A Break in the Historic Inflation Pattern

June 10, 2025 • 1 minute, 3 second read

You know what the ol’ timers say about history. It rhymes, right?

We’ve been following one particular “rhyme” recently.

The rise of inflation over the past four years and the prospect for another have been humming along with the same tune as the Great Inflation of the 1968-1980 period.

Right now, the data is showing a small break – in a good way:

Turn Your Images On

The rate of inflation is trending lower.

That’s the good news.

The bad news?

Inflation may be trending lower as consumers pull back, especially on foreign goods with uncertain tariff rates. Tomorrow’s CPI reading and the PPI on Thursday should help shine a light in the dark on tariff price trends.

As trade issues get resolved and if the economy gets moving at a faster rate, inflation pressures may tick up again. As noted in this morning’s Swan Dive – inflation may simply be in what the Fed calls a “pause.”

Gold – stalwart bulwark against inflation since time immemorial – continues to hit all-time highs.

Silver is finally staging a catch-up rally.

Bitcoin – the new kid on the hard asset block – trades at nearly $110,000 today and looks poised to make new highs.

In short, there’s some relief on the inflation front. But only for now.

Ripple Effect

A Break in the Historic Inflation Pattern

Addison Wiggin

June 10, 2025 • 1 minute, 3 second read

historic patterns Inflation

You know what the ol’ timers say about history. It rhymes, right?

We’ve been following one particular “rhyme” recently.

The rise of inflation over the past four years and the prospect for another have been humming along with the same tune as the Great Inflation of the 1968-1980 period.

Right now, the data is showing a small break – in a good way:

Turn Your Images On

The rate of inflation is trending lower.

That’s the good news.

The bad news?

Gold – stalwart bulwark against inflation since time immemorial – continues to hit all-time highs.

Silver is finally staging a catch-up rally.

Bitcoin – the new kid on the hard asset block – trades at nearly $110,000 today and looks poised to make new highs.

In short, there’s some relief on the inflation front. But only for now.

Pablo Hill: An Unmistakable Pattern in Copper

December 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

As copper flowed into the United States, LME inventories thinned and backwardation steepened. Higher U.S. pricing, tariff protection, and lower political risk made American warehouses the most attractive destination for metal. Each new shipment strengthened the spread.

The arbitrage, once triggered, became self-reinforcing. Traders were not participating in theory; they were responding to the physical incentives in front of them.

The United States had quietly become the marginal buyer of the world’s most important industrial metal. China, long the gravitational center of global copper demand, found itself on the outside.

Pablo Hill: An Unmistakable Pattern in Copper

Bears on the Prowl

December 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Under the frost-crusted shrubs, the bears are sniffing around for scraps of bloody meat.

They smell the subtle rot of credit stress, central-bank desperation, and debt that’s beginning to steam in the cold. They’re not charging — not yet. But they’re present. Watching. Testing the doors.

Retail investors, last in line, await the Fed’s final announcement of the year on Wednesday. Then the central planners of the world get their turn: the Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank.

Treasuries just suffered their worst week since June. And in Japan — the quiet godfather of global liquidity — something fundamental is breaking.

Silver continues its blistering ascent. Gold and bitcoin have settled in at $4,200 and $92,000, respectively.

How To Guarantee Higher Prices

December 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

It’s absurd, really, for any politician to be talking about “affordability.”

The data is clear. If higher prices are your goal, let the government “fix” them.

Mandates, paperwork, and busybodies telling you what you can and can’t do – it’s not a surprise why costs add up.

In contrast, if you want lower prices, do nothing– zilch. Let the market work.

Gideon Ashwood: The Bondquake in Tokyo: Why Japan’s Shock Is Just the Beginning

December 5, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

For 30 years, Japan was the land where interest rates went to die.

The Bank of Japan used yield-curve control to keep long-term rates sedated. Traders joked that shorting Japanese bonds was the “widow-maker trade.”

Not anymore.

On November 20, 2025, everything changed. Quietly, but decisively.

The Bank of Japan finally pulled the plug on decades of easy money. Negative rates were removed. Yield-curve control was abandoned. The policy rate was lifted to a 17-year high.

Suddenly, global markets had to reprice something they had ignored for years.

What happens when the world’s largest creditor nation stops exporting cheap capital and starts pulling it back home?

The answer came fast. Bond yields in Europe and the United States began climbing. The Japanese yen strengthened sharply. Wall Street faltered.

Gideon Ashwood: The Bondquake in Tokyo: Why Japan’s Shock Is Just the Beginning

Pablo Hill: An Unmistakable Pattern in Copper

December 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

The arbitrage, once triggered, became self-reinforcing. Traders were not participating in theory; they were responding to the physical incentives in front of them.

The United States had quietly become the marginal buyer of the world’s most important industrial metal. China, long the gravitational center of global copper demand, found itself on the outside.

Bears on the Prowl

December 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

Under the frost-crusted shrubs, the bears are sniffing around for scraps of bloody meat.

Treasuries just suffered their worst week since June. And in Japan — the quiet godfather of global liquidity — something fundamental is breaking.

Silver continues its blistering ascent. Gold and bitcoin have settled in at $4,200 and $92,000, respectively.

How To Guarantee Higher Prices

December 8, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

It’s absurd, really, for any politician to be talking about “affordability.”

The data is clear. If higher prices are your goal, let the government “fix” them.

Mandates, paperwork, and busybodies telling you what you can and can’t do – it’s not a surprise why costs add up.

In contrast, if you want lower prices, do nothing– zilch. Let the market work.

Gideon Ashwood: The Bondquake in Tokyo: Why Japan’s Shock Is Just the Beginning

December 5, 2025 • Addison Wiggin

For 30 years, Japan was the land where interest rates went to die.

The Bank of Japan used yield-curve control to keep long-term rates sedated. Traders joked that shorting Japanese bonds was the “widow-maker trade.”

Not anymore.

On November 20, 2025, everything changed. Quietly, but decisively.

The Bank of Japan finally pulled the plug on decades of easy money. Negative rates were removed. Yield-curve control was abandoned. The policy rate was lifted to a 17-year high.

Suddenly, global markets had to reprice something they had ignored for years.

What happens when the world’s largest creditor nation stops exporting cheap capital and starts pulling it back home?

The answer came fast. Bond yields in Europe and the United States began climbing. The Japanese yen strengthened sharply. Wall Street faltered.