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Ripple Effect

A Break in the Historic Inflation Pattern

Loading ...Addison Wiggin

June 10, 2025 • 1 minute, 3 second read


historic patternsInflation

A Break in the Historic Inflation Pattern

You know what the ol’ timers say about history. It rhymes, right?

We’ve been following one particular “rhyme” recently.

The rise of inflation over the past four years and the prospect for another have been humming along with the same tune as the Great Inflation of the 1968-1980 period.

Right now, the data is showing a small break – in a good way:

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The rate of inflation is trending lower.

That’s the good news.

The bad news?

Inflation may be trending lower as consumers pull back, especially on foreign goods with uncertain tariff rates. Tomorrow’s CPI reading and the PPI on Thursday should help shine a light in the dark on tariff price trends.

As trade issues get resolved and if the economy gets moving at a faster rate, inflation pressures may tick up again. As noted in this morning’s Swan Dive – inflation may simply be in what the Fed calls a “pause.”

Gold – stalwart bulwark against inflation since time immemorial – continues to hit all-time highs.

Silver is finally staging a catch-up rally.

Bitcoin – the new kid on the hard asset block – trades at nearly $110,000 today and looks poised to make new highs.

In short, there’s some relief on the inflation front. But only for now.


Gold: The Only Thing Standing Still

July 11, 2025 • Dominic Frisby

Since the US confiscation of Russian assets in 2022, pretty much every pull back to 50-day moving average (red line) has been bought, and they continue to be bought. The average is now flattening out, as you would expect with this summer consolidation, rather as it did late last year. Some sideways consolidation is good. Ideally, you want to see the short-, medium- and long-term moving averages all flatten and converge. There often follows a big move higher.

Gold: The Only Thing Standing Still
Households Get It, Even if Governments Don’t

July 11, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

We know many consumers continue to live paycheck to paycheck. After spiking higher, the drawdown in savings—cash that can be used in an emergency—is back to pre-pandemic levels.

While the overall debt picture is ugly, in some ways it isn’t – and that it may take some more time for a debt crisis to reach a kitchen countertop near you.

Households Get It, Even if Governments Don’t
The Rally That Didn’t Flinch

July 11, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As we knock off for the week approaching mid-summer, it strikes us how hard it is to distinguish signal from noise. Markets defying gravity gives us pause.

Don’t buy in at elevated prices.

Keep your asset allocation in full view.

Buy cheap.

Sell dear.

It’s a funny old world, isn’t it?

AI is buying engineers like they’re first-round picks. The military is investing in rare earths like it’s the 1950s space race. Tariffs are flying, cocoa’s getting scarce, and your cereal may soon come with a luxury markup.

None of it, likely, concerns your portfolio.

The Rally That Didn’t Flinch
Matt Milner: Now You Can Buy SpaceX — Should You?

July 10, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

This new wave of tokenized shares is exciting. It has the potential to break down walls and democratize access to pre-IPO giants.

But at the moment, it’s also risky, opaque, and largely unregulated.

So while we applaud the innovation, we urge caution — especially if you’re being offered something that seems too good to be true.

Matt Milner: Now You Can Buy SpaceX — Should You?