, War, and the Last Resort
President Trump issued a grim warning to Tehran yesterday, saying “a massive armada” is en route and time is running out to strike a nuclear deal. If, as he claimed last summer, Iran’s nuclear sites were “obliterated,” why the new deadline?
The answer likely lies beneath the rhetoric. War is rarely about human rights, and almost never about democracy. It’s about money, energy, and fear.
Senator Marco Rubio, in a Foreign Relations hearing yesterday, laid it out:
“We need the posture to preemptively prevent an attack on American personnel.”
Translation: the U.S. sent more assets to the region… which may now need to be defended against the reaction they provoked. The tail wags the dog.
📉 Hemingway’s Clock
We are reminded of Hemingway’s famous quote after having volunteered for the front lines in Italy during World War I and schlepping supplies during the Spanish Civil War: “The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring temporary prosperity. Both bring permanent ruin.”
We have always wondered how it all comes to pass.
Watching the mayhem on the streets in Minneapolis, the miscues and outright lies… the deafening, siloed echo chambers enhanced by social media… and now AI… it’s not really hard to imagine how populist politics can and will ruin a good thing.
Better to mind your own business. And watch your money.
~ Addison
P.S. Looking for a quick reprieve? We’ve got a good one. On Grey Swan Live! today at 2 p.m. ET/11 a.m. PST, we’ll be joined by Ronan McMahon, our go-to source for crisis real estate investing.
Ronan’s fresh off scouting trips to Mexico, Panama, Paraguay… and yes, Venezuela. He says beachfront condos are going for $15,000. Not for everyone, but if you’re interested in owning tangible assets outside the blast radius of U.S. financial policy, it’s worth a look.
And on Friday, for paid-up annual Fraternity members, we’ll have a special session reviewing our model portfolio with Andrew Packer. As always, we’ll go over the charts on all our model portfolio positions and what we expect amid the unfolding chaos of 2026.
